THE BANGUI SPRING HAS COME TO AN END

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000047

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C SSARDAR, MASHRAF, SLOPEZ, KWYCOFF
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR CANDERSON
AFRICOM FOR KOCH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: THE BANGUI SPRING HAS COME TO AN END

REF: BANGUI 00012; BANGUI 00045, BANGUI 00046


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: 2009 began on a note of unprecedented
optimism; the formal peace accords with all major rebel groups
and the completion of another "Political Dialogue" made it
possible to imagine that real progress might be possible. To be
sure, all was not perfect; the government of national unity
looked more like just one more shuffle of the same suspects and
it was not clear that the opposition, armed and disarmed, had
begun any effort to get to know each other or organize
themselves into the kinds of groups that might be able to
influence the future through the follow on committees and thus
lay the foundations for successful elections in 2010. This has
all changed for the worse in the last month. This telegram is a
catalog of the things that AmEmbassy Bangui is following. It is
too early to assess the full implications and interrelationships
between these events, but it is clear that at best, the "Bangui
Spring" is over. At worst, the Bozize government may face the
real prospect of collapse or overthrow in the coming year. END
SUMMARY

--------------
NEW ARMED GROUP IN THE NORTH
--------------


2. (SBU) As reported 09 BANGUI 12, there is a new armed group
(CPJP - Patriotic Convention for Justice and Peace) that is
active in the north. This is particularly worrisome because:

-- While the group draws its force from long term ethnic tension
between the Rounga and Goula tribes, the leadership of the group
may well be Chadian or Sudanese; former members of the President
Bozize's Presidential Guard (GP). Intelligent observers in the
region, to include the Sultan/Mayor of Ndele (STRICTLY PROTECT)
are very worried that conflict will spread across the Vakaga
region unless the Central African Government (CARG) takes
immediate action to resolve the issues. He sees no signs that
this is happening.

-- All indications are that President Bozize has decided to
"resolve the issue by force." He is reported to have said as
much in his Sango (but not French) speech in Ndele on World Food
Day and a Minister made the same comment to the DCM.

-- The FACA's apparent return to their failed tactics of
violence and intimidation has already produced a flow of over
5,000 refugees across the border to Chad with more following at
a rate of 150 per day. Furthermore at least 2,800 confirmed IPDs
have been documented north of Ndele.

--------------
JAIL BREAK IN BOSSAMBELE
--------------


3. (SBU) At 0100 on 14 February, unknown persons attacked the
military camp/prison at Bossambele. Reports and rumors are
contradictory, but it appears that:

-- Some 15 "Sudanese" were freed. This is believed to be a
group of anti-Khartoum rebels who were seized in Birao, CAR in
April of 2008. The group is reported to have fled to the north
and also reported to have abandoned a car on the eastern side of
Ndele, on the road to Birao.

-- Two guards were killed.

-- There are reports that part of the base was burned, including
the FACA trucks and, more ominously, there are reports that
quantities of "heavy" weapons were taken.


4. (SBU) While there is a press release that this attack was
carried out by the same group that is operating north of Ndele,
it seems unlikely that such a small group could cover so much
territory, so fast. Whatever the real truth, the attack is
reported to have been well organized and it is alarming that an

BANGUI 00000047 002 OF 003


armed group can attack the CAR's main prison, less than 300
kilometers from Bangui, with impunity.

--------------
NEW AND OLD PLAYERS IN THE SAME OLD GAME
--------------


5. (SBU) As reported 09 BANGUI 45, in the early morning of
Saturday, 21 February, elements from the FDPC (Democratic Front
of the Central African People) attacked the towns of Batangafo
and Kabo in Northwestern CAR and absconded with weapons and
ammunition. The FDPC, led by General Abdoulaye Miskine
(currently in Libya) claims that some 400 troops attacked the
town. Post believes the number was more likely 50, but more
troubling are reports that hundreds of demobilized FDPC
combatants have rejoined the group. Miskine, and his new
political ally Abakar Saboun of the MLCJ (Movement of the
Central African Liberators for Justice),rejected the national
peace talks of late last year and are believed to be agitating
for further concessions. The FDPC may be the force behind the
Bossambele prison break. (See their website at:
http://www.centrafriquefdpc.com/)

--------------
BAD GOVERNANCE AND BAD PRACTICES
--------------


6. (SBU) Perhaps lulled into a sense of security by the peace
accords and the Political Dialogue, the Bozize government
continues its practices of bad governance seeming to prefer to
focus on corruption and money making schemes rather than
addressing serious political challenges or development needs.
Examples include:

-- Appointment of Saifee Durbar as Vice Minister of Foreign
Affairs. Durbar, sought on fraud charges in France, has been
instrumental in frustrating the progress of the Canadian mining
company AXMIN (Aurafrique). As some thirty per cent of AXMIN's
stock is held by U.S. citizens, this is directly contrary to
U.S. economic interests.

-- The closure of eight of the twelve licensed diamond trading
companies in Bangui as well as the seizure of all diamonds, cash
and records from the diamond collection agencies in Berberati
and Bria. While there may be legitimate reasons for this
action, the popular perception is simply that Minister of Mines
Sylvain Ndoutingai is doing as a way to extort additional money.
There are credible, but unconfirmed reports that he is
operating several unlicensed diamond mines on the Cameroonian
border, near the wildlife reserve at Bayanga.

-- The conventional wisdom is that the Central African
population is too demoralized to take any action. AmEmbassy has
thus noted with great interest small but increasing reports of
public discontent, including a police station looted and burned
following a police killing and tires being burned in the streets
of the industrial (by local standards) town of Bimbo, some five
kilometers from Bangui. People were protesting increasing power
outages; outages that continue despite the fact they continue to
pay their power bills. Press coverage of the Bozize government
remains uniformly critical.

--------------
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
--------------


7. (SBU) The most astute political observers in Bangui believe
that Libya is funding the FDPC in the interest of deposed
president Patasse. If the Libyans have, in fact, decided to
fund a rebel group and especially the group that is
traditionally the best led and armed, then this is very bad news
for the Bozize government which can barely govern on the best of
days. While there is no immediate danger of the rebels marching
into Bangui or the immediate collapse of the Bozize government,

BANGUI 00000047 003 OF 003


things do not look good. Even if these are all simply maneuvers
to gain political advantage in the aftermath of the Inclusive
Political Dialogue and in the run up to the elections of 2010,
this new round of violence has already cased a humanitarian
disaster in the CAR and will slow the already glacial pace of
economic development.

Specific warning signs include:

-- Breakaways by the APRD or the UFDR. This might include their
further splintering into new groups.

-- Effective cooperation or joint operations by any of the major
rebel groups. Any two might well have the military force to
overthrow the Bozize government.

-- Popular discontent transferred into action. This could
include street demonstrations or the defection of elected or
appointed officials to the rebel groups.

-- Evidence of increased intervention by foreign states such as
Libya or Chad.
COOK