NDELE REMAINS THE LOCUS OF THE THREATS TO THE CARG

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000155

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

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USUN FOR DMUERS
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: NDELE REMAINS THE LOCUS OF THE THREATS TO THE CARG

REF: A. (09 BANGUI 152)

B. (09 N'DJAMENA 247).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ndele, Central African Republic (CAR) remains
the locus of a serious threat to Central African political
stability. While the Northeast and west maintain their violent
potential, the Patriotic Convention for Justice and Peace
(CPJP)goes into the rainy season increasingly political,
reinforced by the dissident elements of the Democratic Front for
the Central African People (FDPC),and unengaged politically by
the Central African Government (CARG). As such, unless they are
forcefully engaged in the coming months, the CPJP may indeed
pose the single greatest threat to the CARG. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) As noted in previous reporting, the CPJP remains a
largely unknown entity. The CPJP was originally said to be made
up of UFDR members of the Rounga tribe who broke with the Goula
dominated UFDR after being expelled from the diamond fields near
Sam Ouandja. The Sultan/Mayor of Ndele (Consider source: The
Sultan is distrusted by Bangui as a Rounga sympathizer.)
maintains that there are former elements of the Presidential
Guard in the CPJP, but is not clear to us if this means that
they are political leaders or merely military advisors/trainers.
Former Minister of Defense, Charles Massi has declared himself
to be the spokesman of the group, but as his home is in the
extreme west of the country and he has no previous engagement in
the Ndele region, his role and importance are not clear In any
case, while Massi is currently languishing in a Chadian jail as
of early June 2009, the CPJP remains very active. Political
commentators from the Birao area tell us that this group is not
connected in any way with the Kara/Gouala conflict in the Birao
area.


3. (SBU) On June 13, the Central African Army (FACA) was
ambushed by the CPJP on the road from Ndele to the Chadian
border and lost at least three soldiers. (Independent,
unconfirmed reports claim that the FACA left several additional
dead on the field.) While an immediate move towards Ndele is
always possible, a move towards Bangui, grows increasingly
remote by the day as the roads turn into muddy quagmires with
the rains. Also, as of now, the CPJP do not appear to have the
motorized capacity to set off on the road to Bangui. They do not
appear to have the political interest either. Thus, they will
mostly likely settle for a compromise solution, such as renewed
access to diamond mines taken by the Goula of the Union of
United of Democratic Forces (UFDR) after the CARG/UFDR accords
of 2007. Yet, the time off during the rainy season could give
them occasion to conjure up bigger dreams. While Post believes
the former to be most likely, the later scenario cannot be
counted out.


4. (SBU) Multiple sources have informed Post that despite a
peace deal agreed to between Abdoulaye Miskine of the FDPC and
the CARG, dissident members of his group have set out to join
the CPJP. Post estimates that ten to fifty members of the FDPC
headed out on foot to Ndele in the last month to join the CPJP,
probably as guns for hire, though possibly for ideological
reasons. The later would be troubling and lend credence to the
theory that the CPJP are not hoodlums looking to be demobilized
and paid (Bangui 124) but may instead feel they have legitimate
grievances against the CARG - making them all the more
dangerous. Thus, while President Bozize has scored a reasonable
political victory in decommissioning the troublesome FDPC, not
all of Miskine's soldiers will go quietly and the CPJP, already
the major menace to the CARG, may be stronger for it.


5. (SBU) A meeting with the French Defense Attache (PROTECT) on
June 23, 2009 brought to light a development which, if true,
could change the entire balance of power in the CAR. On June 7,
the ANT (Chadian Army) stopped two, of what is thought to have
been eight to ten, pickups carrying 120 AK-47s, two .50 caliber
machine guns, ammunition, anti-personnel and anti-tank mines.
AmEmbassy N'djamena was briefed by the Chad Government on the
seizure and was told that the arms were destined for Chadian
rebels (09 N'Djamena 247). But French INTEL now says that half
of the weaponry was destined for the CAR (being that they were
stopped in Bahr Keita, Chad, after crossing Central African

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territory north of Birao, it seems logical that the weapons are
heading for the CPJP north of Ndele). The DATT was very
perturbed by this possibility because he said that there are now
not more than 120 AK-47's between the rebels in Birao and North
of Ndele and that this would signal a surge in combat
capability. He further speculated that the financing and origin
of the arms were probably two pronged - some money coming from
Khartoum, but he also suspects that the Chadian rebels are
trying to create instability in both northern CAR and southern
Chad to ease ANT pressure upon them in Eastern Chad. Furthermore
the ethnicities of the region cross the CAR/Chad border and
therefore the CPJP may be receiving aid due to clan ties as
well.


6. (SBU) On June 13 the Ambassador met with Minister of
Equipment Samba-Panza, the ``Ministre Resident'' of the Ndele
region, prior to the latter's visit to Ndele. Ambassador shared
observations from his own trip to the region in February and
asked for the Minister's views upon his return. On July 2, Samba
Panza told the Ambassador and visiting CAR Desk Officer that:

-- He had warned the local FACA to cease physical threats
against the Sultan. He stressed that there must be no incidents
during or after his visit (Note: The FACA are going house to
house in the Rounga neighborhoods searching for arms and
arresting ``rebels'').

-- The Sultan has applied to President Bozize for permission to
come to Bangui and discuss the situation.

Samba-Panza is generally well regarded and was Minstre Resident
for Ndele once before. His visit could provide the CARG with an
opening for political engagement. He told the Ambassador that he
believes that the President will meet the Sultan.


7. (SBU) COMMENT: Recently, a very well informed Embassy source
said he has solid evidence of ANT/FACA cooperation between
Golongoso and Nanga, northwest of Ndele. Another source said
there has been an uptick of Chadian Gendarmerie presence along
the border north of Ndele. This is promising for the CARG if
true, for there have been other signs that Bozize has recognized
the threats to him and is trying to act:

-- A mediation team sent to Birao (09 Bangui 152).
-- The peace accord concluded with Miskine and the FDPC.
-- A shakeup in the Presidential Guard with a respected colonel
taking its reins.

But Post still believes that Bozize faces in the CPJP a much
tougher challenge than he can solve militarily. He must become
an honest arbiter between the troublesome ethnicities and groups
of the North - from the APRD to the UFDR - and deliver to them
not only short term infusions of cash through demobilization
efforts but long term development and leadership. Post has yet
to see this level of statesmanship from the president and though
he has made promising gambits, further optimism is not yet
merited. END SUMMARY.
COOK