PROSPECTS FOR SINO-EU RELATIONS IN 2009

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 000176

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2029
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM ECON KIRF XG EZ CH
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR SINO-EU RELATIONS IN 2009

REF: A. A. 08 BEIJING 4372

B. B. 08 BEIJING 2333

Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlso
n, Reasons 1.4 (B/D).


1. (C) Summary: The cancellation of the China-EU Summit,
slated for December 1, was the culmination of a year of poor
relations between China and France, according to European
Embassy contacts. Since France ceded the rotating EU
Presidency to the Czech Republic on January 1, however, China
has made several public gestures that indicate a
rapprochement is underway in Sino-EU relations. Despite
already improved EU-China relations under the Czech
presidency, many potential pitfalls lay ahead, including
sensitive anniversaries, the potential resettlement of the
Chinese-citizen Uighurs detained at Guantanamo, and existing
bilateral frictions. The Dalai Lama will continue to be a
source of tension, contacts reported. End Summary.

Relations at the Time of the Postponed Summit
--------------


2. (C) A series of missteps between the Chinese and French
Governments brought Sino-French relations to a nadir in late
2008 with China's cancellation of the planned December 1
EU-China summit, UK first Secretary Gareth Ward told PolOff
January 15. Relations were already strained, with the
Chinese side angry over widespread and well-publicized
protests during the Paris leg of the Olympic Torch Relay and
the French side still smarting from an evident boycott of
tourism to France led by the Mayor of Beijing (ref B). These
already-strained relations led to a breakdown in
communication regarding French President Nicolas Sarkozy's
intention to meet the Dalai Lama, which resulted in China
canceling the summit rather than offering a different
diplomatic response that might have saved the endeavor, Ward
added. Multiple European Embassy contacts reported that
China's cancellation of the summit led many Europeans to
question whether a new breed of hardliners had risen to
prominence in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. While
previous meetings with the Dalai Lama, particularly those by
heads of state, had resulted in a downturn in relations, the
severity of China's response to France and the EU was
unprecedented, German Second Secretary Dirk Lechelt told us
January 20. UK First Secretary Ward agreed, noting that
China felt it "had nothing to lose" from such a hard-line
response, and, as such, used the Dalai Lama meeting as an
excuse to forcefully reassert its position on Tibet.

Sino-EU Rapprochement
--------------


3. (C) Whatever its objectives in canceling the China-EU
summit, China appeared to have "overplayed its hand" and was
now making overt gestures of rapprochement with the EU, Dutch
First Secretary Rob Anderson told us January 20. These
gestures included a January 7 telephone call between Czech
Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg and Chinese Foreign
Minister Yang Jiechi shortly after the Czech Republic assumed
the EU Presidency, as well as the EU-China Strategic
Dialogue, held between Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Tomas
Pojar and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Li Hui January 19 in
Beijing (septel). Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is slated to
visit Europe January 25-February 2 to attend the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and will stop in
several other European cities, including Brussels, where he
will meet with European Commission President Jose Manuel
Barroso. According to UK First Secretary Gareth Ward, the
stop in Brussels was entirely at Premier Wen's own
instigation, and was a reciprocal visit for Barroso's April
24-25, 2008 visit to China. Belgian Second Secretary Tim Van
Anderlecht noted that Barroso had a "light touch" in dealing
with China, and always preferred to tackle large, global
issues such as climate change and the current financial
crisis rather than focus on "relatively insignificant
irritations," such as the Dalai Lama.

Czech Presidency Prospects: Potential Pitfalls Abound
-------------- --------------


4. (C) While the Czech Government, which assumed the
rotating EU-presidency January 1, might fare better in its
relations with China than the French Government did, many
potential pitfalls remained, EU Commission Political
Counselor Alex McLachlan told us January 20. He noted that a
number of sensitive anniversaries would fall during the Czech
Presidency, including the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen
massacre on June 4 and the first-ever celebration of "Serf
Liberation Day" March 28 to mark the "launching of democratic
reforms" in Tibet. Any number of these anniversaries could
result in riots or protests that might prompt a statement of

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concern or condemnation from the EU Presidency, which would,
in turn, sour relations with China, he said. McLachlan noted
the Chinese might cast individual bilateral issues as related
to the whole of Europe, such as the potential resettlement of
the Chinese-citizen Uighers detained at Guantanamo Bay to a
European nation.

Czech Approach to China
--------------


5. (C) On a bilateral basis, the Czechs might run into
problems with the Chinese over the course of their
Presidency, Dutch Embassy Second Secretary Rogier Hekking
told us January 20. The Czech Government had a reputation as
being "tough on human rights," he said, and the "08 Charter,"
the document currently in circulation in China that calls for
greater respect for human rights, was based on a similar
document, Charter '77, that had called for human rights in
then-Czechoslovakia. Czech DCM Ivana Grollova noted that the
Czech legislators often felt they had "little to lose" in
criticizing China, given the low volume of trade between the
Czech Republic and China, and previously went so far as to
fly the Tibetan flag over the Czech Parliament building.

Keeping the Dalai Lama in Czech
--------------


6. (C) The Dalai Lama himself was "not going anywhere," UK
First Secretary Gareth Ward noted, and would undoubtedly
continue to factor into China-EU relations. China would be
"shooting itself in the foot" if it continued to respond as
it did with France to any nation that dealt with the Dalai
Lama, he said. German Second Secretary Dirk Lechelt noted
that the German media was slated to give the Dalai Lama a
prize later this month, and the city of Rome offered honorary
citizenship to the Dalai Lama during a potential visit
February 9. As such, the way forward promised to remain
"rocky" for the time being, he said.

EU's Message: Rapprochement is in China's Interest
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Following the cancellation of the EU-China summit, EU
member nations presented a unified front that China had
"missed a great opportunity" by cancelling, UK First
Secretary Gareth Ward said. While the summit would have been
an opportunity to discuss topics China sometimes considered
"uncomfortable," such as human rights and climate change, it
also presented an opportunity not only for commercial
expansion but also for technology transfer between the EU and
China, Ward said. China's MFA spokesperson Jiang Yu appeared
January 13 to concede that good relations were in China's
interest, making statements that China seeks to handle the
relationship from a "strategic and long-term perspective" and
that the two sides had reached a "good consensus" on how to
deepen relations in the New Year.


8. (C) China was now "making up for lost time," German Second
Secretary Dirk Lechelt said, and would be using Premier Wen
Jiabao's trip to Europe as an opportunity to finalize
contracts not signed during the cancelled summit. He noted
that neither side considered the trip to be a "mini-Summit"
or a make-up of the cancelled event, which would be
"implausible and impractical" during the Czech Presidency due
to a lack of planning and logistics complications. Czech
Embassy Second Secretary Veronika Musilova declared a summit
"extremely impractical," as the Chinese side had been
noncommittal, and the Czech side was unwilling to commit to a
summit later in its presidency as the looming sensitive
anniversaries in China made postponing or cancelling the
summit too likely. She noted that the Swedish Government had
already begun making plans to host the China-EU summit once
it assumed the Presidency of the EU in the latter half of
this year.
PICCUTA