AZERBAIJAN REFLECTS, LOOKS FOR HIGH-LEVEL U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000151

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/CARC, DEFENSE FOR OUSD(P) DMELLEBY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV RU TU AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN REFLECTS, LOOKS FOR HIGH-LEVEL U.S.
ENGAGEMENT

REF: A. (A) STATE 14097

B. (B) STATE 15623

C. (C) STATE 15959

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Presidential Advisor Novruz Mammadov
bemoaned a Russian resurgence in the Caucasus, calling the
CSTO Rapid Reaction Force "a bloc of resistance" against
NATO. New Russian assertiveness and growing disillusionment
with western support, especially on Nagorno Karabakh, is
influencing certain elements in Azerbaijan,s leadership to
promote closer association with Russia. Mammadov also
criticized Turkey, which some in Baku fear will sell out
Azerbaijan in effort to reconcile with Armenia. As a result,
Baku, including President Aliyev, is left with much
uncertainty, unsure of which way to turn. Mammadov said the
next several weeks will be key, and repeated requests for the
U.S. to consider a high-level visit soon. Embassy again
urges that the Secretary reach out to President Aliyev with
an invitation for the Foreign Minister to visit Washington.
End Summary


2. (C) Ambassador met on February 20 with Presidential
International Relations Advisor Novruz Mammadov to relay
reftel requests for GOAJ input to the USG's review of
strategy in Afghanistan and Pakistan and to discuss meeting
with President Aliyev to hear his views. Mammadov was
enthusiastic, praising the USG's outreach, noting the
President would appreciate the opportunity to share views and
stating that the GOAJ has the ipression that President Obama
has built a "stron experienced team." He also praised the
President's message to the Muslim world, saying his clear
separation of Islam and terrorism was key. Saying Azerbaijan
is a "prudent, but reliable partner," he suggested that
discussion of Afghanistan include how to cope with the
closure of Manas. In a later conversation, after he had
spoken to the President about the request for input in the
Afghanistan/Pakistan review, he suggested that a "high-level
visit to discuss this and other security matters could be
"very productive."

Mammadov Warns on Russia
--------------


3. (C) Addressing prospects for U.S.-Azerbaijan relations
under the new administration, Mammadov answered that
conditions in the region remain deeply unsettling for the
GOAJ. The the government is divided and uncertain about the
best response. Since Vladimir Putin came to power, Russia
has been seeking aggressively to re-establish its regional
dominance. Putin and Medvedev, with strong domestic support,
have made clear that Russia will again be a regional and
international force. Because of such strong popular support,
they are undeterred by Russia's economic woes. Russia is
accelerating, not slowing, its efforts to regain its regional
and global position, and they are succeeding. The New CSTO
Rapid Reaction Force constitutes "a bloc of resistance"
against NATO, especially NATO enlargement, and will help
Russia again establish "a strict zone of control" in the
region.


4. (C) Russia's "hunger for regaining glory" is very
dangerous. It is influencing thinking in Azerbaijan,
Mammadov said. Political elites and officials are very
sensitive to implications for Azerbaijan of the profound
changes in the region and they are divided on the best way
for Azerbaijan to cope with Russian resurgence. Since last
year, a growing number of officials have argued to President
Aliyev that the world is changing, Russia is becoming
stronger and Azerbaijan would benefit from a closer
association with Russia. This group also maintains that the
Minsk Group co-chairs do not really want the conflict
resolved and Azerbaijan should no longer put its hopes on the
Minsk Group and on the West for assistance on this critical
national issue. He added that these arguments are slowly
"eroding" support in the government for the Minsk Group
process and the West, but support is "still holding." Much
depends on what stance the new U.S. administration will take.



5. (C) The Russian invasion of Georgia and the West's
inability to stop or reverse Russia was a watershed, Mammadov

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said. After the invasion, the hard-line group has argued to
President Aliyev that "you are responsible for our security,
and we have no friends, no partners, including Turkey. Who
will help us after Georgia?" Although Azerbaijan doesn't
have the technology to prove it, the GOAJ is convinced arms
sales to Armenia occurred. "But what can we do? We can't
fight Russia."

Turkey Also Causing Consternation
--------------


6. (C) Mammadov was harsh with respect to Turkey, noting that
Azerbaijan has the impression that Turkey has in fact removed
the condition of Nagorno Karabakh from its talks with
Armenia. Turkey mistakenly thinks "we are naive,
unprofessional and we will go along with whatever they do."
If Turkey lifts its condition for Nagorno Karabakh resolution
in normalizing with Armenia, "it will be a catastrophe for
the two states." Recent GOAJ comments to the press that
Turkey owes Azerbaijan a straight answer with respect to
resolution of Nagorno Karabakh and re-establishment of
relations with Armenia resonated widely with the public. He
said several Turkish MPs on a recent visit to Azerbaijan told
GOAJ officials that Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan and
President Gul were "acting against Azerbaijan," and that the
Turkish population was unhappy about their stance -- but they
told the MPs "they have President Aliyev's approval."

Difficult to Maintain Balance
--------------


7. (C) In the midst of these many uncertainties, the GOAJ,
too, is uncertain about "which way to go," Mammadov repeated.
President Aliyev is waiting for the situation to clarify to
take definitive steps. Mammadov reiterated that the fact
that the Russians invaded and occupied Georgia and "no one
could do anything about it...was a huge blow." In this
connection, he said, President Aliyev had been struck by the
February 6 article authored by Presidents Sarkozy and Merkel
in the Suddeutsche Zeitung ("Security as a Joint Risk")
"favoring cooperation with Russia as a partner they cannot do
without." If two leading European states, both members of
NATO, say the future is with Russia "even after Georgia, what
can countries like ours do?" Mammadov asked.


8. (C) For these reasons, it is difficult to see a clear GOAJ
attitude towards the U.S. at present, Mammadov stated. "We
don't know what path to take," he concluded. Mammadov said
President Aliyev has been preoccupied with visitors and
foreign travel in the first part of the year, but planned to
stay in Baku for the next several weeks. In two to three
weeks, he suggested, Azerbaijan's views on its policy
directions would be clearer.

Comment: USG High Level Call, Visit Would Be Timely
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Mammadov, a strong proponent of Western ties and
Azerbaijan's Euro-Atlantic aspirations, was clear in his
message. The Russian invasion and occupation of Georgia and
Russia's intensified efforts to reassert its position in the
Caucasus is influencing thinking in Azerbaijan, introducing
among policymakers and elites a greater degree of uncertainty
and division about how Azerbaijan can best assure its
security in new circumstances. Growing disillusionment with
the Minsk Group, the West and traditional ally Turkey,
particularly on Nagorno Karabahk, is sharpening the debate
and Azerbaijan's traditional sense of isolation.


10. (C) Mammadov left the clear impression that the next
several weeks will be a period of reflection, clarification
and decision on Azerbaijan's foreign policy directions in
light of new regional circumstances. Against the backdrop of
increased Russian attention to Azerbaijan, including a
February 21 Medvedev call to Aliyev, the visit this week of
Russian Presidential Apparat Chief Sergei Naryshkin (his
third in four months) and that of Foreign Minister Lavrov in
March10-11, he encouraged the U.S. to consider a high-level
visit soon as well. We again urge that the Secretary reach
out to President Aliyev by phone to express our interest in
continued and deepened cooperation across the range of shared
interests, and to invite Foreign Minister Mammadyarov to
visit Washington this spring. End comment.

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DERSE