PRT NINEWA: AL-HADBA ALLIANCE ON SHEIKHY GROUND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000622

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2024
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PTER IZ
SUBJECT: PRT NINEWA: AL-HADBA ALLIANCE ON SHEIKHY GROUND

Classified By: Ninewa PRT Leader Alex Laskaris for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message.


1. (C) Summary. Riding high in the wake of the Sunni Arabs'
Al-Hadba list dominance in the provincial elections, Iraqi
Justice and Reform Movement Party Founder Sheikh Abdullah
Hemdi Ajil al-Yawar is now distancing himself from Al-Hadba
leader Athiel al-Najaifi and presenting himself as the real
power broker in Ninewa. Sheikh Abdullah also forcefully
advocated for the immediate departure of Pesh merga and
Assayesh from Ninewa, asserting that this was the first step
to resolve growing Arab-Kurdish tensions. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On March 5, Senior Advisor for Northern Iraq (S/A)
Tom Krajeski and Multi-National Division-North Commander
(MND-N) Major General Robert Caslen met with Sheikh Abdullah,
the acting paramount Sheikh of the Shammari Confederation in
Northern Iraq. The meeting took place at the Sheikh's estate
in the sub-district of Rabia.

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Al-HADBA vs. the SHEIKH
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3. (C) Sheikh Abdullah began the luncheon by attributing
Al-Hadba's success in the provincial elections to himself.
He cited his good relationship with the people and alleged
that they perceive him as a patriot and not a politician. He
distanced himself from Al-Hadba's Athiel al-Najaifi by
discerning there is a difference between the Al-Hadba list
and the Al-Hadba movement. Sheikh Abdullah ordered two of
his staff to set up a flat screen television to show a DVD of
a pre-election gathering of over 1,000 sheikhs on his estate.
He then fast-forwarded through al-Najaifi's speech and
dismissively pointed out Al-Hadba's candidates who lost the
elections. He used the remote control to slow the tape to
proudly indicate his winning candidates. According to Sheikh
Abdullah, ten of the winning candidates on the Al-Hadba list
are personally loyal to him. He also claimed that he
controls an addition six Provincial Council (PC) seats
claiming the three Islamic Party of Iraq (IIP)
representatives and the winners of the Christian, Shebak and
Yezidi minority seats. He inferred that Athiel al-Najaifi's
support came from two seats. Sheikh Abdullah said that the
people of Ninewa embraced Al-Hadba's pledge to bring justice
and security to the province, attributing his candidates with
that primary focus.


4. (C) The Sheikh gave a civil, if unenthusiastic,
endorsement of Al-Hadba party leader Athiel al-Najaifi to
serve as the next Provincial Governor. In exchange for
supporting al-Najaifi's governorship, Sheikh Abdullah
believes he has enough clout to choose the PC Chairman and
perhaps the Vice Governor. He down-played the possibility of
al-Hadba Sunni Arab aligned Kurd Dildar Zebari serving in
either position since it would be perceived as an insult to
the Barzani clan. The Sheikh claimed that many people seek
his support for these positions, however, he is playing his
cards close to his robe and will not reveal whom he will back.

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NINEWA'S CHALLENGES
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5. (C) Sheikh Abdullah said that Ninewa's most imminent
challenge is the resolution of the simmering Arab-Kurd
tensions, which he described as a "festering wound." The
quickest resolution to the tension, according to Sheikh
Abdullah, is the immediate expulsion of the Pesh merga from
all territories south of the March 2003 Transitional
Administrative Law (TAL) line, claiming that their presence
QAdministrative Law (TAL) line, claiming that their presence
is unconstitutional. He suggested that security could be
preserved by replacing the Pesh merga with the Iraqi Army
(IA) and national police (ISF),who are not from Ninewa and
therefore are not caught up in ethno-sectarian rivalries. He
added that the people need to recognize the role of the Iraqi
Army and national police, working with the properly-elected
PC, to provide security and protect their rights. (Note.
Sheikh Abdullah said he is not anti-Kurd, describing how he
helped shelter Kurds during Saddam's reign. End Note)


6. (C) Equally, if not more, important, according to Sheikh
Abdullah, is the immediate removal of all Assayesh (Kurdish
secret police) from Ninewa. Sheikh Abdullah alleged that the
Assayesh behave in much the same way as Saddam's intelligence
service did prior to 2003. Assayesh's behavior was not only
intimidating the people of Ninewa but also driving otherwise
neutral Sunni Arabs into the hands of al-Qaeda, according to
Sheikh Abdullah.

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THE ROAD AHEAD
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7. (C) Sheikh Abdullah believes that Ninewa's future success,
and all the provinces in Iraq, is to develop a positive
working relationship with the central government in Baghdad
and to put an Iraqi identity above any ethno-sectarian
divisions. He noted how religious and ethnic parties didn't
fare so well in the elections and what is needed going
forward is a multi-cultural Iraqi Party. The time for war
and division is over; the GoI must take the lead and promote
social and economic development through unity, according to
Sheikh Abdullah.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) At this most recent meeting, Sheikh Abdullah's
repeated stance on the need for the Pesh merga to leave
Ninewa grew more forceful and urgent. Likewise, whereas he
had initially expressed some ambivalence on the proclivity of
the central government to work with the new provincial
government, he now offers his full support to the GoI, IA and
ISF. Sheikh Abdullah has maneuvered himself into a position
of considerable influence within the new provincial
government while he continues to present himself as a friend
of Coalition Forces (CF). Abdullah's views notwithstanding,
al-Najaifi was the leading vote-getter in the January 31
elections, receiving 263,000 votes. In the words, over half
of al-Hadba voters voted for Athiel personally, not the list.
By way of comparison, that was 14 times more than the second
place finisher, a candidate on the Kurdish list. The
internal dynamics with Al-Hadba will be interesting to
follow; more importantly, the Abdullah wing of the list might
temper the paleo-Ba'athist anti-CF views of others within the
gathering.
BUTENIS