WHY NOW FOR CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS REFERENDUM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000188

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DRL (WSILVERMAN),INR (PSTRONSKI)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL AJ
SUBJECT: WHY NOW FOR CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS REFERENDUM?

REF: BAKU 16

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, for Reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: The GOAJ's announcement to hold a
referendum on changing the constitution to remove, inter
alia, the two-term limit on the presidency was rushed through
parliament just two months after President Ilham Aliyev
overwhelmingly won a second five year term in office. The
speed of this decision may indicate that Aliyev feels
insecure in his control over the country, and worries about
questions of succession. Political commentators attribute
this insecurity to either fighting between internal factions,
possibly supported by economic interests and/or activities of
Azerbaijan's neighbors, or even external economic problems.
Multiple factors are probably at play, including the current
weakness and disorganization of the opposition, in the
decision to hold the referendum March 18, which will very
likely result in Aliyev's continued dominance of Azerbaijan's
politics. End Summary.


2. (C) The GOAJ announced its plan to hold a referendum to
make 29 amendments to the Constitution, including the removal
of the two term limit on the president (reftel),just two
months after Ilham Aliyev won his second term as president by
an overwhelming 88 percent of the vote. This cable addresses
the possible reasons for the haste in holding this
referendum, given the seeming popularity of the current
regime and the apparent absence of immediate threats to power.

Internal Factors
--------------


3. (C) Fariz Isamayilzade, a largely pro-government political
pundit currently working for the Azerbaijan Diplomatic
Academy, believes that the referendum is being held now due
to President Aliyev's worry about being perceived as a lame
duck president. He believes that as soon as Aliyev began his
second term, powerful figures both inside the country and in
Russia and Iran began to look for ways to identify and
support an individual who might become the next president.
Therefore, Aliyev had to change the Constitution in order to
preserve political stability in the country. Ismayilzade
went as far as to say that without this referendum, Aliyev
may not have been able to serve his full five-year second
term, as some other power broker may have unseated him.


4. (C) Rasim Musabayov, another well-known independent
political commentator, also argues that internal power
struggles were the motivation for holding the referendum
quickly. He believes it is a signal from conservative
elements of the government to supporters of first lady
Mehriban Aliyeva that Ilham Aliyev does not intend to turn
power over to her in 2013. (Note: the first lady comes from
the Pashayev family, which has traditionally been one of the
most powerful in the country. Hafiz Pashayev, Azerbaijan's
first Ambassador to the United States, is Mehriban's uncle.
End Note.) Musabayov also believed that this referendum had
to happen urgently, or Mehriban's supporters, who fall
outside the Aliyevs' Nakhchivan clan, would begin undermining
Aliyev's rule.


5. (C) Eldeniz Elgun, a former pro-government television
journalist who now writes for opposition newspapers, also
cites internal power struggles as the main reason for the
referendum, explaining that there are actually several
factions fighting for future control of the government and
its associated financial benefits. According to Elgun, the
three major factions are headed respectively by Ramiz
Mehdiyev (head of the Presidential Apparat),Kemaladdin
Heydarov (Minister of Emergency Situations),and Mehriban
Aliyeva "with the support of Eldar Mahmudov" (Minister of
National Security). Similar to Musabayov, Elgun believes
that First Lady Mehriban has the support of the more
progressive, Russian-speaking elites from the Baku and
Shirvan areas, where the Pashayev family has traditionally
had strong backing. Mehdiyev, by contrast, represents the
more conservative element from the western enclave of
Nakhchivan, where the Aliyev family originates. Elgun
believes Mehriban's faction had been gaining influence
recently, and this referendum is an attempt to stifle this.


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6. (C) Human rights defender Leyla Yunus, who is coordinating
opposition efforts to defeat the constitutional changes, also
strongly suggested that internal factors, namely economic
rivalry and &clan8 operations, stand behind the hasty
referendum. Yunus, in a frank conversation with Emboffs,
noted that Ilham Aliyev, who had a reputation as somewhat of
a "playboy" before coming to power, has failed to develop as
firm a grip on power as his father had had. The elder Heydar
Aliyev, who passed away in 2003, a Soviet-era Central
Committee First Secretary and the highest ranking Muslim in
the Politburo, understood power dynamics in the post-Soviet
sphere. Ilham, however, who hails from a different
generation, has not been able to maintain such a definitive
hold over Azerbaijan various factions. Aliyev himself
reportedly has complained privately to western interlocutors
that he is running a government that is like a western
European coalition government -- but without the benefit of a
coalition agreement.

External Factors
--------------


7. (C) Leyla Aliyeva, another well-known political pundit,
stated that external economic factors were the major reason
to rush the referendum. The worldwide economic crisis, the
fall in the price of oil, and Azerbaijan's falling oil output
combine to create an uncertain political future and thus
opportunities for the President's rivals. The referendum,
then, is a way for Aliyev to capitalize on his decisive
October victory and strengthen his position against all
comers as the situation becomes more fluid.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) Despite Aliyev's overwhelming victory in the October
2008 presidential election, the quick organization of a
referendum to lock in his position clearly indicates that he
is insecure about maintaining control over the country, and
possibly his seat, as a lame duck. Azerbaijan's influx of
oil wealth has intensified Azerbaijan's traditionally tough
internal politics, which increasingly coalesce around
economic as well as clan interests and give rise to alternate
centers of power. It is probable that Aliyev's sense of
insecurity stems from a lack of control over both internal
political factions and external economic factors. In this
environment, it makes sense that Aliyev would take advantage
of a strong popular mandate to enact a speedy change to the
constitution to ensure his continued dominance. In addition,
the current weakness of opposition parties in Azerbaijan
ensures that passage of the referendum is not a gamble for
Aliyev.
DERSE