BRUNEI: RELUCTANT TO LEAD IMT, AND CRITICAL OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN 000015

SIPDIS
NOFORN

STATE FOR EAP/MTS/MGCOPPOLA, INR/EAP/KKERR
SINGAPORE FOR KSEABAUGH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER BX
SUBJECT: BRUNEI: RELUCTANT TO LEAD IMT, AND CRITICAL OF
MALAYSIAN POLITICS

Classified By: John McIntyre, Deputy Chief of Mission.
Reasons 1.4(b and d).


Brunei Resists Pressure to Lead the IMT
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1. (SBU) Poloff on 15 January met with Haji Mulok Haji
Jamat, the Deputy Director for East Asia and the Pacific
Affairs in the Political I section of the Brunei Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and Trade (MOFAT). Mulok told Poloff that
Brunei plans to only supply monitors to the International
Monitoring Team (IMT) in Mindanao, while the Malaysian
contingent will remain the leader of the IMT and lead
facilitator of the Philippines Government (GRP)/ Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF) peace talks. Mulok said the GRP has
not asked Brunei to lead the IMT and only the governments of
Malaysia and Indonesia are under consideration. Mulok said
the GRP, however, has asked Brunei to provide additional
monitors beyond its current ten but the Bruneian Government
has yet to agree to an actual number. The GRP has also
requested that Brunei extend its term until this February but
this is also still under consideration by the Bruneian
Government, according to Mulok.


2. (SBU) Mulok attributed the failure of the Memorandum of
Agreement on Ancestral Domain to the GRP. He said he
personally believed that the GRP should have consulted the
Philippine Supreme Court beforehand and that the MILF dispute
probably will not be resolved under the current Arroyo
administration. He also believed the appointment of Foreign
Affairs Undersecretary Rafael Seguis to head of the peace
panel was proof that the GRP was not taking negotiations
seriously because Seguis is not cabinet-ranked.


3. (SBU) Poloff and Deputy Chief of Mission (DCM) on 20
January received conflicting information on Brunei's IMT
participation from a meeting at the Philippine Embassy in
Brunei. The Defense and Armed Forces Attach at the
Philippine Embassy, Col. Emmanuel Cacdac, said Brunei will
lead the IMT if Brunei receives approval from the Malaysian
Government and the MILF. Cacdac said the GRP is currently
looking at the logistics involved in appointing Brunei as
leader of the IMT. He said there are no current moves to
appoint Malaysia or Indonesia as leader of the IMT.

Mutual Benefits from Brunei's IMT Role
--------------


4. (SBU) Despite Brunei's reluctance to take lead in the
IMT, the Philippine Embassy in Brunei expects the Bruneian
government's role to expand beyond peace monitoring and into
development aid in Mindanao. At the same meeting with the
Philippines Embassy in Brunei on 20 January, the Minister,
Celeste Balatbat, said Brunei must also contribute to
community development projects in Mindanao under the GRP's
new paradigm for the peace process. The Government of Brunei
is currently partnered with the GRP to develop an Islamic
Civic Center in the Cotabato province. The Government of
Brunei has already contributed by building a mosque and
sports facility, donating Qurans and food, and providing
scholarships to Madrasah teachers for studies at the
University of Brunei Darussalem.


5. (SBU) Balatbat also said Brunei receives mutual benefits
from its participation in the IMT. She said the Bruneian
peace monitors return to Brunei with more confidence and are
promoted to higher positions. Col. Aminuddin Hihsan-the
leader of the first batch of Bruneian monitors in 2004-was
promoted to Commander of the Royal Brunei Land Forces.
Balatbat said it is highly competitive in the Royal Brunei
Armed Forces to become a peace monitor on the Bruneian
contingent. The Royal Brunei Armed Forces in September 2008
deployed its fifth batch of ten monitors in Cotabato City for
a ten month tour under the leadership of Lt. Col. Tajuddin,
according to Balatbat. Haji Mulok Haji Jamat said during our
meeting on 15 January that Brunei benefits from the MILF
peace negotiations because fighting has been problematic for
Bruneian businessmen and the BIMP-EAGA. He said Bruneian
businessmen are currently having problems promoting their
Halal products among the Muslim population in Davao,
Philippines.


Brunei Officials Critical of Malaysia's Political Climate
-------------- --------------


6. (SBU) Mulok during our meeting on 15 January also
discussed the Bruneian government's views on Malaysian
politics. Mulok said the Government of Brunei did not
believe Pakatan Rakyat (PR),Malaysia's opposition coalition,
would win in the upcoming Sarawak elections because the PR
still lacks a sufficient amount of voter support. Mulok said
the Government of Brunei thought Barisan Nasional (BN),
Malaysia's ruling coalition, would only win by a small
margin. Despite the Sabahans' disappointment with Prime
Minister Abdullah Badawi, Mulok said the PR still does not
offer Sabahans' any opportunities to participate in the
government.


7. (SBU) On Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister Najib Razak,
Mulok said he personally believed that Najib will not last
long as Prime Minister if he assumes the position in March.
Mulok believed Najib lacks charisma, has a domineering wife,
and is too controversial, particularly because of his
speculated association with the murder of Mongolian
translator, Altantuya Shaariibuu. He said the Bruneian
Government views Najib as corrupt and a sitting duck who
always goes for the winning team. On Malaysian opposition
leader, Anwar Ibrahim, Mulok said the Bruneian Government
still believes Anwar is a potential Malay leader but is too
ambitious. Since joining the PR, Mulok said Anwar has changed
and forgotten his initial reason for joining politics which
was the struggle for Muslim and Malay issues. Mulok said the
Bruneian Government respected Anwar when he was Deputy Prime
Minister under Mahathir Mohamad but now believes Anwar is
overconfident and greedy.

Comment
--------------


8. (C//NF) The Borneo Bulletin reported that His Majesty the
Sultan will make a three-day visit to the Philippines from 29
January to 31 January to commemorate the 25th anniversary of
diplomatic ties. While we expect His Majesty to agree to
strengthen cooperation with the Philippines, he probably will
not agree to lead the IMT, especially given the resistance we
have seen throughout our meetings with MOFAT. The Philippine
Ambassador to Brunei, however, has made it her personal
mission to persuade Brunei to be the lead facilitator of the
IMT before she leaves her post in Brunei.


9. (C//NF) The conflictinQstatements between the Philippines
Embassy and Haji Mulok Haji Jamat probably reflect the
Bruneian Government's continuing reluctance to take lead in
any multilateral negotiations. The Bruneian Government seems
content with its current role in the IMT, and likely will
continue to deflect offers to be the lead facilitator. MOFAT
officials have emphasized in our meetings that Brunei does
not intervene in the internal politics of other countries
because it cannot afford to develop enemies with its small
army. Mulok was surprisingly candid with his thoughts on the
Malaysian political climate; his candor was unusual for
meetings between Embassy Bandar and Bruneian government
officials.

TODD