Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BEIJING1467
2009-06-02 10:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beijing
Cable title:  

BEIJING GEARS UP FOR JUNE 4 ANNIVERSARY

Tags:  PGOV PHUM CH 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO8240
OO RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHBJ #1467/01 1531057
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021057Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BEIJING
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4255
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 001467 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2034
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH
SUBJECT: BEIJING GEARS UP FOR JUNE 4 ANNIVERSARY

REF: A. SHANGHAI 245

B. OSC CPP20090601615001

C. BEIJING 1390

Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlso
n. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BEIJING 001467

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2034
TAGS: PGOV PHUM CH
SUBJECT: BEIJING GEARS UP FOR JUNE 4 ANNIVERSARY

REF: A. SHANGHAI 245

B. OSC CPP20090601615001

C. BEIJING 1390

Classified By: Classified by Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carlso
n. Reasons 1.4 (b/d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) On the eve of the 20th anniversary of the June 4, 1989
violent crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen
Square, China's security forces are warning well-known
activists against protest activities and putting many under
virtual house arrest. Despite tight Party control of
Internet content about "June 4," comments by netizens in
support of student protester goals as well as video files of
the event are accessible. Embassy contacts predict that the
combination of tight security, ignorance of the event among
many, and low political motivation will succeed in preventing
activists from using the occasion to effectively challenge
the Party. Two well-placed contacts said that a future
official re-interpretation of the crackdown is possible, but
it would not happen soon and it would be the result of a
change in the political order, not of demands for such a
re-interpretation. End Summary.

Roundup of Activists, Internet Loopholes
--------------


2. (C) China's security forces are warning well-known
activists against protest activities on June 4, putting many
under virtual house arrest and sending others out of the
city, according to Embassy contacts and foreign news reports.
In separate emails to PolOff, rights activist Yu Jie and
democracy activist Qi Zhiyong (who was wounded by gunfire
during the 1989 crackdown) said they were being confined to
their homes by security guards and not allowed to see friends
or journalists. Each said the security sweep was much
broader than during last summer's Beijing Olympics. Yu, who
said he was prevented from attending Church on Sundays and
that his friends were being harassed, claimed that many
people were receiving similar treatment. Qi said that he had
received a "severe warning" to not accept phone calls from
journalists outside China and that his Internet access was
blocked. He anticipated being escorted out of Beijing at
some point and only allowed to return to Beijing after the
anniversary had passed.


3. (SBU) The Party has imposed tight control of June

4-related Internet content, including in blog posts and BBS
forum discussions, in the run-up to the anniversary.
Although most searches on both Chinese and outside search
engines yield few results, the few blogs and BBS posts that
are accessible appear to be largely sympathetic to the goals
of the 1989 student protestors and urge public discussion of
the anniversary (ref C). Despite these Party efforts to
block June 4 discussion on the Internet, PolOff discovered a
repository of hundreds of June 4-related video files on a
Chinese website, all of which could easily be downloaded and
viewed. The files, all from Taiwan media, covered the
lead-up to the military crackdown, the massacre itself, and
the aftermath of the assault, as well as commemorations of
June 4 from 1989 to the present. The files were posted on a
popular Internet and media roundup site through a link to
"May 35," the code name used by many Chinese netizens to
refer to June 4. Blogger contacts of Consulate General
Shenyang reported strict censorship of the Internet in
northeast China and said they were unable to obtain
information on the upcoming anniversary.

Not Much Action Expected
--------------


4. (C) Secretary General of the Party School-affiliated think
tank China Reform Forum (CRF),Wang Xudong (protect),told
PolOffs that although there might be a very small number of
minor incidents throughout the country on June 4, in general
there was very little awareness of, or interest in, the
anniversary among the Chinese public. Wang echoed other
Embassy interlocutors in emphasizing that young Chinese
citizens of the post-Tiananmen era knew very little about the
events of 1989 and that the Party had largely succeeded in
insulating this potentially activist segment of the
population from using Tiananmen-related grievances as a way
to vent political dissatisfaction.


