Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAKU448
2009-06-03 06:16:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baku
Cable title:  

AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR

Tags:  AJ IR PGOV PREL RU TR 
pdf how-to read a cable
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1306
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000448 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: AJ IR PGOV PREL RU TR
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR
DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES AND NABUCCO

REF: A. REF A: BAKU 392

B. REF B: BAKU 439

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000448

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/03/2019
TAGS: AJ IR PGOV PREL RU TR
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR
DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES AND NABUCCO

REF: A. REF A: BAKU 392

B. REF B: BAKU 439

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Senior Congressional Staff Members Markovsky
and Katz met with the Head of the Foreign Relations Division
Novruz Mammadov May 27 and 29 to discuss GOAJ relations with
its neighbors and the U.S. Mammadov's comments focused on
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) and the seven occupied districts.
Although Azerbaijan would like the immediate return of all
seven occupied districts, he said, the GOAJ would consider it
a good initial step if five of the seven were returned.
Mammadov also stated that, although relations have been
mended, the GOAJ is ready to sacrifice its relationship with
Turkey if Turkey opens its borders with Armenia without a
resolution on NK. Mammadov said the Iranian Ambassador to
Baku warned him of "very, very grave consequences" if the
GOAJ hosts the Israeli president in July. He added that
Russia has been applying pressure to Azerbaijan for its
ongoing commitment to the Nabucco pipeline. END SUMMARY

MAMMADOV: ARMENIA WILL USE DELAY TACTICS IN ST PETERSBURG
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Head of the President's Foreign Relations Division
Novruz Mammadov met twice with Congerssional Staff
Delegation, Alan Markovsky and Jonathan Katz, to discuss
Azerbaijani relations with the U.S., Armenia and Turkey.
Mammadov focused on Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) and said he
expected that Armenia will use delaying tactics in St.
Petersburg, where presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan are
scheduled to meet June 4. Mammadov said that although
Azerbaijan would prefer Armenia to release all seven occupied
territories, the GOAJ would accept an initial first step of
immediate withdrawal from five of the seven territories. The
return of all seven territories would be impossible and
unrealistic for now, Mammadov said. Armenia emerged from the
May 7 Aliyev-Sargsyan meeting in Prague without making
compromises, yet without criticism for non-constructive
behavior, he noted. Combined with a lack of western
pressure, Armenia now has no incentive to negotiate and will

pursue hardline tactics. Mammadov asserted that these
results from Prague underscored that the Minsk Group process
is flawed.


3. (C) (COMMENT: Mammadov did not repeat the public charges
he made recently against Minsk Group Co-Chair Matthew Bryza,
but he reasserted the GOAJ's displeasure at the statement the
co-chairs released immediately following the meeting between
Presidents Aliyev and Sargsyan. Mammadov said the GOAJ was
not alerted to the large numbers of media that would be at
the post-meeting, nor was President Aliyev told that the
co-chairs would release a statement following the meeting.
The GOAJ considered the statement to be too deferential to
Armenia and contributed to Armenia's more positive image
going forward. END COMMENT)

ARMENIA WANTS TO DIVIDE U.S. FROM TURKEY AND AZERBAIJAN
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Mammadov said GOAJ relations with Turkey have been
reinforced since the May 13-14 visit of Turkish Prime
Minister Erdogan (REF A). He added, however, that NK is so
important to the GOAJ that Azerbaijan would sacrifice all
relations with Turkey if Turkey were to open the border to
Armenia without an NK resolution. Returning to Armenian
foreign policy intentions, Mammadov said he believed
Armenia's policy regarding "genocide" is designed to drive a
wedge between the U.S. and Turkey, and Armenian policy on NK
is to place the U.S. in opposition to the GOAJ.

RUSSIA AND IRAN APPLYING PRESSURE TO GOAJ
--------------


5. (C) Mammadov said the GOAJ has received a good deal of
pressure from Iran regarding the GOAJ's invitation to host
the Israeli President in July. He said the Iranian
Ambassador had met him the day before and promised "very,
very grave consequences" if Azerbaijan followed through with
its plans for the visit, as it would be the only Muslim
country to receive the Israeli president. (COMMENT: Foreign
Minister Elmar Mammadyarov in a separate meeting with Staff
Delegation later that day confirmed that the GOAJ intends to
move forward as planned and said it will signal that Iran
cannot push the GOAJ around. See REF B. END COMMENT)

BAKU 00000448 002 OF 002




6. (C) Regarding Russia, Mammadov said Russia promised the
GOAJ "serious consequences" for its participation in the
Eastern Partnership. Russia also continues to privately
voice its concern to GOAJ officials for their support of the
Nabucco natural gas project, which cuts out Russia.

NABUCCO NOT YET A LOST OPPORTUNITY
--------------


7. (C) Turning his attention to Nabucco, Mammadov said there
is still time "to save" the project. He said the lack of
progress over the last two years on Nabucco is only
compounded by today's global economic crisis and that because
companies do not have money, western governments should renew
their interest and fund the pipeline project. Mammadov also
said the GOAJ is prepared to contribute 10-15 bcm the first
year of Nabucco's operations and believes Turkmenistan will
follow Azerbaijan's lead.

Comment: As Always, Focus on Armenia
--------------


8. (C) It is not surprising that Mammadov chose to use his
time with the Staffdel to focus on Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh. At this point in time -- given
Turkish-Armenian rapprochement and the presidents meetings in
Prague and St. Petersburg, and following the May 13-14 PM
Erdogan visit and repeated stops in Baku by Turkey's new
Foreign Minister -- the issues are particularly sensitive for
the Azerbaijanis. Mammadov continues to complain about the
co-chairs' post-Prague press statement, and is repeating the
call for the immediate return of the five territories (rather
than endorsing the 3 1 approach of the Minsk Group).
Azerbaijan clearly is trying to set the stage for St.
Petersburg, with a finger pointing toward Yerevan in case the
talks there do not succeed. End Comment
DERSE