Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BANGUI157
2009-07-13 12:18:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangui
Cable title:  

CATCH 22 ON DISARMAMENT - WHY DDR IS NOT LIKELY TO WORK IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000157 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C; PARIS FOR KANEDA; LONDON FOR LORD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: CATCH 22 ON DISARMAMENT - WHY DDR IS NOT LIKELY TO WORK IN
THE CAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000157

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/C; PARIS FOR KANEDA; LONDON FOR LORD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR ECON CT
SUBJECT: CATCH 22 ON DISARMAMENT - WHY DDR IS NOT LIKELY TO WORK IN
THE CAR


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The international community and the government
of the Central African Republic (CARG) have attached much
importance to Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration
(DDR) as the solution to the Central African Republic's (CAR)
long running conflict. This would appear logical - disarm the
rebels and reintegrate them back in to a peaceful society. This
process, promoted by the United Nations (UN) in the Central
African Republic (CAR) has been beset by problems such as the
slow roll out of the program, mismanagement of funds by the
government (CARG) and difficulty raising funds from the
international community. Despite an agreement reached in April
that produced a list of rebels to be disarmed and the recent
acceptance by the CARG to use money granted by the Economic
Community of Central African States (CEMAC) for DDR for its
expressed purpose, Post fears that observers are placing too
much faith in the process as a solution to the CAR's ills. Until
the CARG has the means, and more importantly, the will, to fill
the vacuum left behind by disarmed groups, both on a security
and economic front, the effort is unlikely to accomplish its
goals. And beyond that is the overarching problem that the CAR
is effectively a failed state - there is simply no economy into
which former combatants can be "reintegrated." Post fears that
the DDR process will merely give a small number of people some
money to live on for a few months before they take up arms
again. This telegram provides a glimpse of the reality on the
ground. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The town of Kaga Bandoro is a microcosm for the
pitfalls DDR. Devastated economically by the passage of then
rebel leader Francois Bozize's army in 2003, Kaga Bandoro
suffers from the presence of two armed groups who effectively
end the control of the CARG some five kilometers from the city
center. The Army for the Restoration of the Republic and
Democracy (APRD),the traditional rebel group of the region and
signatory to the DDR process lives in an uneasy coexistence with
a heavily armed group of Chadian bandits led by a man named Baba

Lade. With a tiny gendarmerie presence, the town is at the
mercy of those groups, though MICOPAX, a regional peacekeeping
body is able to assure a modicum of stability if not order
(Note: POLOFF witnessed a boy beaten by bandits being inspected
by the commander of the MICOPAX detachment as the Gendarmes were
powerless to respond). The local Prefect, akin to a governor, is
so reduced in authority that he is often limited to being a
spectator (NOTE: After a flair up in violence between Lade and
the APRD, the Prefect provided good offices for this peace
conference in June 2009)


3. (SBU) The realities of life in the CAR create a dangerous
Catch-22 which renders disarmament very unlikely:

-- The APRD, and groups like it, cannot disarm until general
instability ceases. In many parts of the north, they are,
ironically, the only elements of order. If they were to disarm,
local and trans-border groups like Baba Lade's, who fund
themselves through road banditry and illegal ``taxation'' of
livestock, will run rampant. Only a capable and motivated
Central African Army (FACA),gendarme, and police force can
provide a better alternative than the rebels. The people of the
north have suffered the civil war of 2003 that devastated all
economic life in northern CAR and then a dangerous rebellion
that has touched most parts of the country above the 6th
parallel. With some CARG support, many towns have produced stout
self defense militias to counter the threat posed by the rebels
and bandits. These groups are appear to be effective, but they
cannot replace a real police/military force, backed up by a
functional system of justice.

-- Because the DDR project focuses on those who have taken up
weapons against the CARG and promises economic development
``later'', there is a dangerous possibility of new rebel groups
forming to milk the system if they become impatient with the
pace of development. Embassy Bangui reported previously that
people are currently seeking to be recognized as rebels so they
may be demobilized (Bangui 124). There is also the prospect that
score settling and revenge killings may cause disarming rebels
to be attacked, thus pushing them to rearm.


4. (SBU) COMMENT: The fundamental problem of the CAR is at

BANGUI 00000157 002 OF 002


least thirty years of weak and corrupt governments that have
failed (if they even attempted) to forge a national consensus
and develop the country. Rebel groups are merely one symptom of
the disease of poor governance - not the root cause of
instability. Similarly, cross border adventures into the CAR by
Chadians and Sudanese are not symptoms of the spread of the
Chad/Sudan/Darfur conflict. Most Chadians and Sudanese who are
active in the CAR are here as opportunists or at the invitation
of various CAR factions looking for experienced help.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The position of President Bozize, as
expressed most directly to the United Nations in the person of
Undersecretary for Political Affairs Pascoe and newly arrived
Special Representative of the Secretary General Saleh-Work
Zwede, (PROTECT BOTH) is that:

-- DDR is the answer to the CAR's problems, but,
-- DDR is the responsibility of the International community, not
the CARG.

Not surprisingly, both told the Ambassador that they were
surprised by this response and attitude. Thus one ended their
visit, and one begins their mission very, very disappointed by
the CARG's position. (Zwede, in particular, seemed shaken.)

More specifically, Bozize insists that he has done all he need
do:

-- He held the "Dialogue Politique Inclusive" (Inclusive
National Political Dialogue)
-- He formed a "Government of National Unity."
-- He agreed to allow the CEMAC funds to be used for DDR.

No local observer accepts any of these efforts at face value.
(Post reporting has already outlined the weakness of all of
these efforts.)


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Thus short term infusion of cash may have
some benefits, but the final R - Reintegration- cannot be left
solely to the international community as there will simply never
be enough donor money to fix this country. The DDR process is
not the answer to ills of the CAR except as part of a larger
CARG commitment to national reconciliation, economic recovery,
and poverty reduction; a commitment that the CARG has, thus far,
shown no willingness to make. END COMMENT
COOK