Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD49
2009-01-09 09:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

CALLS TO POSTPONE DIYALA ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PINS KDEM IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3025
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0049/01 0090931
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 090931Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1152
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000049 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: CALLS TO POSTPONE DIYALA ELECTIONS

Classified By: Classified by PMIN Robert Ford, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000049

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2024
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: CALLS TO POSTPONE DIYALA ELECTIONS

Classified By: Classified by PMIN Robert Ford, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: During his December 30-31 visit to Diyala
Province, Kurdish and Shi'a political leaders explained to
visiting PMIN their demands for a postponement of the January
31 provincial elections in Diyala. The leaders cited
security and logistical concerns to justify a delay, though
it seems their main motivation is to stave off electoral
setbacks. Sunni Arab interlocutors insisted that the
elections take place January 31 as scheduled and denounced
efforts to derail them as undemocratic and potentially
destabilizing. The province's senior election commission
officer and senior security force commander each told PMIN
that the security situation was conducive to elections and
that all of the logistical mechanisms were in place. Should
efforts to postpone the elections succeed, the majority Sunni
Arab population, already alienated by GOI security
operations, will react negatively, and stability and
normalization in the troubled province will likely be set
back. PMIN underlined to his Shia and Kurdish interlocutors
that we see no reason to delay the election in Diyala and
national level Iraqi government officials have told us that
they will not seek to delay Diyala,s election. End Summary.

--------------
Diyala Kurds Seeking Elections Delay
--------------


2. (C) The Kurdish political parties are calling to postpone
the scheduled provincial elections, citing security and
logistical concerns. The security situation remains tenuous
in Diyala, Provincial Council Chairman Ibrahim Bajellan told
PMIN December 31. Kidnappings and assassinations continue to
occur with disturbing regularity, he stated. The GOI's
security operation, "Operation Benevolent Diyala" failed to
destroy insurgent elements by concentrating its effort on
relatively peaceful areas (e.g., Khanaqin) and leaving other,
more dangerous, places untouched, Bajellan charged. In fact,
Bajellan stated that areas such as Qara Tapa and Jalula are
still controlled by AQI. The security situation in the
province is much the same as it was in December 2005, during
the last election, he assessed. Another reason for delay is
logistical in nature, he asserted. Many Internally Displaced

Persons (IDPs) will not be able to vote in the elections.
Bajellan explained that of the twenty-five thousand families
displaced from Kurdish areas of the province, only two
thousand have returned. These IDPs will be effectively
disenfranchised in the provincial elections, he complained.


3. (C) Bajellan was also concerned about election fraud and
specifically complained that the Governorate Elections Office
(GEO) is staffed with 70 percent Sunni Arabs - and suggested
that irregularities could result from such a biased
composition of the Elections Office. PMIN countered that
security in Diyala appeared no worse at the end of 2008 than
it was in late 2005 ) indeed, it appeared far better given
the sectarian fighting that occurred in late 2005 in Khalis
and Mada,in. Ultimately, however, Bajellan conceded that he
was worried that the Sunni Arabs will gain a majority on the
provincial council, and a Sunni victory could result in a
change of governorate policies less hostile to Baathists.
This would, he predicted, lead to a new escalation of
violence in Diyala.

--------------
Shi'a also Seek Delay
--------------


3. (C) The major Shi'a political parties are also calling for
postponing the provincial elections. Provincial Council
member Ali al-Tamimi (ISCI) told PMIN December 30 evening
Qmember Ali al-Tamimi (ISCI) told PMIN December 30 evening
that he feared that the Shia parties would also lose seats in
the new Provincial Council. He argued that the forced
displacement of Shi'a would be the primary cause for this
loss. He estimated that thirty-five thousand families are
currently displaced and that many of these have moved to
other regions and did not register there. PMIN noted that
the election commission has set up special centers for IDP
voting. Dr. Ahmed Hameed Khalaf (from Ibrahim Ja'ffari's
Reform Party) also complained to us that many people are not
aware of the voting centers' locations. Khalaf also warned
that fear and intimidation will keep many Shi'a from voting,
primarily those living in Sunni-majority areas. PMIN
underlined that we would work closely with Iraqi security
forces to ensure people could vote. It was incumbent on
parties like Khalaf,s to help us identify problem areas,
PMIN added. PMIN also pointed to the deployment of Iraqi
election observers, and Khalaf agreed that the presence of
elections observers would be vital in minimizing voting
irregularities.

