DDR PROCESS INCREASINGLY LINKED TO ELECTIONS - A DANGEROUS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000275

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR JPEKKINEN
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: DDR PROCESS INCREASINGLY LINKED TO ELECTIONS - A DANGEROUS
CORRELATION

REF: A. A 09 BANGUI 272 AND PREVIOUS

B. REF: B 09 BANGUI 181

SUBJECT: DDR PROCESS INCREASINGLY LINKED TO ELECTIONS - A
DANGEROUS CORRELATION
REF A: 09 Bangui 272 and previous
REF B: 09 Bangui 181


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Two critical and linked realities threaten to
derail the progress of the scheduled preparations for the 2010
Central African (CAR) elections: setbacks in implementing the
disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration program (DDR) and
the existence of armed groups outside of the peace process.
Although most observers agree that a successful DDR process is
vital to create a stable environment for peaceful elections in
April 2010, the DDR process continues to experience delays.
Pushing back the elections, however, has its own hazards as the
constitutional mandates of the President and National Assembly
expire in June. A constitutional crisis, while convenient for
some individuals with limited public support, would derail the
CARs democratic progress and fuel the rebel movements.
Therefore, while some flexibility in the first round's date may
be advisable, international and national actors involved should
avoid conditioning the elections on implementation of a strict
DDR timetable, lest it give parties who do not want to see
elections an easy excuse to avoid the democratic process. END
SUMMARY.

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Current State of the DDR
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2. (U) The DDR process is estimated to require a total of USD27
million. So far financial support has come from the UN Peace
Building Fund, sub-regional organizations such as the Economic
and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and the
Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC),and
neighboring countries, but a funding gap still remains.
Recently the local press announced that Chad, Gabon, and
Equatorial Guinea pledged an additional USD 6.6 million. In
addition, the Peacebuilding Commission at the United Nations
(PBC) has proposed a pledging conference - to be held in early
2010 - in order to increase financing for Security Sector Reform
(SSR),a wider program within which the DDR process exists.


3. (U) SSR cannot fully succeed without resolving the issue of
the numerous rebel groups, either through DDR or military action
by the Central African army. There are currently two major
groups outside of the DDR peace process -- the Patriotic
Convention for Justice and Peace (CPJP),Democratic Front of the
Central African People (FDPC) -- along with a number of smaller
armed bands. The opposition has called for the government (CARG)
to initiate political dialogue with the remaining militia
groups, but so far President Bozize has declined to negotiate
directly with the CPJP, preferring confrontation. The FDPC
pulled out of the process citing delays in implementation and
the murder of two of their members in a Central African jail.
The Army for the Restitution of Democracy (APRD),while still
adhering to the process, has reestablished check points in its
areas of operation and recently turned away a UN convoy headed
by Chairman of the PBC in protest against the slow roll out of
the DDR program. Additionally, the instability in the northeast
has forced the Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) to
repeat demands that all the other regional groups disarm
simultaneously (Ref A).


4. (SBU) UNDP officials in charge of the DDR do not expect the
entire process to be completed before the elections, but do
believe that the first two phases - disarmament and
demobilization - can be completed by mid-April. This, they

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hope, will ensure a sufficiently secure environment to allow
free passage throughout the country for election staff, voters,
and the possible return of the estimated 162,000 Central African
internally displaced people and 130,000 refugees. Progress has
been made by the DDR Steering Committee - earlier this month,
the long awaited deployment of 31 military observers from CEEAC
funded by the EU to oversee the demobilization process finally
arrived in Bangui. Yet, even though the UNDP forecasts that the
DDR team will complete the first two phases by February 2010, a
recent press interview with one of the CEEAC military experts
declared that the disarmament process alone will likely take
more than three months, allowing implementation of only the
first phase of DDR before the first round of elections currently
scheduled for April 18.

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Delays in the DDR Causing Nervousness
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5. (SBU) Although the government and the Independent Electoral
Commission (IEC) consistently reaffirm their commitment to
holding the elections within the timeframe prescribed by the
country's constitution, major international partners - France,
the European Commission (EC),the UNDP and the UN's Office for
Central Africa (BONUCA) - all agree that peaceful and
transparent elections will be compromised without further
improvement in the security situation in the CAR. The
opposition often stresses the need for flexibility within the
proposed election timeline and that the dates of the scheduled
activities are less important than the conditions on the ground.
Some observers speculate that the opposition would prefer a
constitutional crisis that would potentially result in a
``government of national unity,'' but until now, their efforts
have been brushed aside by the international community and the
government (Ref B).


6. (U) The Constitutional calls for the IEC to conduct the first
round of elections before the end of the current Presidential
mandate on June 11, 2009. During a recent meeting of the
Electoral Steering Committee, IEC representatives from the
ruling party did not object to the opposition statements calling
for flexibility in the electoral timeline, but they were quick
to stress that the constitutional mandate must be respected.


7. (SBU) The CARG is not always clear about its intentions
either. During a meeting with the Secretary General (SG) of
Government, the SG stated that it was imperative that the
disarmament and demobilization phases be completed before the
national elections are held. Nevertheless, the SG was also
assured that the IEC had already taken into consideration the
DDR process for the elections timetable, because the militia
groups who are members of the DDR process are represented by
five members on the IEC. It is possible that President Bozize
is seeking to maintain some flexibility of action by demanding
the timeline be respected, but also acknowledging the necessity
of DDR implementation.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: BONUCA has stressed the need for the DDR
process to move forward, but correctly warned of making the
elections strictly conditional on DDR, which could risk
compromising the peace-building effort by causing a
constitutional crisis. Post agrees with this assessment and
cautions against a hasty decision to accept significant delays
in the electoral timeline. Any postponement past the
constitutional mandate will create a constitutional vacuum and
distract the CARG and opposition from the real issue at hand:
the elections and effective governance of the Central African
Republic. END COMMENT.
COOK