AZERBAIJAN SHAKEN BY GENERAL'S MURDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000126

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CARC, DEFENSE FOR OUSD(P) DMELLEBY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL RU AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN SHAKEN BY GENERAL'S MURDER

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Baku is in a state of shock following the
February 11 murder in broad daylight of the commander of the
country's air force and air defense forces, Lt. Gen Rail
Rzayev. He held the rank of Deputy Minister of Defense.
Rzayev died from a single gunshot from an assailant who
attacked when the General's car made a brief stop on the way
to work. The circumstances of the attack clearly indicate a
professional hit. Rzayev's murder crosses a line in
Azerbaijan, where politics and business can be rough but
murders are exceedingly rare. Rzayev, who had served as air
force commander since 1992, was a close personal ally of
President Aliyev. Embassy sources point to a variety of
possible motives for the murder. While we emphasize the
sketchiness of available details on this count, the most
plausible theory suggests a local mastermind and an
unmistakable challenge to the President's authority. End
Summary.


A Professional Hit
--------------


2. (C) The circumstances of Rzayev's murder strongly suggest
a professional operation and careful preparation. Rzayev's
Ministry of Defense vehicle picked him up at about 0800 local
11 February. Rzayev and his driver were the only ones in the
vehicle because his adjutant, an air force captain, had been
called away to another duty (Note: Embassy heard this account
from an OSCE contact who employs a close associate of the
adjutant. End Note.) After traveling about 500 yards the
driver stopped, as was his occasional habit, to throw
something away in a trash dumpster on the side of the street.
While the vehicle was stopped, a single assailant fired into
the vehicle, hitting Rzayev in the back of the head. Rzayev
died at the central military hospital shortly thereafter.
(Note: A different account had Rzayev being shot while
walking to his car that was parked 500 yards down the street
from his building. End Note.)


3. (C) Rzayev was buried within hours of his death, and
sources within and close to the police indicated that there
was not time to perform an autopsy and it is not known
whether the bullet was extracted.


Strange Funeral, Strange Coincidences
--------------


4. (C) Rzayev's funeral was a hurried, unusual affair at
which prominent figures were conspicuous by their absence.
No government ministers were able to attend, and even
Rzayev's friends failed to come. General Vahid Akhundov, for
example, the security chief of the presidential apparat, was
a close friend of Rzayev and from the same region as the
deceased General and notably did not attend.


5. (C) The murder was exquisitely timed -- President Aliyev
and the key ministers of defense and national security and
the Procurator-General were all traveling at the time.
Aliyev cut his visit to Kuwait short to return to Baku but
the three ministers were not back in time to attend his
hastily convened Cabinet meeting.


6. (C) All of these factors suggest detailed planning and
extensive preparation. Additionally, we note that the murder
took place in one of the most secure neighborhoods of Baku -
near, in fact, to the building where the Minister of National
Security lives. This suggests strongly that not only did the
planners of this crime think of everything - distracting the
adjutant, co-opting the driver (if the first version in
paragraph 2 is correct),defeating or arranging the lifting
of probable heavy surveillance of the street, burying the
body immediately and advance knowledge (or orchestration) of
the simultaneous absence of the key government leaders - they
also had the manpower, influence and perhaps money to put all
of these moving parts in play.


Whodunit??
--------------


7. (C) Baku is absolutely rife with speculation as to who

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might be responsible. Some commentators, such as the Zerkalo
(Ayna) newspaper's well-respected Rauf Mirkadirov, suggest
that Russia might be behind the murder, attempting to
destabilize Azerbaijan. He suggested that the murder may be
a way to focus Azerbaijan inwardly on a scandalous crime in
order to distract the country from widely-believed
allegations that Moscow has been transferring weapons to
Armenia. (Comment: While Russian special services could
undoubtedly organize something like this, no specific
evidence points to this and Russia's motive for going after
Rzayev would be unclear. Without anything more to base this
on, we find the Russia theory hard to substantiate at this
point. End Comment.)


8. (C) A second possibility is that Rzayev met his end
through a shady business deal gone bad. Some diplomatic
contacts suggested that Rzayev's murder was the result of the
wrong company being shut out of a major acquisition by the
air force. Also, in 2004 Rzayev was dogged by rumors that he
was using air force assets for private gain. These theories
are also hard to substantiate due to their lack of
specificity and because they fail to explain the strange
coincidences described above.


9. (C) A final possibility, which seems on balance to be the
most likely explanation, is that the crime was orchestrated
from within the government at a very high level, and the real
target is the reputation or authority of President Aliyev.
Only someone with access to high-level officials and their
schedules could have worked out the plan and timing for this
attack. It also appears that at some level Ministry of
National Security (MNS) surveillance was circumvented,
co-opted or defeated. The orchestration of Rzayev's quick
burial without an autopsy also would have to involve the
subornation of several officials, all of which suggests a
perpetrator from within the government.


10. (C) Much speculation naturally centers on the Minister
for Emergency Situations, Kemaladdin Heydarov, one of the few
people in government whose reputation is questionable enough
that he would widely be considered a suspect. Newspaper
reports suggested that an incident in early December
involving a helicopter carrying Heydarov motivated him to
kill Rzayev. No concrete evidence supporting this allegation
has emerged. However, Rzayev's closeness to the President
would make him an inviting target for anyone in government
who has an interest in making it appear that Ilham Aliyev is
not fully in control of the country. As the referendum on
removing presidential term limits approaches, potential
rivals may feel the need to sow doubt about Ilham's control
now, before it is too late. For his part, President Aliyev
has vowed publicly to solve the crime and thus has placed
some of his own prestige on the line in response.


11. (C) Comment: This murder has generated a storm of wild,
speculative commentary and taken Baku fully by surprise. It
is far too early to identify a culprit and a wide range of
theories remain plausible. With the limited information
available we would cautiously judge that the killing may well
have been organized from within the government. If correct,
this would represent a stark rebuttal to President Aliyev's
claim that his leadership brings stability, normalcy and
development to Azerbaijan. His reaction to this case will
tell us much about the strength of his grip on Azerbaijan's
political life.
DERSE