IN DIWANIYAH PROVINCE, POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000520

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: IN DIWANIYAH PROVINCE, POLITICAL
COALITION-BUILDING HAMPERED BY DA'WA INFIGHTING

REF: BAGHDAD 314

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Michael Klecheski for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

This is a PRT Diwaniyah reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: Although Da'wa, which won 11 of Diwaniyah's
28 Provincial Council (PC) seats, is in a strong political
position, infighting within that party has left the
governorship and PC chairmanship up for grabs. Under the
circumstances, coalition-building is proving a difficult,
albeit peaceful process, with current indications that the
Sadrists will join Da'wa as the core of a leadership
coalition. End summary.

Da'wa Infighting
--------------


2. (C) On the Diwaniyah political scene, the week since the
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced how
many seats each party would get as a result of the provincial
election has been dominated by infighting within Da'wa.
Ahead of that announcement, talk about the next governor had
centered on the party's leader in the province, Salim Hussein
Alwan (reftel),and he continues to be viewed as a
front-runner. Recently, however, leading sheikhs have been
telling us that Fadel Mawat, chief of the Tribal Support
Council, is also a serious contender. The two reportedly
went to Baghdad shortly after the IHEC announcement in what
proved an unsuccessful attempt to reach agreement.


3. (C) In a February 27 meeting, Hussein Ali al Sha'lan, a
Council of Representatives member with Iraqiyah ties and
arguably the province's most influential sheikh, told us that
huge differences remain within Da'wa and the State of Law
coalition. Neither of the two top contenders willing to back
off and other Da'wa party figures also hoping to get the
governorship. Meeting with us in between sessions in the
provincial capital to find common ground, Sha'lan said no
resolution is in sight for the moment. A local journalist
told us that, under the circumstances, an independent might
become governor.

Da'wa-Sadrist Alliance Likely
--------------


4. (C) According to Sheikh Sha'lan, Da'wa is likely to forge
an alliance with the Sadrists to create a majority in the PC.
For his part, Sha'lan expressed concern about allowing the
Sadrists a position of power in Diwaniyah, although he hoped
that if that proved the case, they would feel obliged to act
responsibly. Whether or not ISCI was also included in the
alliance, it was likely to get at least some leadership slot
in order to buy it off, he commented.


5. (C) Sha'lan was one of several of our contacts who said
that, despite the current problems, the next administration
would be more constructive than the current one. The
transition would cause some challenges, he noted, and the new
governor would likely remove at least some of the incumbent
Directors General, but eventually, things would stabilize
under a less religiously focused, more competent set of
officials. Several local journalists shared that view,
expressing hope that they would have more leeway to do their
work without harassment than at present. Assuming the new
governor came from Da'wa, one journalist speculated that he
would seek to be maximally effective in order to further
strengthen that party's image ahead of the upcoming series of
elections.

Complaints from Losing Entities
--------------


6. (C) Immediately following the election, we had heard
relatively few charges of fraud. Such charges subsequently
increased, however. Several sheikhs favorable to Allawi's
party, for instance, told us they had proof that their party
had been cheated out of second place in the province. (They
Qhad been cheated out of second place in the province. (They
did not identify the nature of that proof.)


7. (C) The complaints culminated in a peaceful demonstration
on February 21 by representatives of a number of parties (the
exact number is in dispute),which began at a Diwaniyah city
mosque and proceeded to Governorate Electoral Office (GEO)
headquarters. Estimates of participation ranged from 150 to
1,000 people. When we contacted Diwaniyah's GEO head that
day, he dismissed it as insignificant while relaying to us
reports that political forces in Baghdad had engineered it
for their own purposes. The demonstration has so far had no
further resonance.


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8. (C) Comment: After years of ISCI rule, Da'wa is clearly
looking forward to political dominance in Diwaniyah. The
current infighting is somewhat debilitating for the moment,
and has proven a bit of an embarrassment to the party in the
province. Who becomes the new governor and PC chair remains
entirely unclear, and Da'wa will need to form what could
prove a fairly complicated coalition. Nonetheless, we remain
hopeful that the province's next governing team will prove
appreciably easier to deal with than the current one and we
are laying the groundwork for expanded cooperation with it.
End comment.
BUTENIS