AZERBAIJAN: MPS DEBATE NK AND DEMOCRATIC REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000955

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL SZ AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: MPS DEBATE NK AND DEMOCRATIC REFORM

Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a lively, sometimes heated, discussion on
December 3, Members of Parliament from different political
parties talked about the major problems facing Azerbaijan
with Ethan Goldrich, visiting Director of the State
Department's Office of Caucasus Affairs and Regional
Conflicts. All MPs agreed that a creative solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be found soon, and that the
international community needed to take a more active approach
to this issue. While the parties disagreed on the level of
democracy Azerbaijan currently has, they all agreed that more
technical aid from the U.S. could help, and in particular
exchange programs should be expanded. END SUMMARY.

U.S. neglect of Azerbaijan?
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2. (C) Asim Mollazade, of the Democratic Reforms Party, began
the discussion by expressing his fear that Azerbaijan is
being neglected by the Obama Administration. With the focus
on "resetting" relations with Russia and the big push in
Afghanistan, Mollazade stated Azerbaijan could be forgotten,
citing the current lack of an Ambassador as an example.
Goldrich replied improving relations between the U.S. and
Russia will benefit the entire South Caucasus, as Russia will
stop seeing the region in terms of a zero-sum game. Samad
Seyidov of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party also raised the
issue of the recent referendum in Switzerland banning the
construction of minarets. Seyidov said he would raise it at
the next Council of Europe meeting as an evidence of the
double standards the West has on human rights issues, and the
other MPs also expressed similar disappointment over the vote.

Nagorno-Karabakh
--------------


3. (C) As all conversations in Azerbaijan, the talk quickly
switched to Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Both opposition and
ruling party representatives stated that NK was Azerbaijan's
number one problem. Igbal Agazade of the Umid Party stated
that a referendum on the final status of NK should not be
included in the Basic Principles. He believes this will lead
to other ethnic areas of Azerbaijan using NK as a precedent
to separate. He also believes that Russia is doing
everything it can to prolong the conflict. He called for an
EU-like confederation of states in the South Caucasus as a
solution to these ethnic divisions. Nasib Nassibli of the
Musavat Party agreed with these points, and believed that the
best way to begin integrating the three countries was to
start with Azerbaijan and Georgia, and then to press Armenian
public opinion.


4. (C) Ali Huseynov of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party said
that creative solutions for the NK conflict were needed now.
He stated that when the parties are close to a solution, both
sides will have to compromise and neither public is ready for
this. While it will be hard to convince the publics of new
creative solutions, Huseynov believes that the international
community needs to push these ideas.

Democratic reform
--------------


5. (C) Agazade then raised the "painful" issue of
Azerbaijan's lack of democratic development. He explained
that political parties have no power in Azerbaijan, and there
is no legal way for a new party to take over governing the
country, given the limits on parliament and the prime
minister's power. He suggested a solution to these many
issues would be to ensure opposition representation of
government oversight institutions, such as the State Oil Fund
and Public Television Board.


6. (C) Samad Seyidov disagreed with Agazade, stating that it
is not the government's fault that the opposition is weak.
Nassibli replied, however that there are three reasons the
opposition is weak: oil revenues, oppression by the
government, and mistake made by opposition leaders. Nassibli
stated that there is zero democracy in Azerbaijan at present.
Seyidov disagreed again, and stated that the U.S. has double
standards when it evaluates the level of democracy and human
rights in country.


7. (C) Asim Mollazade stated that it is up to the Azerbaijani
people to bring democracy to Azerbaijan, not the United
States. Azerbaijan needs new technologies and a new class of
managers. Americans can help however by sharing their
experience and knowledge with Azerbaijanis and in particular
by funding Azerbaijanis to study abroad. He pointed out that
change came to Georgia through people who had studied in the
U.S. during the early 1990s, while at that time the USG was
providing almost no aid to Azerbaijan.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) The discussion between these MPs of different
political parties was lively, at some points even heated.
There were, however two points on which both the opposition
and the ruling party agreed. First, now is the time for
creative solutions on NK, and these solutions need to be
pushed by the international community. Secondly, the USG can
help Azerbaijan by providing more aid in the form of exchange
programs. These programs allow Azerbaijanis to learn from
United States best practices, but they do not frighten the
GOAJ through demands for immediate change.


9. (U) Ethan Goldrich has cleared this cable.
LU