AZERBAIJAN: MFA DEPMIN FURTHER EXPLAINS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000195

SIPDIS

EUR FOR MATT BRYZA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: MFA DEPMIN FURTHER EXPLAINS
AFGHANISTAN, PAKISTAN OUTLOOK

REF: BAKU 160

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse,
Reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C)Summary: Azerbaijan Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov
described a stark situation in Pakistan and expressed fears
of Afghanistan losing control of its southern regions in a
February 2 meeting with the Ambassador. Social instability
and corruption are exacerbating the situation, and many
ordinary Afghans now see the NATO presence as an
"intervention of values." To resolve the crisis in South
Asia, he said, the Obama Administration ""needs to redefine
goals," linking Afghanistan and Pakistan security and
developmental issues. Moreover, he said, "we have to talk to
the Taliban." Azerbaijan is active in Afghanistan, with 90
troops on the ground and working to craft an ambitious
assistance program. Azerbaijan also increasingly sees
Afghanistan as a business opportunity. End Summary


2. (C) Ambassador met February 2 with Deputy Minister of
Foreign Affairs Araz Azimov to follow up on her recent
conversation with President Aliyev on the U.S. strategic
review of Afghanistan/ Pakistan (ref). Azimov, who served as
an interpreter in the Soviet Army in Afghanistan 1980-1983,
offered many insights, based on experience in South Asia and
a September 2008 visit to the region.

Azerbaijan, South Asia "Friends"
--------------


3. (C) Pakistan and Afghanistan, Azimov said, are "friends of
Azerbaijan." Baku sees South Asia as a strategic region, and
possibly as a future "exit route" for oil, gas and related
products. With this in mind, Azerbaijan has promoted
investment in Afghanistan, with a "wealthy private
Azerbaijani" having already purchased a small oil refinery
near Herat.


4. (C) Pakistan, however, is unstable and unpredictable,
Azimov said. Pervez Musharraf was "in control," but did not
hold on to power. As a result of opposition harassment, he
"suffered a lot," but "did not deserve that." Now, Azimov
said, the country is ruled by a "group of politicians," who
cannot maintain order. This situation, he said, is
untenable. Afghanistan, meanwhile, is at risk of losing
control of southern regions. Infrastructure is not well
developed and corruption is rampant. In this regard,
"Afghanistan had not changed in 26 years." NATO cannot cover
and protect the entire country; the responsibility is too
large. Corruption, he fears, has spread to Afghanistan,s
military, and narcotics are a huge problem.


5. (C) Azimov said that following his September 2008 visit to
Afghanistan, which included an inter-agency team, he prepared
a report for the Foreign Minister. That report concluded
that Afghanistan,s long run is unclear, with the country,s
security environmental at a critical stage. Social
instability, as a result of corruption and the lack of social
infrastructure, is a threat to the central government.
Azimov stated that "foreign invaders" have a poor track
record in Afghanistan; Soviet and British experience in the
region notwithstanding. Many Afghans now see the NATO
presence as an "intervention of values." In general, Afghans
see U.S. soldiers as "a threat," while Turkish or other
Muslim soldiers are "ok."

Time To Redefine Goals
--------------


6. (C) Azimov noted that the U.S. and NATO have already been
in Afghanistan for seven years, and the Obama Administration
"needs to redefine goals." Washington should pursue a
regional strategy, considering Afghanistan and Pakistan
together. "This is exactly what the Obama Administration is
doing," he added. For example, the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border is 2,600 kilometers long, and has only one checkpoint.

BAKU 00000195 002 OF 002


Thus, it is impossible to control. He also wondered aloud
what type of role Russia might play in Afghanistan. Will the
U.S. make an offer? "Moscow is waiting to hear."


7. (C) Azimov suggested that Westerners should not "try to
win the ideological argument" against the Taliban in
Afghanistan. The Taliban may not be universally popular )
and even loathed by some elements of the population ) but it
is "part of the fabric" of the country. Thus, he said, to
resolve the crisis in Afghanistan, "we have to talk to the
Taliban." Azimov questioned the legitimacy of elections in
Afghanistan, noting the "voting is highly suspect."
Individuals, he said, do not have voices, as "blocs are
determined by clans." Moreover, there is no national census,
so determining voter lists is impossible.

Azerbaijan to Craft Assistance Plan
--------------


8. (C) The Ambassador asked Azimov to describe ongoing and
proposed areas of cooperation between Azerbaijan and
Afghanistan. Much is taking place, the Deputy Minister said,
as a result of his September 2008 visit to Kabul and a
reciprocal Afghan visit to Baku in December 2008. The GOAJ,
he said, is offering to conduct courses, seminars and other
training activities, focused on border control, demining and
law enforcement. The MFA,s Diplomatic Academy has also
reached out to Afghanistan,s Foreign Ministry with a
proposal to train new diplomats in Baku in the future.
Moreover, Baku is prepared to fund construction of a girls
school in Afghanistan and is offering to build hospitals and
clinics. Azimov noted that following his September visit to
Kabul, Afghanistan,s Foreign Minister visited Baku late last
year. At that point, Azerbaijan offered assistance projects
to Afghanistan. Baku is still waiting for an official
response. In support of coalition activities, Azerbaijan
agreed last year to double its military presence in
Afghanistan. Ninety troops are now in place. Azerbaijan has
an embassy in Pakistan and maintains a diplomatic "office" in
Kabul.

Comment: Azerbaijan Looks East
--------------


9. (C) DepMin Azimov clearly considers himself an expert on
issues related to Afghanistan, based on his Soviet army
experience. Being able to speak a local language is a great
benefit, and the DepMin noted repeatedly his discussions with
"ordinary people." Azerbaijan has already reached out to
Kabul to offer assistance and is eager to expand cooperation.
Baku also sees Afghanistan as a business opportunity,
particularly as relations with Turkmenistan improve.
DERSE