ASEAN WORKS TOWARD COMMON CLIMATE CHANGE POSITION IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 003034

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR OES, SECC
COMMERCE FOR NOAA
USDA FOR FAS
STATE PASS TO USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ENRG KGCC KGHG SENV TH
SUBJECT: ASEAN WORKS TOWARD COMMON CLIMATE CHANGE POSITION IN
COPENHAGEN

REF: A) State 120800 (B) Hanoi 1246 (C) Bangkok 0418


1. SUMMARY: As chair of ASEAN Climate Change Working Group,
Thailand's Environment minister hosted a ministerial on November 29
that brought ASEAN closer to a common negotiating position for the
UNFCC Conference of Parties in Copenhagen. Thailand is circulating
an ASEAN position paper with request for agreement by December 4.
Thai Prime Minister Abhisit as ASEAN chair hopes to have the ASEAN
bloc taken more seriously in the deliberations. Thailand and a
majority of ASEAN favor the Ref A Danish proposal for a two step
agreement to come out of COP-15 in Copenhagen, according to
Thailand's natural resources minister and chief negotiator.
Regional leaders welcomed the U.S. and Chinese announcements of
emissions targets but are still wrestling with their own. END
SUMMARY.

ASEAN MINISTERIAL SEEKS COMMON POSITION FOR COPENHAGEN
--------------

2. (SBU) Thai Environment and Natural Resources (MoNRE) Minister
Suwit Khunkitti, as chair of the ASEAN Ad Hoc Working Group on
Climate Change, called on short notice a ministerial-level "ASEAN
Special Meeting on Climate Change" on November 29. This followed a
Senior Officials Meeting 9(SOM) on November 28, in Hua Hin,
Thailand, in conjunction with a SOM of the Mekong River Commission
(MRC) November 26-28 that already involved Cambodia, Laos and
Vietnam (Septel). Not present at the November 29 ministerial were
Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines. However,
Minister Suwit told ESTHoff that the latter four countries had met
regarding a joint ASEAN climate change position at the APEC summit
several weeks ago, so they felt they did not need to attend. Suwit
expressed optimism that ASEAN would endorse the Danish position of
political declaration first step to a binding treaty later; the
position would call for immediate financing for the urgent
adaptation needs of the ASEAN countries.


4. (SBU) Thailand's chief negotiator for COP-15, Areewattana
Tummakird, told ESTHoff that she would circulate a draft ASEAN
position on November 30 with a hoped for assent by all 10 by
December 4. Prime Minister Abhisit then plans to hold a heads of
state breakfast meeting the morning of December 16 in Copenhagen to
solidify an ASEAN-wide position. Areewattana said that this effort
was designed to remedy the lack of attention that the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change negotiators paid to ASEAN as a group
when compared to negotiating blocs such as AOSIS and the EU.
Areewattana noted that in considering CO2 emissions and forests, an
ASEAN bloc would rank only after the China and India in the
developing world. ASEAN nations had many differences in their
relationships to climate change issues, and their emission targets
would vary widely, but they share vulnerability and the desire to
have Copenhagen produce concrete mitigation and adaptation action.


5. (SBU) In a meeting with ESTHoff on November 25, Areewattana
discussed Ref A material on the Danish proposal for two steps to a
global binding agreement. She said that Thailand favored a
political agreement at Copenhagen that would commit nations to
domestic actions, immediate but flexible, and multi-year financing
for adaptation, which is the top priority for most ASEAN nations.
The political agreement could be followed eventually by a binding
agreement, but Areewattana noted that to reach a binding agreement
even by 2012 would be challenging. She said that the six ASEAN
ministerial representatives agreed to these points in Hua Hin on
November 29 and she expected the other four to agree.

EMMISSION REDUCTION: HARD FOR THAILAND, EASY FOR INDONESIA
--------------

6. (SBU) Areewattana said the key for a political agreement in
Copenhagen was that each country have a credible emissions number.
She and Minister Suwit expressed satisfaction that the U.S. and
China had publicized numbers. She had to admit that Thailand still
did not have an emissions target; she was still engaged in domestic
negotiations with other ministries and the private sector. She
noted that Thailand's industry is privately owned, and that for
forest-related mitigation, most forests with potential were in
private hands. (Note: Thailand is still reforesting for commercial
production under a 1989 logging ban. End Note.) Areewattana
contrasted Thailand to Indonesia's situation. Indonesia was able to

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announce an emissions reduction target because its forests were in
government hands and it had the MOU with the EU, with a fund to
finance part of its promised reduction. Minister Suwit noted on
November 29 that Thailand might not have enough time to reach
domestic agreement on an emissions number for Copenhagen.

U.S. EMISSIONS ANNOUNCEMENT CREATES POSITIVE CLIMATE
--------------

7. (U) At the preceding MRC meeting and during the SOM and
ministerial, ESTHoff was able to talk informally with a number of
the officials and from Cambodia, Laos, Burma, Thailand, and Vietnam,
as well as the NGO representatives and diplomats from the nations
who are donors in Southeast Asia. Nearly all expressed optimism
and relief that the U.S. and China had announced emissions figures
for Copenhagen. There appeared to be a new optimism among many
donor representatives that at least a political agreement was
possible in Copenhagen.


8. (U) COMMENT: An ASEAN negotiating bloc for COP 15 in Copenhagen
is logical not only for their forests and aggregate emissions; ASEAN
coastal megacities are among the most at risk from sea level rise.
Threatened rice production for the numbers one and two exporters,
Thailand and Vietnam, is another reason an adaptation action plan
for ASEAN is key. While it remains to be seen if Thai Minister
Suwit can corral an ASEAN negotiating bloc, the USG could consider a
high level meeting with Prime Minister Abhisit, as ASEAN chair, to
make dealing with this group more productive. Thai officials have
expressed disappointment in the past that the USG did not meet with
the ASEAN nations as a group during the earlier negotiating meetings
in Bangkok and Bonn.