Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD799
2009-03-23 14:20:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

DIWANIYAH: COALITION-BUILDING REMAINS STYMIED,

Tags:  PGOV IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7239
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0799/01 0821420
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231420Z MAR 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2357
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000799 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH: COALITION-BUILDING REMAINS STYMIED,
EXPECTATIONS FOR NEXT PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT HIGH

REF: BAGHDAD 520

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Michael Klecheski for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

This is a PRT Diwaniyah reporting cable.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000799

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2019
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: DIWANIYAH: COALITION-BUILDING REMAINS STYMIED,
EXPECTATIONS FOR NEXT PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT HIGH

REF: BAGHDAD 520

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Michael Klecheski for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

This is a PRT Diwaniyah reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: Impatience appears to be growing that
Diwaniyah's new Provincial Council (PC) has not been seated.
The composition of the eventual ruling coalition and the
identity of the new governor remain highly uncertain due to a
lack of clear signals from Baghdad, coupled with continued
infighting within the winning State of Law election list.
While this transition period has in no way paralyzed the
current provincial government, it has left directors-general
cautious about new initiatives. On the good side, civil
society activists remain hopeful that the new provincial
authorities, whoever they turn out to be, will prove easier
to deal with than the incumbents. End Summary.

Impatience That PC Not Yet Seated
--------------


2. (SBU) Over the past week, we have seen mounting signs of
impatience that the new PC has yet to be seated. This is
most evident in the provincial media, which are quoting the
complaints of a growing number of politicians of various
stripes that the election results have yet to be certified.
Previously, politicians both in public and private had
criticized the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC)
for allowing fraud; several blamed Diwaniyah's Governorate
Electorate Office (GEO) for acting in the interests of ISCI,
which they claimed controls that office. Now these charges
have largely been replaced by attacks on IHEC for its failure
to certify the election results.


3. (C) In a March 19 meeting with BG Smith, our brigade
colleagues and the PRT, outgoing Governor Khudari (ISCI)
suggested that he was eager to begin a smooth transition.
While he was not required immediately to call the new PC into
session once the results have been certified, Khudari said he
would act quickly, calling a session within no more than a
few days of certification.

A Tough Slog on Coalition-Building
--------------


4. (C) Despite the sense of urgency to get down to work, it
remains highly unclear which forces will unite into a ruling
coalition and who will be chosen as PC chairman and governor.
Governor Khudari reported that negotiations among the

parties are proving difficult, although there is a broad
commitment to include as many of them as possible in the
ruling coalition (with the exception of ISCI). Ex-Prime
Minister Ja'afari's National Reform Trend (three seats),Ayad
Allawi's Iraqi National List (three),the Sadrist Tayar
al-Ahrar (two),Fadhilah (two),and the local Islamic Loyalty
Party (two) are all still discussing possible alliances with
State of Law/Da'wa, which holds 11 of the 28 seats. Sheikh
Hussein Sha'alan, a CoR member who is arguably the province's
most influential and politically informed sheikh, told us on
March 21 that no decision had been made on coalition-building
or executive positions. This indecision is the result of
serious infighting within the State of Law list, which won
the most votes in the election, and from a lack of definitive
guidance from the Prime Minister's office in Baghdad. None
of the various components making up State of Law is backing
off from seeking the governorship, we were told.


5. (C) Several contacts have speculated that the
governorship will ultimately go to Da'wa Central (Islamic
Da'wa),primarily because PM Maliki wants "his own man"
running the province ahead of national elections in December.
If Maliki's faction of Da'wa gets the governorship,
Q If Maliki's faction of Da'wa gets the governorship,
provincial party head Salim Hussein Alwan and deputy party
head Fadel Mawat -- who is also chief of the Tribal Support
Council -- are still considered the two leading candidates
(reftel). In Sheikh Sha'alan's view, Mawat, though a
favorite of many sheikhs, has a shady past that makes his
selection unlikely.


6. (C) Talk of choosing an independent as the next governor
still persists, though it has subsided somewhat. Among the
independents mentioned is retired General Abdulameer Obais,
who fled Iraq in 1991, returning a few years ago to become a
successful businessman. Taking the initiative to meet with
us, perhaps in hope of gaining some implied support from the
PRT, Obais claimed having been told by Maliki that an
independent governor would be best for the province. Obais
told us he believes he can gain the governorship, and that he
would focus on attracting investors, and on reconstruction
and anti-corruption measures as priorities of his

BAGHDAD 00000799 002 OF 002


administration. We have no way of judging if Obais has much
chance of becoming governor, although we have heard other
sources mention him as a possibility; several sheikhs with
whom we spoke clearly dislike him, describing him as an
untrustworthy opportunist.

Challenges of the Transition
--------------


7. (C) The current transition period has in no way paralyzed
the incumbent provincial administration, but it has had a
negative effect. Khudari, though well aware that his time in
office is drawing to a close, remains relatively active and
engaged. One of his chief deputies, who had hoped to stay on
in the next administration, also remains engaged but has sent
out feelers for employment in Baghdad. We have seen the most
impact on ministerial directors-general, at least some of
whom are uncertain of keeping their jobs and obviously
fearful of taking any steps that might invoke the ire of the
next administration.


8. (C) For the PRT, this has been most evident in our
inability to hold a session of the Agricultural Advisory
Council; though Governor Khudari finally approved its
establishment shortly before the election, the relevant DGs
have indicated they want to hold off on getting it under way
until they get approval from the next governor. Meanwhile,
we hear rumors that the DG of Agriculture is among several
who, being seen as closely tied to ISCI, may be replaced when
a new governor assumes office.

Hopefulness among Independent Activists
--------------


9. (C) For civil society activists with whom we have met
over the past few weeks, the prospect of a new governor and
PC to replace the incumbents remains highly encouraging, even
if the pace of choosing them is discouragingly slow. In
several meetings, we heard the same reprise: that the current
ISCI government obstructed the growth of independent civil
society and that the new provincial administration, whoever
ends up heading it, can only be an improvement. Our
interlocutors identified several people within the next PC
who have proven themselves progressive on human rights and
women's issues. Women activists said that two of the next
PC's six women would prove important allies; while there
might be some attempts to marginalize them because they were
women, neither of the two would allow that to happen.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) The delay in seating the new PC has not marred the
image of electoral democracy in the province, but it has
begun to elicit growing impatience and suspicion that the
election was conducted badly and/or that the outcome may yet
be manipulated by Baghdad. This could be exacerbated if the
new PC, once it is seated, starts off by wrangling about the
selection of a governor rather than selecting someone and
quickly turning to activity seen as directly addressing such
issues as essential services and the water shortage. End
comment.
BUTENIS