5. (C) Conversations with an Embassy youth contact
anecdotally supported Wang's observation. Huang Lin
(protect),a late-twenties corporate communications manager
in Beijing, said she remembered providing food for both
students and soldiers as an elementary school student during

BEIJING 00001467 002 OF 003


the 1989 protests, but otherwise had no memory of the event.
When she had called a friend who was now a division chief at
the Ministry of Commerce for more information, the friend had
claimed he could not remember what June 4 was. Huang said
she intended to visit the Square on June 4 out of curiosity
in case anything happened. She and some friends gathering
together that day for a different purpose were jokingly
calling their planned meeting a "June 4 commemoration" event.


6. (C) According to Consulate Shenyang contacts, in northeast
China teachers similarly did not seem concerned about "issues
of stability" and university students were not familiar with
the events of June 4. Nonetheless, close contacts at
Shenyang Normal University told Consulate officers that the
university was required to "keep a close watch on student
activities and movements." In addition, the university had
been instructed to host a variety "harmonious activities" for
the students in the spring and early summer, presumably to
keep the students engaged in other affairs.

Zhao, Dissident Message Do not Resonate
--------------


7. (C) In the view of Lai Hairong (protect),a prominent
scholar at the Central Compilation and Translation Bureau
(CCTB),a CCP Central Committee think tank, the June 4
anniversary would not generate political tension "in and of
itself." In a meeting with PolOffs June 1, Lai said that the
occasion could "be used as a tool by those who want to fan
existing resentments" but he did not think this approach
would resonate with the public. The economy was doing
reasonably well, and people had seen progress in the
political sphere, such as increased transparency, respect for
human rights, and participation in the political process.
Moreover, he said, neither the followers of former Party
chief Zhao Ziyang, who was purged following the military
crackdown in Tiananmen in 1989, nor contemporary dissidents,
had a political vision for China that went beyond the vision
that many in China had already embraced. (Note: Zhao's
secretly recorded personal recollections of Tiananmen were
smuggled out of China and recently made public. Even though
PRC media are not allowed to carry news of the memoirs, their
publication is known to many Embassy contacts and has been
the subject of the blogosphere.) Lai claimed that because of
wide exposure to outside ideas, many people now believed in
the ideals of democracy and human rights and were divided
only over how best to pursue those ideals.

"Reversal of Verdict" Possible, But Not Soon
--------------


8. (C) CRF's Wang emphasized that a reversal of the Tiananmen
verdict was not a near-term possibility. He noted that while
some foreign observers hoped that a reexamination of the
Tiananmen events would help propel democratic reform in
China, the reality was just the opposite. It would only be
after China adopted democracy that Chinese society would be
able to cope with such a reexamination. Indeed, June 4 would
be only one, and probably not the most important, of the
grievances against the Government and Party that would
require reconciliation.


9. (C) CCTB scholar Lai agreed that while one "cannot rule
out" an official re-interpretation of Tiananmen in the
future, this would not happen in the next ten years. Should
such a historical revision occur, he said, it would not be in
response to direct demands for a "reversal of verdict," but
rather as a result of a broader change in the political and
ideological environment. A higher level of human rights
protection and more "space" for diversity of views would
create the conditions for such a decision, in Lai's view.
Most people, he said, agreed that the Party's handling of the
student protest through uses of force had been a "harsh
over-reaction." However, most also thought the student
demands had been unrealistic, Lai said. Therefore, an
official re-interpretation would take into account both of
these factors. Whatever the true feelings of top leaders
regarding the 1989 event, they would have to calculate the
costs and benefits of making such a revision: would it
benefit them by boosting their legitimacy or would it open
the door to ever-expanding political demands?

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The PRC Government has devoted a great deal of
pressure, propaganda and policy attention to ensuring that
the twentieth anniversary of June 4, 1989, will not become a
locus for political grievances. Well-placed observers in
Beijing -- in the Party, in government and in academia --
generally believe that these efforts have been successful.
Given the obvious risk in doing otherwise, most Chinese

BEIJING 00001467 003 OF 003


citizens that remember the events of June 4 are choosing to
defer any call to reexamine the tragedy for the sake of
short-term stability and immediate economic interests.
PICCUTA