Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD504
2009-02-26 14:33:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

MAYSAN ELECTION: COALITION-BUILDING TIED TO BAGHDAD

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM IZ IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3391
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0504/01 0571433
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261433Z FEB 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1892
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000504 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IZ IR
SUBJECT: MAYSAN ELECTION: COALITION-BUILDING TIED TO BAGHDAD

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Dan Foote for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000504

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IZ IR
SUBJECT: MAYSAN ELECTION: COALITION-BUILDING TIED TO BAGHDAD

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Dan Foote for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is a Maysan PRT reporting cable.

Summary
--------------


2. (C/REL MCFI) Maysan's new 27-member Provincial Council
(PC) will be governed by four parties -- Prime Minister
Maliki's Da'wa-led State of Law, ISCI's Shahid al-Mihrab, the
Sadrist-backed Free Independent Trend, and Dr. Ja'afari's
National Reform Trend -- and will be comprised of mostly new
members. Top provincial representatives from these parties
told the PRT that negotiations were ongoing in Baghdad
between the Prime Minister and the other winning entities to
decide what shape the governing coalition will take in
Maysan, implying that local leaders will not have the final
word in deal-brokering. It has been widely reported that
Da'wa, which tied with ISCI for eight seats apiece on the new
Council, has reached out to the Sadrists, who received seven
seats. Outgoing ISCI Deputy Governor Abdul Hussein Abdul
Radha said his party would seek alliance with Dr. Ja'afari's
party, which was awarded four PC seats. Most provincial
party leaders sense that Da'wa will likely assume the
governor's chair, but are awaiting the results of wrangling
in Baghdad before making an educated assessment on top
executive spots. Possible Da'wa gubernatorial candidates
include re-elected PC member Muhammed Shi'a and current
Director General (DG) of Health Dr. Zamil Shi'a Muhammed
al-Gharaybi. In recent meetings, ISCI, Da'wa, and National
Reform Trend provincial party leaders pledged their
commitment to continuing cooperation and engagement with the
PRT and Coalition Forces (CF). End summary.

Da'wa and ISCI Tie for First, Sadrists Drop to Third
-------------- --------------


3. (C/REL MCFI) In the closely contested election in
previously Sadrist-controlled Maysan, PM Maliki's State of
Law list and ISCI's Shahid al-Mihrab list were both awarded
eight seats on the new PC. In certified results, ISCI
rebounded from its initial third-place standing in the
February 6 preliminary results and edged out the
Sadrist/OMS-backed Free Independent Trend (Tayar al-Ahrar) by
a mere 18 votes for the second highest vote tally. ISCI

officials claimed in meetings with the PRT that the party's
rebound was an indicator of its continuing popularity and
influence in Maysan. The Sadrists were awarded seven PC
seats, followed by former PM Dr. Ja'afari's National Reform
Trend list with four seats.

Da'wa: "We Will Be in the Lead"
--------------


4. (C/REL MCFI) During a recent PRT meeting with outgoing
Da'wa Deputy PC Chair Latif Abbud Qasim, he confidently
confided that Maysanis chose Da'wa because they wanted
politicians who will make a difference. Latif offered little
information on the entities with which Da'wa would attempt to
form a governing coalition, only saying that Da'wa provincial
officials were in close contact with Baghdad, awaiting
guidance from the Prime Minister. Tight-lipped about the
direction of reported negotiations with the Sadrists, Latif
commented that Da'wa was open to any political entity that
subscribed to Da'wa's agenda of development reconstruction,
security, and Iraqi unity. (Note: International news outlets
have reported that Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the
Prime Minister are close to completing a deal to form
coalitions in provinces where Da'wa and the Sadrists won a
combined majority of PC seats. End note.) Sadrist contacts
have told the PRT that Da'wa aggressively recruited the
Sadrists, and that PM Maliki needed a strong partner like the
QSadrists, and that PM Maliki needed a strong partner like the
Sadrists to stay in power. Conversely, outgoing ISCI Deputy
Governor Abdul Hussein Abdul Radha warned that Da'wa would
not risk an alliance with the Sadrists because it could
mobilize disgruntled tribal leaders.

Breakdown of Top Provincial Positions
--------------


5. (C/REL MCFI) In discussions regarding potential candidates
for leadership roles in the new provincial government -
including the PC Chairman, Governor, and Deputy Governor
positions - there was a consensus among provincial party
leaders that Da'wa would likely fill the governor's chair,
while the other top provincial positions would be decided by
committees and distributed among the four governing entities.
Possible Da'wa gubernatorial candidates include re-elected
PC member Muhammed Shi'a, who received the second largest
vote tally on the Da'wa list, PC member Sheikh Ali Muhammed
al-Abawdi, and Dr. Zamil Shi'a Muhammed al-Gharaybi, the
current Director General (DG) of Health. Opposing provincial
party leaders had floated Da'wa Deputy PC Chair Latif Abbud

BAGHDAD 00000504 002 OF 002


Qasim's name as a possible candidate for governor. Latif
received the fourth largest total of votes on the Da'wa list.
When asked by Team Leader if he was a candidate for
governor, Latif smiled and shook his head no. For ISCI,
Deputy Governor Abdul Hussein, who ran away with the most
votes among Shahid al-Mihrab candidates, expressed his
interest in the governorship to the PRT.

Comment
--------------


6. (C/REL MCFI) The release of the final election results on
February 19 revealed there will be relatively few holdovers
from the outgoing provincial government. According to
National Reform Trend provincial party leader Khalid Abd
al-Wahid Kabyan Sakhi, the top vote-getter for Dr. Ja'afari's
party, newly-elected Council members will need extensive
training in order to effectively fulfill their
responsibilities. Although demoted from its previous
position of authority, the Sadrists are reportedly close to
accepting an offer from Da'wa to form a majority governing
coalition. Such an alliance would be bolstered by the
similarities between both entities' stated governing agendas
and would further marginalize ISCI in the province. Having
met with representatives from three of the four political
entities that will make up the new PC, we think it is clear
that Baghdad is playing an important role in
coalition-building in Maysan, and that all will have to await
the outcomes of these closely-guarded negotiations in the
next few days. With firm commitments to continuing
cooperation with USG elements from our ISCI, Da'wa, Ja'afari,
and moderate Sadrist provincial leadership contacts, the PRT
will continue to target appropriate training opportunities
for the new PC and other provincial leaders to facilitate
their capacity to govern. End comment.
BUTENIS