A NEW SUNNI ARAB COALITION THAT CALLS ITSELF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000570

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2019
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: A NEW SUNNI ARAB COALITION THAT CALLS ITSELF
NATIONALIST

REF: 08 BAGHDAD 4007

Classified By: PolMinCouns Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 1, ex-Council of Representatives
(COR) speaker Mahmoud Mashhadani joined the leaders of three
political blocs, Saleh al-Mutlak (Iraqi Front for National
Dialogue/IFND),Abid Mutlak al-Jeboori (Iraqi Arab
Independents),and Khalaf al-Ulyan (National Dialogue
Council) to announce that they were joining forces to form a
new coalition. While the makeup of the new coalition is
currently only Sunni Arab, the group said it is open to
anyone with a similar national agenda who wants to join.
Hassan Deghan al-Janabi, also a member of al-Ulyan's group,
confirmed to us that the purpose of the new coalition in part
is to create a national secular base for the upcoming
national elections. The new coalition is also a vehicle for
Mashhadani's return to the parliament and perhaps even to the
speaker's podium, although the highly politicized
circumstances of his departure make that scenario unlikely
(reftel). END SUMMARY

A New National-Secular Coalition
--------------


2. (U) The new coalition, currently called the National
Project, brings together approximately 24 current MPs who are
from existing (Sunni Arab) parties. Although the political
leaders announced that the group is open to all ethnic and
religious sects, membership is currently exclusively Sunni
Arab. Hassan Deghan al-Janabi from the Dialog Council
informed poloff that the purpose of the new coalition was to
create a national secular base for the upcoming national
elections. He said the January 2009 provincial elections
showed that the Iraqi people were tired of sectarian and
ethnic division, and want a single Iraqi identity. The new
National Project coalition, he told poloff, responded to this
desire. Although currently using the same name as Sunni Arab
politico Saleh Mutlak's moderately successful provincial
election list, al-Janabi was not sure how long the coalition
would retain this name. He said they would reach out to
secular Shia groups to join the coalition, and specifically
referenced participants in the July 22nd group as potential
partners. (Comment: the July 22nd group's Shia were mostly
Shia Islamists from the Sadr and Fadhila parties. It is far
from certain those Shia Islamists would walk far with Sunni
Arabs like al-Janabi which is why the July 22nd group has
never been cohesive. End Comment.)

The Return of the King, or the Jester?
--------------


3. (C) When poloff asked if the purpose of the coalition was
also a rehabilitation of Mashadani, al-Janabi acknowledged
that this was the case. The Dialog Council, of which
Mashadani is a member, will seek to fill Mashadani's vacant
parliamentary seat with Mashadani himself. Al-Janabi was
unaware of any prohibitions against such an action.
Al-Janabi, although acknowledging some difficulties with the
plan, also said the NDC planned to submit Mashadani's name as
an alternate candidate to fill the Sunni Arab-designated
speaker's position. Moreover, Saleh al-Mutlak reported that
one of the goals of the new coalition was to oppose Ayad
al-Samarraie (Tawafuq/IIP) as the next parliament speaker.

Comment
--------------


4. (C) The formation of the new national secular coalition by
the three Sunni Arab parties appears to be part of an
emerging trend in which political groups are tapping into the
"national secular identity" campaign message. Hassan Deghan
al-Janabi was quite specific in identifying this as one of
the reasons for the National Project coalition. He and other
Qthe reasons for the National Project coalition. He and other
Sunni Arab leaders have told poloff that they recognize that
secular nationalism was a successful message for the top
vote-getters in the January 2009 provincial elections. It
appears that Iraqi political parties are taking lessons from
the victors.


5. (C) Given the circumstances surrounding Mashadani's
removal as speaker, and the animosity he generated from
Tawafuq, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the
Kurds, in addition to a fully cross-sectarian selection of
female MPs, his return to the speaker's chair is unlikely. A
court case in January from the Federal Court cleared the way
for Mashadani to return as a member, albeit without the very
generous pension that was negotiated as part of his
resignation agreement. Mashadani may be confident in his
ability to regain the speaker's chair, thus making the
pension moot. Alternatively, he simply may be seeking a route
back to public relevance, given that he has played little or

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no public role since his resignation.
BUTENIS