RRT ERBIL: KRG ELECTIONS PREVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000642

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: KRG ELECTIONS PREVIEW

REF: A. A. 08 BAGHDAD 4078

B. B. BAGHDAD 476

Classified By: RRT Leader Lucy Tamlyn; reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) cable.


1. (C) SUMMARY: Key issues for the Kurdistan regional
parliamentary elections remain undecided, and the President
has yet to sign an important amendment to the election law.
Nonetheless, the KDP and PUK have already announced the
details of post-elections power-sharing, including swapping
the posts of Prime Minister (currently KDP) and Speaker of
the House (currently PUK) between the two parties. The
decision to use closed lists for the elections has provoked
some press criticism. Although smaller political parties and
independent political figures support open lists, the KRG
leadership sees closed lists as essential for maintaining
control of the PUK/KDP coalition, and ensuring that the
Kurdistan Region speaks with one voice to Baghdad. A
coalition of Islamic and other smaller political parties, and
one break-away PUK list are all under pressure to join the
coalition rather than run independently. END SUMMARY.

PRESIDENT BARZANI SENDS THE ELECTION LAW BACK TO PARLIAMENT
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2. (SBU) The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) announced
that parliamentary elections should be held on May 19, a date
of special significance, as this was the date of the first
elections in 1992 in the autonomous region. However, the
bill naming the date has yet to be signed into law by
President Barzani. RRT Team Leader was informed by Kurdistan
National Assembly (KNA) Speaker Adnan Mufti on March 1 that
the President sent the bill back to the KNA parliament with
four issues: 1) the President felt that the Iraqi
constitution gave the region the right to supervise its own
elections, and therefore asked that the
Kurdistan Regional Elections Office (KREO) organize the
elections rather than IHEC; 2) a question on the choice of
the Arabic word used to describe a political entity, which
effectively defines who would be eligible to run on a list
(all KNA laws are drafted in Arabic); 3) a request to make it
possible for Iraqi Kurds outside of Iraq to vote and 4) a
request that the Kurdistan High Judicial Council, rather than
a federal body, resolve election challenges

REVISED BILL EXPECTED SHORTLY
--------------

3. (SBU) Mufti was confident that with these changes the bill
would be signed by the President (he has in fact only one
chance to reject a bill) and that elections would continue to
be scheduled for May 19. The mandate of the current
parliament expires on June 4, 2009. To stay on track, the
President will need to call for elections to be held 60 days
before elections are to take place.


4. (C) According to Mufti, the KNA will discuss the
President's requests and send the bill back for signature
sometime this week, when he returns from Europe. Mufti said
that the KNA will explain to President Barzani that there is
no viable Kurdistan electoral commission, that supervising
elections is a federal function, and that IHEC should do it
(the elections will, in turn, be paid for from the federal
budget). As to what sort of political entities are allowed
to run, if the KNA goes with President Barzani's preference,
independent lists not associated with a political party (such
as one former PUK Deputy Secretary General Nawshirwam Mustafa
might put forward) would seem to be effectively blocked.
Out-of-country voting will not be possible to arrange at this
QOut-of-country voting will not be possible to arrange at this
late date and will not be included, according to Mufti. (He
added that out-of-country voting was simply not possible
under any circumstances.)


5. (C) On March 4, KNA Deputy Speaker Kamal Kirkuki met
with IHEC officials in Erbil. He told visiting Senior
Advisor Krajeski he is willing to allow the May 19 date to
slip to June if additional preparation time is needed.
Kirkuki welcomed the presence of international observers. He
mentioned that the KRG was still negotiating three additional
points it wants:

- ballots to be counted in the KRG not Baghdad
- joint IA/Peshmerga to provide election security, not
just IA
- the GoI to pay for these elections out of the amount
the GoI subtracts from the KRG,s 17% budget allocation for
federal functions.

OPEN VS CLOSED LISTS
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6. (C) The decision to hold elections with closed lists
continues to be contested by the Islamic parties KIU and KIG,
which have submitted a separate bill to the KNA to change the
election process to an open-list format. Speaker Mufti
argued that open lists would make it impossible to retain the
KDP-PUK coalition in its current form (i.e. a proportional
split between KDP and PUK of all seats won by that combined
slate) because the party with more popular individual
candidates could conceivably do better. He asserted that, at
this point in the Region's history, it was important to
"speak with one voice to Baghdad." Pshtiwan Sadek, Head of
the powerful KDP "2nd Branch" (an influential party office in
Erbil),told RRTOff "open lists will not work in Kurdistan.
People do not have enough education to use them, and an
open-list system needs an entire year of campaigning. If
someone does not like one of my candidates, he or she had
better vote for another list." Some Kurdish politicians
argue that open lists could dredge up KDP-PUK animosities,
risking a resumption of the KDP-PUK violence that occurred in
the 1990's, and weakening the KRG's ability to deal with
Maliki and the central government at a time of heightened
Kurd-Arab tensions. However, Jawhar Namiq, a prominent
independent politician, told Rozhnama newspaper that this
decision by the KDP and PUK proved they were afraid of being
punished at the polls by the people of the Kurdistan Region,
whom he characterized as angry and dissatisfied.

