UNDP AND REBELS FRUSTRATED WITH CARG FOOT-DRAGGING ON DDR

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SUBJECT: UNDP AND REBELS FRUSTRATED WITH CARG FOOT-DRAGGING ON DDR

REF: A: 09 BANGUI 118

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Disarmament, Demobilization, and
Reintegration (DDR) campaign in the Central African Republic
(CAR),launched in August 2009 with much fanfare, has slowed
considerably in pace causing frustration in increasingly
impatient rebels. The government's (CARG) lack of will, and
specifically actions of its principal interlocutor with rebels
and the international community, Minister of Communication
Cyriac Gonda, is irritating both the UN and the relevant rebels
groups and threatens the stability of the peace process just six
months before the planned elections of March 2010. In this
context, POLOFF, the acting DATT, and the US Air Force C-12 crew
from Accra, Ghana visited Paoua in northwestern CAR on October
15, 2009 to meet with local government officials, international
peacekeepers and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). By
happenstance, the above mentioned also met the spokesman and
military commander of the western sector of the rebel Army for
the Restoration of Democracy (APRD),Colonel Henri Tchabo aka
Colonel Wafio. The Colonel confirmed the reestablishment of APRD
road blocks around their area of operation, expressed his
displeasure with the slow pace of the DDR's roll out, but
affirmed his overall commitment to peace with the government.
END SUMMARY.

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UNDP FRUSTRATED, SHIFTING GEARS
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2. (SBU) On September 30th, 2009, the Charge and POLOFF met with
the Senior DDR Advisor working for the Bureau of Crisis
Prevention and Recovery at the UN Development Program (UNDP) who
is following the DDR process in the CAR. She was irritated with
the CARG continued foot dragging in the process despite the
launch of the sensitization campaign in August.

-- A particular sticking point is the 8 billion CFA
(approximately 17 million USD) pledged by the Economic and
Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) for the process
which the CARG claims it alone controls and which is not
necessarily earmarked for the DDR process.

-- In an effort to get the government to reengage the funds, the
UNDP is now saying that they will fund the first two D -
Disarmament and Demobilization - but that Reintegration must be
handled by the CARG.

--The UNDP also informed Post of disturbing rumors of graft
within the CARG - according to her ``well placed sources'', only
50 million CFA (110,000 USD) of 250 million CFA (556,000 USD)
set aside by President Bozize for the sensitization campaign at
the start of the DDR process was spent for its actual purpose.
It was the UNDP's firm conviction that Minister Gonda absconded
with the rest of the funds.

The UNDP is fully aware of the lack of political will at the
highest levels of the government and are hoping that by forcing
them to take responsibility for Reintegration; they will
eliminate any potential blame that the CARG may seek to place
upon the international community if the process fails.

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WORRYING DEVELOPMENTS ON THE GROUND
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3. (SBU) During the last week of September and the first week of
October, all of the major rebel signatories to the DDR process
have begun to express dissatisfaction with the progression of
the program:


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-- The Democratic Front of the Central African People (FDPC),
the Libyan-backed group headed by Abdoulaye Miskine, has
reinstated barriers in their zone between Kabo and Sido on the
Chadian boarder. The groups did so in protest of the arrest of
two officers and frustration on the ground with the lack of
promised funds from the DDR process. It is also probable that
Miskine is annoyed that he has yet to be named to the diplomatic
post he was promised for signing onto the process.

-- The Union of Democratic Forces for Unity (UFDR) based in the
northeast stated publically what Post has speculated for some
time - They will be unable to demobilize as long as their Kara
foes in the Vakaga remain armed. Minister Gonda is due in Birao
to start the sensitization campaign in mid-October.

-- The APRD published a press release this week announcing the
resetting of their road blocks in all the zones under their
control because the GARG had not lived up to their promises.
They stated that due to limited funding from the government, `'
we cannot pay for the cost of our member's food or offer them
coffee [a Central African term for kick backs]''.