--------------

BAGHDAD 00000049 002 OF 003


Sunnis Insist the Show Must Go On
--------------


4. (C) In a December 30 meeting with the provincial
leadership of the (Sunni Arab) Iraqi Islamic Party, also
attended by several Diyalan IIP members of the CoR - the
national parliament, Sunni Arabs insisted to PMIN that the
provincial elections take place on schedule. Deputy Governor
Auwf Rahoumi claimed that many of the province's problems
will be solved with elections. From his perspective, the
main problem is that the (Sunni Arab) majority is being ruled
over by the (Shi'a) minority in Diyala, causing sectarian
tension and violence from both sides. Rahoumi believed the
security situation in Diyala, while still difficult, has
greatly improved and saw no legitimate reason for delaying
the elections. However, he claimed that (Shi'a) Governor
Ra'ad has been pressured by Prime Minister Maliki's Da'wa
party to postpone elections. (An emissary from Maliki,
senior Shi'a parliamentarian Ali Al-Adib, visited Diyala on
December 29 to discuss elections.) In turn, Auwf continued,
the Governor has tried to pressure him to call for a
postponement. Should the elections be postponed, claimed
Salim Jabouri, prominent parliamentarian and native Diyalan,
apathy amongst the citizenry would result and stability would
diminish in the province. IIP Diyala Provincial Council
member Sheikh Basus argued that the reason Shi'a and Kurdish
parties were calling for a postponement was simply because
they fear losing. He continued that many of these parties
were not prepared for elections and did not select the best
candidates for their lists. (Comment: Interestingly, the
IIP leadership in Diyala has put forward almost all new faces
on its provincial council candidate list ) a fact that they
took pride in highlighting to us. End Comment.)

-------------- --------------
Elections and Security Officials See no Cause for Delay
-------------- --------------


5. (C) In separate meetings with PMIN, both the province's
senior elections official and the senior Iraqi Army commander
in the province said that the security situation in the
province was adequate for elections. Recent operations in
Diyala have degraded the abilities of insurgents to launch
terrorist attacks to a great extent, General Abdel Karim
stated to us December 31. He was openly derisive of the
province's political establishment, dismissing local
politicians as corrupt and ineffectual. The General assessed
that the Provincial Council had accomplished very little for
the citizens of Diyala and continued that in his opinion,
"reconstruction has not really begun in the province." (He
added that if he had control of the Diyala governorate,s
project funding, he could launch reconstruction
expeditiously.)


6. (C) Amer Latif, the Governorate Elections Officer (GEO),
shared General Abdul-Kareem's opinion that the election could
take place on schedule. According to the GEO, all the
mechanisms and processes are in place and his office was
ready for the January 31 elections. Latif nonetheless
complained that IHEC, the national elections commission, had
ignored his repeated requests for additional resources, and
said he was only staffed with 50 percent of his authorized
positions. Latif, himself a Kurd, also acknowledged a
sectarian imbalance among GEO staff (which we heard
separately was 70 percent Sunni) and said he was trying to
correct the imbalance if the IHEC would allow him to hire
more staff.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) At first glance, it may seem easy to sympathize with
Q7. (C) At first glance, it may seem easy to sympathize with
Kurdish and Shi'a arguments that provincial security woes and
logistical obstacles merit a postponement of the elections.
For several years, Diyala has been one of Iraq's most violent
provinces, with VBIEDs, suicide vests, sectarian militias,
AQI and sectarian militias all regular features on the
landscape. However, it is also true that security conditions
in the province have improved significantly, and while the
local elections infrastructure is far from perfect, it is
apparently at least as functional, and probably more, than in

2005.


8. (C) The GEO and local security commanders are better
qualified than political parties to deliver objective
judgments on whether Diyala is ready for elections, and both
have said that it is. The province's majority Sunni
population, already alienated by a controversial GOI security
operation launched in the summer, which has netted 1150 Sunni
detainees out of a total 1200 detainees, would certainly be
further alienated by a delay driven by the electoral fears of
Shi'a and Kurdish rivals. This, in turn, would likely stunt

BAGHDAD 00000049 003 OF 003


the province's process of post-conflict rehabilitation.
Fortunately, while Diyala,s local Shia and Kurdish political
leaders quietly urge delay, national level Iraqi officials
have assured the Ambassador that they do not intend to seek a
delay in Diyala,s elections End Comment.
CROCKER