PRC: CHINESE SCHOLARS SUGGEST ACHIEVING NEAR-TERM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 001172

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/CM, IO/UNP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2024
TAGS: PREL UNSC KUNR UN CH JA RS
SUBJECT: PRC: CHINESE SCHOLARS SUGGEST ACHIEVING NEAR-TERM
UN SECURITY COUNCIL REFORM DIFFICULT, UNWARRANTED

Classified By: Minister-Counselor for Political Affairs
Aubrey Carlson, reasons 1.4 (b/d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Chinese participants at a
UK/France-sponsored seminar on UN Security Council Reform
April 29 uniformly affirmed the need for UN Security Council
reform, though none expressed any urgency in acting on this
need. While offering generally positive views of the
UK/France "intermediate option" for UNSC reform, many
participants did not support specific elements in the
proposal, including establishing criteria for the
longer-term, renewable seats. Participants were divided on
the basic elements of categories of membership, regional
representation, and size of UNSC expansion, and suggested
that disagreement among UN member states over the basic
elements of UNSC reform might be difficult to overcome, thus
dooming any meaningful UNSC reform efforts in the near
future. A number suggested that the G-20 grouping would
become a more relevant forum for addressing issues currently
within the purview of the UN Security Council. End Summary.

Conference Details
--------------


2. (C) Four Chinese academics, one former PRC diplomat and UN
official, and a representative of the Russian Embassy, in
addition to PolOffs, participated in an April 29
invitation-only seminar on UN Security Council reform
sponsored by the British and French Embassies and the
Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy.

The Need for UNSC Reform
--------------


3. (C) Chinese participants uniformly affirmed the need for
UN Security Council reform. Chen Xulong from the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs-affiliated China Institute of International
Studies (CIIS) said a new world order needed a new government
structure, and Gao Zugui, Director of the Center for
Strategic Studies of the Ministry of State
Security-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary
International Relations (CICIR),said the new threats of the
21st century required UNSC reform. Li Dongyan from the China
Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) added that reform was
needed to make the UNSC more accountable and transparent.
However, she said China was both supportive and "cautious and
defensive" in its approach to Council reform. Chairman of
the UN Association of China Chen Jian, former UN
Undersecretary General and former PRC Ambassador to Japan,
said "Council reform is overdue, but the fundamental
resolution of Security Council reform is pre-mature."
Expanding on this paradox, Chen noted that while the world
had evolved significantly since WWII, creating the necessity
for a more representative, effective and legitimate Security
Council, no precipitating events had occurred since WWII that
had raised the status of any country to the leadership level
of the current P-5 countries.

In No Rush
--------------


4. (C) Despite being pressed a number of times by the French
Embassy representative on the consequences of failing to act
on reform, none of the Chinese participants expressed any
urgency to implement UN Security Council reform. Ambassador
Chen said that the UN Security Council reform process was an
"evolution" not a "revolution," and any workable solution had
to be an "interim" one, adding that no chronological
"landmark" existed to serve as a deadline for UN reform.
CICIR's Gao suggested that reforming the IMF was a more
urgent task and one that would delay for one or two years UN
Security Council reform efforts.

Receptive to the "Intermediate Option"
--------------


5. (C) Participants offered mixed but generally positive
views of the UK/France "intermediate option." Some
criticized the idea of establishing criteria for determining
countries' eligibility for longer-term, renewable seats
rather than deciding such membership through elections,
saying a criteria-based system might increase the
effectiveness of the UN Security Council but would also
sacrifice its representativeness and legitimacy.

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"Negotiations on criteria would take a decade," Ambassador
Chen quipped. CICIR's Gao noted that states with no
opportunity for selection to the Security Council "would not
accept any solution," so while the United Kingdom and France
emphasized "global contributions" as the most important
criteria for UNSC membership selection, regional support was
even more important. Ambassador Chen added that regional
elections to the new UNSC seats would "lend legitimacy." If
counties wanted to be reelected, he continued, "they must
live in harmony with their neighbors."

Disparate Blueprints on Representation and Size
-------------- --


6. (C) Chinese participants suggested that disagreement among
UN member states over the basic elements of UNSC reform might
be difficult to overcome, thus dooming any meaningful UNSC
reform efforts in the near future. Participants
themselves were divided on the basic elements of reform,
including categories of membership, regional representation,
and size of UNSC expansion. Taking a minimalist approach,
Ambassador Chen proposed revising Article 23 of the UN
Charter to allow non-permanent member countries to be
re-elected to the Security Council, a notion supported by the
Russian Embassy representative. CIIS's Chen Xulong proposed
four categories of membership: 1) P5 members with veto
power; 2) 4-5 new permanent members; 3) 5 quasi-permanent
members; 4) 10 non-permanent members. CICIR's Gao said the
core of UNSC reform was enlargement and proposed that at
least 6-10 new seats be added, with developing states
(especially from Africa and Latin America) getting priority.
CASS's Li Dongyan similarly suggested adding two permanent
seats for Latin America and Africa and creating an additional
six new regional seats with five-year terms.


7. (C) Renmin University School of International Studies
Professor Pang Zhongying took a different tack, suggesting
UNSC reformers draw lessons from the problems of European
Union enlargement. He proposed adding just two African seats
and one Latin American seat, noting problems with potential
permanent members such as the G-4 (Japan, Germany, Brazil and
India). Pang labeled both Japan and Germany as
"controversial" choices for permanent membership, and
highlighted Japan in particular, as "not constructive" in its
international role.

Unanimity on No Veto Expansion
--------------


8. (C) While most participants suggested that UNSC expansion
of up to 25 members would be feasible, none suggested
expanding veto power beyond the P5 members. (The Russian
Embassy representative commented that a UNSC with over 25
members was "exorbitant.") CASS's Li assessed that the
current veto-wielding P5 members reflected "today's balance
of power." CIIS's Chen Xulong agreed, remarking that the
current veto alignment "reflects today's world order" but
that the veto issue was also "the main sticking point
dividing member states." CIIS' Chen Xulong suggested that P5
unanimity on the veto question was necessary to build a
larger consensus in the UN.

G-20: Ersatz Expanded UNSC?
--------------


9. (C) A number of participants suggested that the G-20
grouping would become a more relevant forum for addressing
issues currently within the purview of the UN Security
Council. Ambassador Chen remarked that the G-8 had begun as
an economic group, and then started to tackle political
issues, and perhaps the G-20 might do the same. If the G-20
became even more successful in resolving global challenges,
"is the Security Council even necessary?" he asked. Renmin
University's Pang expressed hope that the United Nations and
Breton Woods system would be merged and integrated to reflect
the realities of this century.
PICCUTA