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ACCIDENTAL MEETING WITH A REBEL
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4. (SBU) In an exceptionally Central African moment, POLOFF, the
DATT and the three crew members of the C-12 were greeted at the
Paoua airstrip by the three forces of order in the prefecture:
the head of the Central African Army's (FACA) detachment, the
head of the Congolese peacekeepers from the regional
peacekeeping force (MICOPAX) and the aforementioned Colonel
Wafio. The DATT was struck by the amicable body language between
the Congolese and Wafio and their evident coolness towards the
FACA (NOTE: Indications of the FACA's lack of professionalism
were striking - later in the afternoon, after ``not being able
to meet earlier'', the FACA commander showed up considerably
inebriated and was unable to recall how many soldiers he had
under his command. END NOTE).


5. (SBU) After a meeting with the commander of the MICOPAX unit
based in Paoua, Colonel Wafio unexpectedly walked into the
Congolese canteen where we were seated. Accompanied by Arnaud
Guettel, the APRD's newly minted representative on the
Independent Electoral Commission, Wafio cut surprisingly serene
persona for a rebel commander and was dressed in a blue jean
outfit. Wafio, known to be smart and well respected due to his
humble roots, also has a darker side: He is thought to have
ordered a group whipping of this predecessor as APRD spokesman
in April 2009 for killing a prominent Paoua cattle trader. The
former commander's whereabouts are currently unknown.


6. (SBU) POLOFF commenced the discussion by reaffirming the long
standing position of Post - that the rebels must join the
legitimate opposition and put down their weapons as peace is in
the interest of all Central Africans and the international
community. POLOFF also stressed that the barriers should be
taken down and that a negotiated solution with the government
was needed. A discussion ensued where Wafio confirmed that the
end goal of the APRD was peace and that government indolence was
to blame. He stated that if the government took the DDR
seriously there would be no problems. Importantly, when asked
about the plans of the APRD for the elections, Wafio returned to
his insistence that the DDR process must actually start.
According to the rebel, if the Disarmament and Demobilization
processes were on course then APRD would be fine with elections
and a more long term Reinsertion campaign. He also said that the
presence of MICOPAX military observers for the DDR process would
be a good sign that the process was moving along. This last

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statement suggests Wafio is following events in Bangui closely -
The UNDP was just in Libreville to discuss with MICOPAX's
command about the set up of observers.


7. (SBU) While Wafio remained calm throughout; his deputy became
quite animated at our insistence that the APRD pull down its
road blocks and disarm. According to Guettel, the region is
facing a double menace of armed cattle herders, who take many
forms, and the Chadian Army. As noted in previous reporting (Ref
A),the north of the CAR is virtually ungoverned by Bangui and
the large pastoral expanses are often the source of tension
between the sedentary Central African farmers and pastoralist
coming from the north. According to a UN source, the APRD and
other local militias are in constant conflict with
Fulani/Peuhl/Mbororo herders and cattle raisers from Chad.
Apparently some of the larger herds are owned by members of the
Chadian security apparatus and it is not uncommon that soldiers
from the Chadian Army are sent to settle disagreements across
the border. So while Post doubts that it is the active policy of
the Chadian government to violate the territory of the CAR, it
is clear that individuals with economic interest and military
ties are willing to use elements from the Chadian army to settle
their disputes. More fundamentally, Guettel's agitation plainly
displays a deep flaw in the DDR process - without a capacity by
the FACA or the CARG to project order over its territory, local
inhabitants will be invariably forced to take arms to protect
their interests.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: The latest reestablishment of barriers and
increased rhetoric by the different rebel groups is likely a
negotiation tactic and should not lead to violence in the short
term. Each group knows they stand to gain more from the DDR than
from renewed hostility. But it is hard to imagine that the APRD
and other armed actors in the north do not understand that
disarming will leave them exposed to others not a part of the
DDR process. Thus, when taken in concert with the statement that
they really are only pushing for the short term payout from the
Disarmament and Demobilization and that the Reintegration can
``come later'', it remains difficult to be optimistic about the
long term prospects of the DDR process. END COMMENT.
COOK