IRAQIS STILL THIRSTY FOR TURKISH WATER AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000931

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2019
TAGS: PREL ECON MOPS TU IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQIS STILL THIRSTY FOR TURKISH WATER AFTER
TURKISH PRESIDENT,S VISIT TO BAGHDAD

REF: A. ANKARA 460

B. BAGHDAD 847

Classified By: Acting Political-Military Counselor Philip Kosnett for r
easons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: GoI contacts are pleased with Turkish
President Gul,s visit to Iraq last week. They described a
trust and warmth between the two countries not known for
years. However, differences remain over Iraq,s desire for
an increased flow of water from the Tigris and Euphrates. In
the absence of game-changing political commitment, we expect
no significant new agreements on water among Turkey, Iraq and
Syria in the next few years. End Summary.


2. (C) Contacts in the MFA and the Ministry of State for
National Security Affairs (MSNSA) echoed Turkish reports (ref
A) report that Gul,s visit was a success; and that GoI
leadership and staff are tremendously pleased with the
results and reported positive dynamics. MFA Turkey desk
officer Said Murad spoke of Gul,s trustworthiness and said
that because the GoI feels comfortable working with Gul, the
two countries have a strong future. MSNSA ministerial
advisor Haidar Dusche described a relaxed, environment
during the meetings.


3. (C) While contacts spoke of positive outcomes of the
meetings, including an economic memorandum of understanding
that will quadruple trade between Iraq and Turkey from $5 to
$20 billion over the next four years, the issue of immediate
importance was water. Although media reported that Gul
agreed to double water resources available to Iraq, the
Turkish Consul General in Mosul who attended every meeting
with Gul denied these reports to Agriculture Counselor.


4. (SBU) GOI officials remain deeply concerned about Iraq,s
dwindling water resources. According to Embassy analysis,
Iraq is in its second year of drought, arable land is
disappearing at the rate of 5 percent annually, and strategic
reserves of water are mostly depleted. While Turkey has
little ability to control water flow on the Tigris with only
three dams, it has significant control over the Euphrates
with 22 dams. A formal 1987 water-sharing pact signed by
Turkey and Syria states that Turkey will provide 500 cubic
meters per second of water on the Euphrates to Syria. In
1990, Iraq and Syria signed a bilateral agreement sharing
Euphrates water with 42 percent going to Syria, 58 percent to
Iraq.


5. (C) A trilateral Turkey-Iraq-Syria committee on water has
been meeting since 2006. At the technical level, progress
has been slow, as technical experts cannot agree on the data.
As scientists and senior government officials continue to
collaborate and build trust, Embassy Baghdad,s water
resources expert expects a new agreement may be drafted in
the next three to five years.


6. (C) For now, water increases will depend on high-level
diplomacy. In March 2009, Iraqi President Talabani attended
the Fifth World Water Forum (WWF) and asked Turkish officials
for more water, according to press accounts. PM Maliki
confirmed to Charge d,Affaires that water issues were
discussed during Gul,s visit (ref B). Short of a formal
agreement, Iraqi water resource officials told us that the
GOT has agreed to help as much as possible. Whether a
coincidence or not, water flow on the Tigris improved in week
after Gul,s visit.


7. (C) MFA,s Murad stated that it,s easy for Turkey to
make promises, when there,s plenty of water from snowmelt
and spring rains but the true test will come in the heat of
summer. He also cautioned that Syria could claim any extra
Qsummer. He also cautioned that Syria could claim any extra
water for itself and speculated that in the future, Turkey
may offer water in exchange for GoI action against the PKK or
increased oil or gas resources.


8. (C) Comment: In the absence of game-changing political
commitment, we expect no significant new agreements on water
among Turkey, Iraq and Syria in the next few years. Before a
new agreement can be reached, trust and transparency among
the three countries must improve. Political will is not the
only variable: scientists must come to agree on the data and
the scope of the problem, as well as viable solutions. Even
if Iraq wins marginal increases in water from Turkey thanks
to improving bilateral relations, continuing drought would
leave Iraq,s water situation precarious. End Comment.
BUTENIS