ONE BAATHIST LEADER SEEKS "GREEN LIGHT" FROM USG TO RETURN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000043

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/16/2019
TAGS: POL PREL PINR PTER IZ SY IR
SUBJECT: ONE BAATHIST LEADER SEEKS "GREEN LIGHT" FROM USG TO RETURN
TO IRAQ WHILE ANOTHER VOWS TO CONTINUE ARMED RESISTANCE

BASRAH 00000043 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: John Naland, Leader, PRT Basra, Dept of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary: Awad al-Abdan, General Secretary of the
Movement for the Liberation of the South, briefed PRT officials
July 15 on his recent meeting in Syria with senior-ranking
officials from two factions of the Baath party command.
Al-Abdan met with Ahmed Younis al-Ahmed, who reportedly
expressed a desire to re-engage himself and his followers
peacefully in Iraq's democratic process. Al-Abdan also met with
Mohamed al-Murshadi, the spokesman of former vice president Izat
Ibrahim al-Duri -- the highest-ranking Baathist still at large.
Al-Duri, according to his spokesman, recognizes that the
political landscape in Iraq has changed and is urging his
followers to join the political process. That said, al-Duri is
reportedly continuing to wage armed struggle in Salah ad Din,
and is funding renewed resistance efforts by the al-Nakshabendi
Army. Though al-Abdan's motives for the meetings remain
unclear, he may have seen a chance to gain political support
from adversarial Baathist leaders, and ultimately a seat in the
national parliament. End summary.

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A Baathist Leader in Poor Health...
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2. (C) Al-Abdan said that he met with al-Ahmed a month ago in
Damascus in a three-story building that the Government of Syria
(GOS) has provided Al-Ahmed for his use. Al-Abdan expressed
surprise at the GOS's largesse, given that it has continually
denied al-Ahmed's presence in Syria. Al-Abdan said Al-Ahmed met
him in his office, which was decorated with pictures of himself
and Saddam Hussein at various events. Al Al-Ahmed told al-Abdan
that his health was not good, and al-Abdan said that al-Ahmed
had aged considerably.


3. (C) During the two-hour conversation, Al-Ahmed touched on
various issues. He reported how the GOS had made life easy for
him in Damascus in an effort to keep him from establishing
relations with the U.S. or going to Iran. Al-Ahmed denied
rumors that he had been in Iran, said he had no interest in
going there, and in fact saw Iran as a bigger threat to Iraq
than the U.S. Remarking on al-Duri, with whom he severed
political ties in 2006, Al-Ahmed stated that he remained
completely at odds with al-Duri and his post-Saddam positions
and tactics.

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Yearns to Come Home
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4. (C) Al-Ahmed reportedly told al-Abdan of his desire to
return to Iraq and engage peacefully in the political process
without being subject to arrest by the USG or GOI. Al-Ahmed
recognized that things had changed in Iraq, conceding that the
U.S. presence in Iraq was a "fact," as was the existence of
political parties other than the Baath party. Al-Ahmed said all
he needed was a "green light" from the USG to start the
reintegration process.


5. (C) Also at the meeting were Abu Hussein (an official
unknown to al-Abdan) and Ali Jabara, a high-ranking Baathist in
Basra prior to 2003, who is now aligned with al-Ahmed. In
subsequent conversation, Jabara assured al-Abdan of the
sincerity of al-Ahmed's position. When al-Adban asked if
al-Ahmed had been speaking personally or officially, Jabara said
his statements had been official, made on behalf of all
Baathists in his camp. Jabara stressed that Al-Ahmed's
conversation should be treated confidentially and not divulged
to anyone in the GOS.

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Saddam's Former VP Continues Armed Struggle...
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6. (C) While in Damascus, al-Abdan said that he also met with
Mohamed al-Murshadi the spokesman for Izat Ibrahim al-Duri.
Al-Murshadi reportedly said that al-Duri and his followers were
currently in Salah ad Din waging an armed struggle. He added
that al-Duri's camp, which al-Abdan characterized as much better
organized and funded than al-Ahmed's camp, was funding the
al-Nakshabendi Army for a new resistance effort in Iraq.
Al-Abdan could not ascertain whether the army would launch
attacks before U.S. forces departed or wait for the U.S. pullout
and target only Iraqi security forces.

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While Seeking Power through the Ballot Box
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7. (C) Al-Abdan said that al-Murshadi readily dismissed his
pleas for al-Duri's camp to stop its violence and "save Iraqi
blood." Al-Murshadi said that armed struggle would continue,

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but added that al-Duri's followers would also seek power through
the political process. Al-Murshadi said that al-Duri had
changed his political thinking in recognition of the political
realities in Iraq. Al-Duri was looking to fund one or more
political parties that sympathize with the Baathists, and was
urging his followers to run for national office as independents.
He added that al-Duri did not want to support or ally with
Dialogue Front, because al-Duri viewed its leader, Saleh
al-Mutlak, as closely aligned with the U.S.

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Bionote
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8. (C) Awad al-Abdan, formerly head of the southern branch of
the Dialogue Front, is the founder and General Secretary of the
Movement for the Liberation of the South. His movement seeks to
diminish Iranian influence in southern Iraq through peaceful
means. These include public anti-Iranian demonstrations,
conferences designed to highlight Iranian influence, and
economic boycotts of Iranian goods (the second one is scheduled
for launch on September 1). They may also include legal
actions; Al-Abdan is considering a lawsuit against Mohamed Nasir
Rida Bagbayan, the Iranian Consul General in Basra since 2003,
for supposed interference in Iraqi internal affairs, including
violation of Iraqi High Election Commission restrictions placed
on him during the last elections. Al-Abdan is weighing a run
for public office, and told us that more than various parties,
including the Iraqi National Accord and the Dialogue Front, had
approached him about joining their coalitions for the national
elections in January. Al-Abdan declined to divulge his plans,
but said that if he did run for office, he would be looking to
align with a coalition after the election.

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Comment
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9. (C) Al-Abdan denies having been a member of the Baath party,
but recent meetings with two senior Baath officials in competing
camps certainly raise questions. An obvious one is the
motivation for his meetings in Syria. Al-Abdan's strong
anti-Iranian views (shared by the Baathists),his founding of a
movement to capitalize on them, and his easy access to Baathist
leaders could be read as signs that he is courting Baathist
support. As both al-Ahmed and al-Duri seek to join the
political process overtly or covertly, Al-Abdan may have seen a
chance to gain their political support, and ultimately a seat in
the national parliament. End comment.
NALAND