Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAKU694
2009-09-02 11:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

IRAN POLITICS: TEHRAN UNIVERSITY SCHOLAR DICSUSSES

Tags:  PGOV SNAR KIL AJ IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6831
RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKB #0694/01 2451106
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 021106Z SEP 09 ZDF
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1671
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 0142
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000694

SIPDIS

.O. 12958: DECL: 08/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV SNAR KIL AJ IR
SUBJECT: IRAN POLITICS: TEHRAN UNIVERSITY SCHOLAR DICSUSSES
POLITICAL ROLE OF AYATOLLAH MESBAH-YAZDI, CLAIMS IRAN
UNDERGOING "HISTORIC TRANSFORMATION"

BAKU 00000694 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Political/Economic Counselor Rob Garverick, Reason 1.4 (
B and D)

///////ZDF///////////ZDF////////////ZDF////// //////
PLEASE CANCEL. CABLE SENT TWICE BY MISTAKE.
////////ZDF//////////ZDF/////////////ZDF///// ///


BAKU 00000694 002 OF 003


sobbing in the streets." He explained that before the
election, many Iranians had argued that there was at least
some democracy in the system, and that if left alone the
regime would by itself evolve into a more democratic and
liberal state. Even system opponents and self-declared
skeptics felt that evolutionary change within the system was
possible. According to Kaymars, the blatantly stolen
election and the cynical, repressive aftermath were "blows to
the face" that largely demolished this view.


6. (C) Kaymars called Ayatollah Khameini's June 19 sermon
"the second transformational point." He asserted that after
Khameini's public anointment of Ahmedinejad, and references
to his "divinely inspired" election victory, "Tehran
exploded." He compared public reaction in the days after the
election to the 1999 Tehran student demonstrations (in which
he also participated). He explained that in 1999, "we hoped
(in vain) for South Tehranis to join us," but in June and
July 2009 "South Tehranis were everywhere."


7. (C) In contrast to 1999, he continued, for many days
"everybody" protested and/or shouted slogans from the
rooftops: &North Tehranis, South Tehranis, students,
bazaaris, were chanting death to Khameini, death to the
dictator, we are unified,8 and other protest slogans. "A
lot of people were in the streets (in the days after the
sermon),and a lot of shooting occurred," he said. He
explained that this event was also critical as it shattered
the image of Khameini as an honest, independent arbiter above
politics, and revealed him to be "just another political liar
and intriguer."


8. (C) According to Kaymars, "Phase Three" began with
Rafsanjani's re-galvanizing sermon on July 17, and is
currently ongoing. "Don't be misled by the current calm
surface," he warned, "a lot of political activity is
happening." Despite this strong assertion, he described that

the opposition as a coalition of many different groups,
lacking organization and facing problems of ultimate
direction and leadership. He characterized Mousavi as
stubborn, but not charismatic; Karroubi as courageous, but
with few institutional allies; and Khatami as cautious and
weak. He depicted Rafsanjani's role as short-term and
tactical, arguing that he lacks sufficient popular legitimacy
for long term leadership. He nonetheless acknowledged
Rafsanjani's "cleverness" and strength of personality, and
said he remains important in the near term for intra-regime
political maneuvering, and for "funneling money" to support
the opposition.

Khameini "Not Close to Ahmadinejad"
--------------


9. (C) Kaymars observed that Supreme Leader Khameini is not
personally close to Ahmadinejad, or even strongly in favor of
him, but is caught between the "rock" of Rafsanjani/Moussavi
and the "hard place" of Mesbah-Yazdi, Ahmadinejad, and their
Revolutionary Guard allies. He claimed that Khameini has
limited political maneuverability, and is primarily focused
on protecting his and his son Mojtaba's future. He asserted
that opposition efforts are underway to split Khameini from
the Mebah-Yazdi group, and scapegoat the latter for legal and
human rights abuses.

Opposition Use of Foreign Media and the Internet
-------------- --


10. (C) Kaymars asserted that most Iranians are repulsed and
embarrassed by the show trials, and despite nagging
historical "default" suspicion of Britain, "no one believes
that foreign countries were behind the protests." He said
that Iranians have no confidence in domestic media, and
claimed that Mousavi and his allies are effectively using
foreign media and the internet to propagandize and get their
word out. He said that, "even in villages, at least one
person in every family is internet-literate," and claimed
that Iranians have become adept at successfully playing "hide
and seek" with the authorities," and are becoming more so."
He added that BBC and VOA are widely watched, and are also
playing "a very important role" in delivering and spreading
opposition-based and other information.


BAKU 00000694 003 OF 003


Narcotics and Drug Addiction
--------------


11. (SBU) Kaymars related that at three AM in Tehran
University dorms, "you can't buy sweets, but can buy all
kinds of narcotics," including heroin. One dose of
heroin-based &Iranian Crack8 costs one dollar. In addition
to the widespread availability of cheap opiate derivatives,
he noted that the addictive, &high8 producing pain-killer
Tramadol (AKA &Zydol8) is very popular and can be purchased
without a prescription at any pharmacy, at the price of ten
pills for 50 cents.

Obama/U.S. "Very Popular" in Iran
--------------


12. (SBU) According to Kaymars, Iranians like President
Obama very much, and appreciate his outreach efforts. "He's
the only politician I've ever liked," he said. In general,
the U.S. was and is very popular among Iranians, he noted.
LU