GROWING CHINESE INFLUENCE IN THE CAR EVIDENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGUI 000237

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C
USUN FOR DMUERS
PARIS FOR RKANEDA
LONDON FOR PLORD
NAIROBI FOR AKARAS
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL
INR FOR CNEARY
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: GROWING CHINESE INFLUENCE IN THE CAR EVIDENT

REF: A. A- BANGUI 219 AND PREVIOUS

B. REF: B - BANGUI 212 AND PREVIOUS

BANGUI 00000237 001.2 OF 003



1. (SBU) SUMMARY: A growing Sino-Central African (CAR)
relationship is becoming increasingly evident in the CAR.
President Bozize recently concluded his second state visit to
China and sent another trade delegation back to Beijing shortly
thereafter. Last week, the Chinese Ambassador laid the
cornerstone for a new 100 bed hospital and announced earlier in
the month a plan to ease the CAR's electrical crisis and begin
oil exploration in the north of the country. This interest in
oil may explain an unexpected and sudden decrease in tension in
the CAR's troubled northeastern region of the Vakaga. Post
suspects, from discussions with various reliable sources that
the Chinese may have been the driving force, through Sudanese
good offices, behind a local peace deal that is report to have
significantly eased tensions which previously threatened to
spill over into violence. While ethnic conflict in the Vakaga
may still flair up, it is clear that China is making a strong
economic and political play in the CAR. It seems equally clear
that Bozize's government is welcoming this relationship as an
alternative to more restrictive relations with the French and
the West. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) During the Cold War, the CAR vacillated between
recognizing China and Taiwan, depending on who was offering
better terms, but since the early 1990's the Central Africans
have recognized and increasingly favored the People's Republic.
In addition to the new hospital and the administration's recent
high-profile trips to China, some examples of this growing
relationship are:

-- In 2007, a Chinese Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs visited
the CAR to explore cooperation in the forestry and petroleum
sectors.

-- In comparison to AmEmbassy Bangui, which is functioning with
four resident American officers (all State),the Chinese embassy
has approximately 40 employees and is ramping up its military
cooperation, public diplomacy and development efforts.

-- Currently, the Chinese have subcontracted the building of a
massive hotel previously begun by the Libyan government and have
various health and agriculture programs underway.

-- Post also understands that a Chinese company has purchased a
significant part of the French uranium company AREVA's interest
in Central African mines. Similarly, there are repeated rumors
of their interest in the iron discovery on the Canadian company
AXMIN's concession north of Bambari. This might even include
construction of a railroad.

-- Approximately 40 CAR military officers go to China for
training each year; a number which dwarfs the two or three IMET
students sent to the United States and the 10 to 15 sent to
training by the French. And, perhaps more to the point, this
training is unlikely to include an annoying (from the CARG point
of view) human rights element.

-- Cooperation does not stop at infrastructure and military
cooperation, a week of Chinese Culture was recently celebrated,
and articles (placed and paid for by the Chinese Embassy)
extolling the virtues of China are now mainstays in Bangui's
leading newspapers. This public diplomacy campaign is new this
year.

Details are difficult to come by as the Central Africans are
very careful in discussing their dealing with the Chinese, but

BANGUI 00000237 002.2 OF 003


the infrastructure and cultural projects are evident and
symbolic of a deepening relationship.


3. (SBU) While Bozize's trip to China was overtly political,
Post has not previously seen what it suspects to be Chinese
activity in the internal affairs of the CAR. During an October
trip to the Vakaga with the P-5 ambassadors (Ref A),Poloff
remarked that the Chinese Ambassador asked very direct, and
surprisingly basic, questions about what was needed for a
solution to the crisis. It was clear at the time that a
political agreement between the local warring factions was still
lacking and tensions remained high. At one point, Ambassador Shi
Hu asked the particularly influential Sudanese consul if the
Government of Sudan could broker a deal. (COMMENT: At the time,
these seemed to be questions of a naove observer, new to the
troubles in the Vakaga, but we now suspect that the Ambassador
was perhaps attempting to assess how to pacify the area to make
it safe for Chinese research teams. END COMMENT.).


4. (SBU) On November 2, the National Assembly Deputy from Birao,
Vakaga, called on the DCM. Unexpectedly, the Deputy stated that
the factions, thought to be on the brink of renewed conflict,
have agreed to disarm. Pressed as to the reasons why this ease
in tension came about so unexpectedly, the Deputy said a newly
formed ``council of wise people'' had cleared up the differences
between the ethnicities, and each group now hopes to join the
Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration process (Ref B).


5. (SBU) On November 3, Poloff met with a very well-informed
western military observer who confirmed that he too had heard of
the rapid decrease in tensions in the Vakaga, though he was
notified by the rebels, not the CARG. He put forth the
following hypotheses: Sudan - which, through its Consul in Birao
and various economic interests, virtually controls the Vakaga -
has brokered a deal between the warring factions. The contact
speculated that this was done at the behest of China as he has
concrete information that the oil fields that the Chinese
ambassador mentioned are just northwest of Birao, and the
Chinese do not want instability jeopardizing the project (NOTE:
The Chinese were dismayed by the killing of several of their oil
exploration personnel in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia a few
years ago and may be expected to be cautious in the CAR. END
NOTE.) Furthermore, the contact confirmed that eight Chinese
officials arrived at the Birao airport last week for unspecified
reasons. This is a tremendous number in a region which has
almost no contact with outsiders other than MINURCAT and a few
NGOs.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The Chinese have steadily increased their
visibility and influence in the CAR, a country rich in untapped
natural resources. During the Chinese national day reception on
October 1, CARG officials and Ambassador Shi Hu lavished praise
on one another and predicted an economic renaissance for the
CAR, even as the electricity failed repeatedly. With French
investments moribund and French influence in general decline,
the Chinese are likely positioning themselves as the CAR's
primary benefactor in exchange for access to the CAR's ample
deposits of uranium, gold, iron, diamonds, and possibly oil.
Although Chinese aid and investment is unlikely to come with
troublesome caveats regarding democratic practices and economic
transparency, they are apparently interested in promoting the
pacification of troubled areas in northern CAR in order to
protect their own interests and personnel. The full extent of
Chinese involvement in the CAR is still subject to some
conjecture, but it appears clear that:

-- The Chinese are actively seeking greatly expanded influence

BANGUI 00000237 003.2 OF 003


in the CAR, almost certainly to gain access to economic
resources; and,

-- President Bozize may increasingly embrace the Chinese as an
alternative to the French and other Western benefactors.

It is also clear that President Bozize has less and less reason
to listen to the United States messages encouraging transparency
in governance and respect for human rights. END COMMENT.
COOK