CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS REFERENDUM UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000016

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DRL (WSILVERMAN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL AJ
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS REFERENDUM UPDATE

REF: 08 BAKU 1185

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Lu, Reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Azerbaijan's Parliament and Constitutional
Court have cleared the way for a referendum to be held on
March 18 on 29 proposed amendments to Azerbaijan's
Constitution on a wide range of topics. While some
amendments appear to be benign, such as protecting wildlife,
several challenge the GOAJ's stated commitment to democratic
reform and respect for human rights. The proposed amendments
would remove term limits for the presidency and/or provide
for a term extension, allowing the current president to stay
in office after his current term ends in 2013. Several
amendments would also weaken respect for freedom of speech
and religion. Opposition parties and civil society have
begun to unite behind their disagreement with this
referendum, but it is unlikely that they will be able to stop
the passage of any of these measures. End Summary.


2. (SBU) As reported reftel, the Parliament of Azerbaijan
voted on 19 December 2008 to call a referendum on 29 changes
to the Constitution. On 24 December 2008, President Ilham
Aliyev's birthday, the Constitutional Court approved the
measure. The referendum was then set for March 18. The
Central Election Commission (CEC) and the Presidential
Administration are now working on arranging the technical
aspects of holding the referendum. The CEC held its first
session in connection with the referendum on January 8, and
issued a number of technical instructions, all of which are
similar to those issued for the October 2008 presidential
election.

29 ITEMS ON BALLOT
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2. (SBU) There will be 29 separate items on the referendum
ballot, each representing a new amendment to the
Constitution. Voters will be able to vote on each item
separately, meaning they will have a daunting array of 29
choices to make in the voting booth.


3. (SBU) The amendment that has received the most attention
is the one repealing paragraph 5 of article 101 which states
"No one may be elected President of the Azerbaijan Republic
more than two times." This section would be eliminated, and
in its place a new section stating that presidential
elections may be "postponed during times of war" would be
added. In a separate item, parliamentary elections would
also be allowed to be postponed in times of war. (Note:
Members of parliament have never faced term limits.
Azerbaijan officially is still at war with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh, in spite of a 1994 cease-fire agreement.
End note.) Under the guise of expanding democracy, a
proposed constitutional amendment would broaden "the
legislative initiative" by allowing citizens or private
groups to submit legislative proposals to parliament.
Citizens or groups, however, would have to gather 40,000
signatures to support the effort.


4. (SBU) Other items on the referendum also show a troubling
trend away from respect for human rights. One amendment
would eliminate article 71, paragraph 2 which currently reads
"no one can restrict protection of human rights and
liberties." This would be replaced with a paragraph stating
"everyone's rights and liberties are restricted by the laws
of this Constitution as well as by the rights and liberties
of others." Several of the amendments will make it harder
for journalists to write stories about members of government
including: a prohibition on recording people by camera,
video, or voice without their permission; a prohibition on
interference in private/family life; a provision calling for
punishment of any disrespect for state symbols; and adding a
paragraph to article 50 stating "everyone has the right to
refute information violating his/her rights or damaging
his/her interests published in the mass media." An amendment
to article 18, paragraph 2 expands "religions" to "religious
trends" in terms of a ban on spreading and promoting ideas
that "humiliate people's dignity."


5. (SBU) There are also several amendments that can be seen
as neutral or positive to Azerbaijan's democratic development

BAKU 00000016 002 OF 002


and respect for human rights. These include: a ban on child
labor; the state taking control of care for orphans; renaming
the National Bank to be the Central Bank; a provision stating
that those arrested should immediately be read their rights
and explained the reason for their detention; and decisions
of the Constitutional Court and the Supreme Court must be
published.

"AGITATION" GROUPS FORMING
--------------


6. (U) Under the Election Code, a group of citizens may form
an official group to conduct an "agitation" campaign on the
referendum. In order to register with the CEC as an official
group, the group must submit documents proving they have at
least 2,000 members, and gather signatures of 40,000
registered voters. Smaller groups can be registered with
constituency election commissions, but then the group would
only be allowed to campaign in that constituency. Once a
group has registered as an lobbying group, it is eligible for
free television airtime on public TV, similar to the rules
for a registered presidential candidate. Documents are due
to the CEC on February 1.


7. (SBU) The ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party has already begun
to collect signatures for its lobbying efforts. Opposition
parties, however, have not agreed whether to form a united
group or try to register as several groups. The Musavat
Party originally announced that it would form an opposition
group under the name "Republicans," while the Azadliq Bloc
and Eldar Namazov's "For the Sake of Azerbaijan" Forum would
form a separate group. On January 12 however, all five major
opposition parties, the Azerbaijan Democratic Party (leader:
Sardar Jalaloglu) and the Umid Party (leader: Iqbal
Aghazade),who are considered "constructive opposition", and
more than 20 NGOs including religious NGOs announced that
they would form a united group called the "Civil Movement to
Fight for Karabakh and Republic." The Musavat Party still
insists, however, that it will try to register as a separate
group, as having two groups will allow the opposition more
free airtime.

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) Given the widespread disagreement with the referendum
across the range of active opposition and civil society
groups, it is likely that more meetings and demonstrations
will take place in the months leading up to the referendum.
If the opposition succeeds in getting registered as one or
more "agitation" groups, they will have the legal right to
campaign across the country against the referendum. This
campaign will be a serious test of the GOAJ's commitment to
uphold the improved Election Code and Law on Freedom of
Assembly. Even if the GOAJ allows the opposition to hold
demonstrations, however, there is little support for their
views among the general population. Given that the
amendments require only a simple majority of 25 percent voter
turnout to pass, it is likely that the ruling party will
prevail and all 29 proposed amendments will become part of
Azerbaijan's Constitution. If so, President Aliyev and
Members of Parliament could extend their terms in office
indefinitely, either by running for re-election (without term
limits) or by employing the pretext of war as a reason for
postponing elections. In a political environment in which
freedom of speech and assembly is severely restricted, these
particular amendments eliminating term limits and postponing
elections would represent a serious setback for developing a
system of checks and balances on the executive branch of
government.
LU