AZERBAIJAN DOWNPLAYS NAGORNO-KARABAKH LINE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000733

SIPDIS

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2019
TAGS: PREL PRGOV PINR TU AM AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN DOWNPLAYS NAGORNO-KARABAKH LINE OF
CONTACT INCIDENT

REF: A. BAKU 690

B. BAKU 697

C. BAKU 709

Classified By: Charge Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Azerbaijani media reported a firefight 10
September at 0900 local in the Aghdam sector of the Line of
Contact (LOC) with the ethnic Armenian forces of the
"Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" (NKR) that left five NKR troops
dead and ten wounded, with one Azerbaijani soldier also
wounded. Official confirmation of the details of the
incident have not been forthcoming. Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov discussed the issue with his Turkish colleague
Davutoglu on September 11, but the call was initiated by
Davutoglu. There has been little other official public
comment, though the Azerbaijani press has published details.
Taken by itself the incident does not appear to have the
character of a provocation designed to undermine the
Turkey-Armenia process, and, unless similar incidents follow
appears unlikely to do so. End Summary.


2. (C) Little information to confirm the reports from
Azerbaijani correspondents in the Aghdam region emerged in
the first day or two after the incident. (Note: Aghdam region
occupies a central position on the long north-south axis of
the L-shaped LOC. Along with the southernmost Fizuli
district it is one of the most active areas of the LOC. End
Note.) The Azerbaijan MOD did not directly confirm the
incident either to the Embassy or to the office of the
Personal Representative of the OSCE CiO in Baku, except to
correct the press report of the surname of the wounded
soldier. Press reports also indicated that three of the five
dead soldiers' bodies were in the "no-man's land" between the
trench lines, but the ICRC in Baku could not confirm that,
either.


3. (SBU) Azerbaijani media further reported on September 12
that the Foreign Minister had discussed the event with his
Turkish counterpart when the latter called him on September

11. Speaking at a press conference, Davutoglu said that
while Turkey was concerned by the events, these things had
happened before. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry spokesman
characterized the incident in identical terms.


4. (C) Comment. There is no evidence available to suggest
that this incident is a provocation by either side
(Azerbaijani or Karabakhi) to influence the Turkey-Armenia
process, or that this incident by itself could do so if that
were the intent. There is certainly compelling logic that
suggests that Azerbaijan could seek to pressure Turkey to
slow down its progress with Armenia by raising tensions on
the LOC - logic that would apply equally to the NKR forces
vis-a-vis Yerevan. However, evidence at hand does not
support that explanation of September 10's events. Reports of
ceasefire violations are a daily staple of Azerbaijani news.
Aghdam district is one of the most active sectors of the LOC
for this type of activity, as it is one of the few places
where the opposing forces face one another over open ground.
These events usually do not result in multiple casualties,
but it does happen. Occasionally one side or the other will
attempt to move its line forward in a particular area and
take fire and casualties when they move into the open. If
the reports are accurate, this may have been the scenario on
September 10.


5. (C) Comment Continued. Such an event would be unlikely to
have been provoked by Azerbaijan at this point to influence
the Turkey-Armenia process. The event, despite the
casualties, was still small and not very distinguishable from
confrontations that take place every day on the LOC. Also, a
blatant attempt to connect an event like this to the
normalization talks would be inconsistent with the measured
response Azerbaijan has taken to the August 31 announcement
(Reftels),as putting Turkey "on the spot" would likely

BAKU 00000733 002 OF 002


threaten to upset whatever political understanding Baku and
Yerevan reached before the announcement. Finally, if
Azerbaijan really intended for an incident on the LOC to
generate negativity on the Turkish side toward the Armenia
process, an incident in which Azerbaijan took the casualties
would be more suitable. It cannot, of course, be excluded
that tensions on the LOC would be exploited by one or more
interested parties as the Turkey-Armenia process moves
forward. However, unless this incident is followed by
others, it appears unlikely that its timing was anything
other than an unfortunate coincidence. End Comment.
LU