NINEWA: IHEC SAYS IDP VOTING MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000092

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA: IHEC SAYS IDP VOTING MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS

Classified By: PMIN Robert Ford. Reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message.


1. (C) Summary: The Ninewa Independent High Electoral
Commission (IHEC) representative, Abdel Khaleq al-Dabbagh,
said he foresees Election Day complications, including
possible voting disruptions, due to unresolved issues
surrounding Ninewa IDPs who now reside in the KRG. Dabbagh
claimed that Ninewa IDPs currently living in the KRG could,
in theory, vote in both KRG IDP voting centers and their
regular voting centers in Ninewa. Dabbagh explained also
that tens of thousands of IDPs in the KRG will not be able to
vote because they did not register in time. Dabbagh said
that he feared many of these Saddam-era IDPs would show up at
Ninewa voting stations on election day and correctly be
refused an opportunity to vote because their names are not on
the voters list, possibly leading to violent confrontations.
Dabbagh feared the Kurdish parties may use this problem to
discredit elections. Dabbagh also detailed the IHEC's
procedures for dealing with complaints of voter intimidation
and its plan for voter education. End summary.

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IDP VOTING
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2. (C) On January 8, PMIN Ford met with the Governorate
Electoral Officer (GEO) Dabbagh to discuss election
preparations in Ninewa. Dabbagh said there were two
outstanding issues related to IDP voting. First, Dabbagh
said that there were 298,000 IDPs who theoretically could
vote in both Ninewa and the KRG at IDP voting centers.
(Note: There are, however, a number of safeguards that would
prevent double voting, including a province-wide curfew and
the placing of indelible ink on the voters' fingers.)
According to Dabbagh, IDPs who fled to the KRG from Ninewa,
and subsequently registered with the Ministry of Migration
and Displaces Persons were added to the voters roll at IDP
voting centers in the KRG. Dabbagh also said that some of
those IDPs still have ration (Public Distribution System -
PDS) cards that list them as Ninewa residents. The voters
roll in Ninewa is compiled from the PDS records of the
Ministry of Trade. According to Dabbagh, the two government
agencies have not coordinated to eliminate instances of the
same person appearing on voter's rolls at two voting
stations.


3. (C) Dabbagh brought up a second IDP issue that he feared
would lead to complications on Election Day. During Saddam
Hussein's reign nearly 120,000 families were forcibly removed
from Ninewa to Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah in the KRG,
according to Dabbagh. Dabbagh said that many of those who
were displaced by Saddam want to return to Ninewa to vote but
had not registered last year. (Note: In addition, the
120,000 families could not register with the Ministry of
Migration because they were displaced before 2003. On
December 18, 2008 the Kurdish-controlled Ninewa Provincial
Council voted on a resolution to delay elections until an
accommodation could be made for the 120,000 families to vote.
That resolution has been ignored by election authorities.)
Dabbagh said that he feared many of the Saddam-era IDPs would
show up at voting stations on election day and correctly be
refused an opportunity to vote because their names are not on
the voters list, possibly leading to violent confrontations.
Moreover, Dabbagh argued, Kurdish parties could use media
images of voters being turned away from polling places as a
way to discredit elections. PMIN pointed out to Dabbagh that
Qway to discredit elections. PMIN pointed out to Dabbagh that
it is important for IHEC to take the initiative to ensure
that ineligible voters do not vote on Election Day. The
utility of election lists was to ensure only those who
register can vote. He said the IHEC could update the lists
after the provincial election.

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VOTER INTIMIDATION
--------------


4. (C) Dabbagh explained that his office passes reports of
violence against candidates to the police and security
services. The GEO could do little else as it does not have
investigative or law enforcement authority, Dabbagh said. If
the local security authorities determine that a local
political entity engaged in serious, illegal pressure against
a competing political entity, Dabbagh is to forward the file
to IHEC in Baghdad for final adjudication. So far he has not
forwarded any such cases. Dabbagh said that his office had
so far received a few complaints of unidentified individuals
tearing down election posters. Dabbagh said that all the
political entities had been made aware of the penalties of
such actions. Dabbagh added that it was difficult to

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prosecute such cases, however, because in many cases
political parties pay children to tear down elections
posters. (The parties cynically think the police will not
arrest children who engage in this illegal behavior, he
claimed.) PMIN urged Dabbagh to ensure political party
complaints are received expeditiously and that local security
authorities study them seriously too.

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VOTER EDUCATION
--------------


5. (C) According to Dabbagh, the IHEC had allocated IRD 125
million to conduct voter education, including
election-related Public Service Announcements (PSAs).
Dabbagh said that the IHEC plans to run PSAs during the last
two weeks preceding elections. Explaining the new ballot
would be a priority for the IHEC in its voter outreach
efforts, according to Dabbagh.


6. (C) Comment: Dabbagh is generally considered an honest
broker by most political actors in the province. As such,
his concerns about IDP voting becoming a problem on Election
Day should be taken seriously. Dabbagh's role as a regional
implementer, however, prevents him from taking the necessary
corrective steps at the policy level. Closing the provincial
borders should at least reduce the number of Kurdish IDPs who
might think of voting once in Dohuk or Erbil and then voting
again in Ninewa. (The inked fingers should also help,
although there is a cottage industry in Iraq advising how to
get the ink off expeditiously.) The issue of the Kurdish
IDPs who never registered at all is a different one that
merits more attention from both IHEC and the Kurdish
political parties in advance of the next elections to be
held, in theory, in counties and municipalities in summer

2009.


CROCKER