CURRENT KNA MAKEUP
--------------


7. (U) The 111-member parliament is dominated by the KDP/PUK
coalition, which includes the PUK, the KDP and a raft of
smaller parties. The two main political parties control 80
seats, with the KDP holding 42 and the PUK 38. The Islamic
Union of Kurdistan (KIU) has nine seats and the Kurdistan
Islamic Group (KIG) six. Turcomen and Assyrians each have
four Seats. Communists have three; the Kurdistan Socialist
Democratic Party (KSDP) has two; and the three remaining
parties have one seat each: Kurdistan Toilers' Party,
Kurdistan Laborers' and Toilers' Party, and the Kurdistan
Democratic National Union. With the exception of the
Kurdistan Islamic Union and the Kurdistan Toilers' party, all
remaining parties ran on the list known as the Kurdistan
National Democratic List for the 2005 parliamentary elections.

BREAK-AWAY PARTIES
--------------


8. (U) On January 10, four minor opposition parties,
(Kurdistan Islamic Union, Kurdistan Islamic Group, Kurdistan
Toilers' Party and Kurdistan Socialist Democratic Party)
stated that they would run as an opposition list against the
KDP/PUK Coalition and released a report criticizing the
performance of the KRG. The parties call for the merger of
dual-party ministries; passage of the Kurdistan constitution
and increased protection for human rights. They also call
for a reduction in political party influence in government
operations; a reduction in centralization and an increase in
powers granted at the local level.


9. (SBU) Following the announcement, the press reported that
President Talabani met with KIG Head Ali Bapir and KIU Head
Salahaddin Bahaddin to asked them to tone down the rhetoric
and to convince them not to run as a bloc. According to KIU
Head Bahaddin, Talabani also met privately with the
Secretaries General of both the KDSP and KTP parties as well.
RRT contacts see a "divide and conquer strategy," with the
secular parties being encouraged not to align with the
Qsecular parties being encouraged not to align with the
Islamic parties, and the Islamic parties being encouraged
back to the fold. Both the KIU and KIG Heads have told
RRTOff recently that the four-party bloc had yet to decide
whether it will run as one list, as independent parties, or
grouped with other parties. As reported reftel B, former PUK
Deputy Secretary General Nawshirwan Mustafa has also
announced that he will create a separate list, thereby
threatening to draw votes away from the PUK and challenging
the KDP/PUK agreement.

PUK/KDP POWER SHARING AGREEMENT
--------------


10. (C) Although the elections have not yet taken place, the
KDP and PUK announced on February 2 that the Prime Minister
position would fall to the PUK, and the Speaker position to
the KDP. (Comment: The parties had decided on the same
arrangement for the 2005 elections, but had problems
selecting suitable candidates to fill the slots. We do not
know whether the switch will come to pass in 2009. Speaker
Adnan Mufti informed RRT Team Leader that in any event he did
not intend to continue as speaker. End

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comment).

NO ACTION ON THE CONSTITUTION OR KRG PROVINCIAL POWERS LAW
--------------

11. (SBU) Our contacts in the Assembly do not believe
provincial elections in the KRG or the referendum on the KRG
constitution will be held simultaneously with parliamentary
elections. Speaker Mufti explained that the disputed
territories must be resolved before the constitutional
referendum, so that all citizens may participate. Although
drafting concluded in October 2008, there is still debate as
to whether the President should be elected by popular vote
(as reflected in the current draft) or by the Parliament.
The Provincial Powers law (reftel A) is also still under
discussion. According to RRT contacts in the KNA, the lack
of movement on the bill reflects a reluctance to redistribute
power from the central KRG government to local districts.
Provincial officials and the KNA want a further devolution of
authority, while the Council of Ministers wants to keep power
centralized. Parliamentarian Arez Abdullah informed RRTOff
that irreconcilable conflicts between the KDP and PUK
versions had ultimately shelved discussion of the law.

COMMENT
--------------

13. (C) There are many questions still about electionsin
the Kurdish Region, including the exact timing and who will
administer them. The federal election commission, IHEC, is
hardly a perfect institution, but it has far more
institutional experience than a nascent Kurdish election
administration and it might be able to offer genuinely useful
counsel and management advice. The use of closed lists and
the still-to-be-determined definition of rules regarding who
may run for the election shows the extent to which the
politics of the Kurdistan Region continue to be dominated by
the PUK/KDP coalition, even as its popularity is challenged
and political rivals try to open up the system.
International support might help give voters a genuine
choice, but the heavy control reflex of the two dominant
parties, the PUK and KDP, will make leveraging any genuine
opening very difficult. End comment.

BUTENIS