KURDISH PRESS IN POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000788

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/14/2024
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: KURDISH PRESS IN POLITICAL NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 623

B. BAGHDAD 514

C. 08 BAGHDAD 3836

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan's (PUK)
internal power-sharing negotiations (Ref A, B, C) have
generated a plethora of wildly inconsistent press reports
about upcoming KRG elections as well as the negotiations
themselves. Parliamentary recess combined with Kurdish New
Year's and leadership travel schedules have most Kurdish
politicians outside Baghdad and Iraq, unable to confirm or
deny these rumors. Knowing who owns these press outlets, and
their political links, however, provides a glimpse into how
Kurdish politicians use disinformation to influence political
negotiations. While the Kurdish print press is often
inaccurate and most newspapers have political patrons, the
end result is a clash of political opinions and criticism of
politicians from all sides that acts as some counter to the
duolithic power of the KDP and PUK. End Summary.

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DON'T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ
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2. (SBU) The press has been relentless in their coverage of
PUK power negotiations and upcoming KRG elections. On March
10, Rudaw reported that Talabani offered Nawshirwan Mustafa
six PUK seats in the upcoming elections. On March 11,
Rozhnama reported that KDP's Election Chief Jafaar Ibrahim
announced that KDP and PUK would field separate open
candidate lists. On March 15, Hawlati newspaper reported that
former KDP Politburo Secretary Jawhar Namiq intends to field
a independent list for the upcoming KRG elections and then
form an alliance with Nawshirwan Mutafa's list. That same
day, Lvin magazine printed that the Iranain government is not
happy about former PUK Deputy General Secretary Nawshirwan
Mustafa's decision to field an independent list because it
may harm Iran's interests. None of these stories are true,
according to our Kurdish contacts.

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WHERE HAVE ALL THE KURDS GONE?
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3. (C) Getting information about internal Kurdish political
deliberations has become noticeably more difficult.
Temporarily, both PUK and KDP parliamentarians made use of
their month vacation and flew north to celebrate Kurdish New
Year "NawRuz." PUK leaders Barham Saleh and Jalal Talabani
are finally back in Baghdad, at least temporarily but they
often go back and forth to Sulaymania to contain the PUK
leadership crisis. On the KDP side, Masoud Barzani has been
on a month-long European tour. On a more permanent basis,
Senior KDP Representative Rowsch Shaways has been
recuperating from surgery in Germany for over five months and
KRG Representative Dilshad Miran was permanently recalled to
Erbil (after a sex scandal) and replaced by Article 140
Minister Mohamed Ishan who spends most of his time in Erbil
and Kirkuk. Cell phones are switched off and the e-mails
remain unanswered. Only Foreign Minister Zebari could
reasonably enunciate KDP thinking, and he is frequently out
of Baghdad and has terrible relations with the Prime Minister
in any case.

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POLITICAL TACTICS
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4. (C) Having spent days tracking politicians down to
dispel above press claims, editor of Baghdad-based Arabic
language Kurdish newspaper, Ataahki, Jalil al-Dalany on March
16 asserted to us that it is commonplace for Kurdish
politicians to make use of the media to evoke speculation and
Qpoliticians to make use of the media to evoke speculation and
rumor about opponents. He claimed that Nawshirwan purposely
leaked false information about his negotiations with Talabani
to make Talabani appear unyielding and then disadvantaged.
On March 15, Talabani's Advisor Aram Yarwessi told PolOff
that, "In Kurdish politics everything is negotiable. It's
like a carpet sale. You need to keep your opponent
distracted (with pressure from the press and some lemon tea),
start big, and take your time so you can end exactly where
you want." Yarwessi elaborated that earlier press stories of
VP Korat Rasoul's resignation from PUK due to a loss of faith
in Talabani put Kosrat on the defensive and forced him to
come to the aid of Talabani against Nawshirwan. Talabani's
designating Kosrat to negotiate with Nawshirwan, Yarwessi
explained, keeps Talabani's two opponents distracted with
each other.

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5. (C) Not all press stories are false. The March 15
edition of Talabani's Kurdistani Nwe truthfully reported that
Talabani met with a KDP delegation to discuss the PUK-KDP
accord. Indeed KDP Politburo Head Fadhil Merani confirmed to
RRTOff that the meeting had taken place, the PUK-KDP accord
would remain intact and any seats that Nawshirwan wins would
be a subset of PUK's. PUK's Aso newspaper report that Jalal
Talabani said he would not seek re-election as Iraq's
president but would continue as PUK General Secretary were
confirmed by PUK KRG Public Relations Officer Sadi Pire on
March 17. Talabani's statement that he may not seek
re-election works for Talabani five ways. According to Pire,
by showing this card early, Talabani finds out exactly who
inside the PUK seeks the presidency. In addition, it quells
the ambitions of those PUK leaders who are actively
maneuvering to become the next PUK General Secretary. It may
also reveal if the Sunni Arabs are serious about taking the
Iraqi Presidency and may open up early negotiations on
ministries they might be willing to trade. It can also work
like a public poll, allowing time for the public to rally
behind his candidacy. In 2005, Talabani issued a similar
statement. Popular debate ensued. Bowing to "public demand,"
at the time, Talabani could not refuse and re-stated his
candidacy.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) This latest spate of Kurdish press stories reveal how
complex Kurdish political negotiations can be. At a time of
heightened Arab-Kurd tensions, it also reveals how few Kurds
there are in Baghdad, especially KDP Kurds who can represent
KRG President Masoud Barzani in negotiations with Maliki and
the central government.

BUTENIS