BOZIZE'S SUPPORT FOR BASHIR: THE CAR PERSPECTIVE

UNCLAS BANGUI 000064

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM CT SU
SUBJECT: BOZIZE'S SUPPORT FOR BASHIR: THE CAR PERSPECTIVE

REF: BANGUI 061


1. (SBU) CAR president Francois Bozize's public demonstration of
support for Sudanese president Bashir (reftel) is easy to
understand in the context of good neighborliness and African
solidarity, but other factors may be at play. Bozize fears,
with some reason, that he may also be under investigation by the
ICC. Bozize attended the opening of the ICC's Bangui office and
was apparently happy to have investigations conducted into the
responsibility of former president Felix-Ange Patasse for the
abuses committed by former DRC Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba
when Bemba's MLC forces came to Patasse's aid in 2002 (Bemba's
excesses in CAR in 2001 occurred before the court came into
being and are thus outside the court's jurisdiction).


2. (SBU) Bozize has become increasingly troubled by the prospect
that he may also be investigated, and possibly charged, in
relation to the excesses of his own forces after he took power
on March 15, 2003. In August 2008 he wrote to UNSYG Ban
requesting suspension of the proceedings against Bemba.


3. (SBU) The Bozize government's human rights issues are more
those of error and omission rather than policy and commission.
The Central African Government (CARG) has not directly targeted
groups or individuals; there are no known political prisoners
nor have there been systematic massacres of political or ethnic
groups. At the same time, there is no evidence that the CARG
sees any need to protect human rights. Thus the military is
quite willing to burn villages and conduct small massacres,
perhaps as much in frustration at their inability to locate
rebel groups as for any other reason. The result, of course, is
massive population displacement and a strong conviction on the
part of the population that the demands of, and thefts by, the
rebels are less dangerous than the actions of the CARG.
Similarly, the police and military, and most especially the
Presidential Guard (GP) commit all manner of crimes; even the
murder of a police commissioner, with total impunity, (Think
Tontons Macoutes). The results are raising popular discontent.
Our repeated message that this weakens CARG's legitimacy seems
to fall on deaf ears. Indeed, the most common reaction is that
the CARG's hard line is justified by the existence of rebels,
etc. A vicious cycle that appeared to have been broken at the
end of 2007 may be recommencing.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The ICC brings a new dimension to the whole
human rights/good governance issue. If it acts as deterrence,
so much the better, but based on Bozize's actions and the
declarations of the African Union, we are not optimistic that
the ICC is going to provide a silver bullet, at least not in the
Central African Republic. Progress on protection of human
rights is likely to require a hard, bilateral slog.


5. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: Another possible factor is a
reported deterioration in Bozize's relationship with Chadian
president Idriss Deby (Septel follows).

COOK