DA,WA FORMING PARTNERSHIP WITH HOPE OF TWO RIVERS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000477

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI IZ
SUBJECT: DA,WA FORMING PARTNERSHIP WITH HOPE OF TWO RIVERS
IN KARBALA

REF: BAGHDAD 364

Classified By: PRT Karbala Team Leader John Kincannon for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).

This is a PRT Karbala reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: The State of Law Coalition (Da'wa) and the
Hope of the Two Rivers (disaffected Da'wa, tribal and others)
each won nine Provincial Council (PC) seats in last month's
provincial elections. Both separately have announced that
their lists may form a governing partnership. State of Law
also claims to have reached an understanding with the top
vote-getter, independent candidate Yousif al-Haboubi. The
three lists together would control 19 of 27 seats, one more
than the two-thirds needed for a veto-proof majority, but
consensus on who will be governor has not been reached. Some
here are worried violence could result if the Sadrist
Independent Free People's Trend list -- which Da'wa also was
courting publicly -- feels jilted by a State Law-Hope deal,
but the Sadrists apparently already have extracted other
agreements that may assure their quiescence. End Summary.

State Law-Hope Partnership in the Making
--------------


2. (SBU) The Independent High Electoral Commission revealed
on February 19 that the new, 27-seat Karbala PC will include
nine members from the State of Law coalition list (including
current Governor Aqeel Mahmoud al-Khazali),nine from the
Hope of the Two Rivers list, four from the Independent Free
People's Trend list, four from the ISCI-led Martyr of the
Imam Ali Shrine list, and Yousif Majid al-Haboubi. On
February 22, Agriculture Director General Amal al-Din al-Hir,
a currently serving PC member who won a seat on the new
Council as head of the State of Law slate, announced that his
list would "team up" with the Hope of the Two Rivers as well
as with Haboubi. In an apparent reference to the Independent
Free People's Trend list supported by followers of extremist
Shi'a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, al-Hir described Hope of the
Two Rivers as "closer to our ideas and goals." As elsewhere
in southern Iraq, State of Law in Karbala had previously
acknowledged that it was seeking an accommodation with the
Sadrists (reftel).


3. (C) Also on February 22, Hope of the Two Rivers spokesman
Mohammad Tahir al-Asadi announced that his list had entered
into "serious meetings" with the other winning lists, terming
a partnership with the State of Law as probable "if we reach
good understandings in the coming days." Together with
al-Haboubi, a State of Law-Hope coalition would control 19 of
Karbala's 27 PC seats, creating a two-thirds-plus-one,
veto-proof majority. Former governor and provincial UN
Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) representative Ali Kamonah
told PRT members of February 23 that State of Law and Hope
are at loggerheads over who will be the next governor; each
is claiming the top slot. However, he continued, both lists
are considering a compromise proposal wherein an outsider not
currently involved in Karbala politics would be selected.
The UNAMI representative said that there is "almost zero"
chance that Haboubi will become governor because, as a former
regime official, he is trusted neither by State of Law nor by
Hope.

How Will the Sadrists React?
--------------


4. (C) Citing a variety of citizen-in-the-street contacts, a
reliable Iraqi employee of the PRT on February 22 said locals
are worried Sadrists will react violently to their apparent
jilting by the State of Law-Hope coalition. Memories of the
militia battles that rocked the province as recently as
summer 2007 remain fresh and, although security here is good,
Qsummer 2007 remain fresh and, although security here is good,
no one wishes to see progress in rebuilding the province
slowed by threats or acts of violence. However, Kamonah told
PRT members on February 23 that State of Law had preempted
any potential hard feelings over its deal with Hope by first
meeting with the Independent Free People's Trend to see what
it would take to guarantee the Sadrists' continued political
quiescence. According to UNAMI Kamonah, the Sadrists already
have extracted their political pound of flesh from Da'wa:
The agreement to expedite closure of criminal cases stemming
from the deadly clashes during Shabaniyah in 2007 between
Sadr's al-Mahdi Army militia and its rival, the ISCI-backed
Badr Organization. (Note: Kamonah had previously told the
PRT that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki dispatched a
delegation of judges and lawyers to Karbala in early February
with instructions to seal this deal with the Independent Free
People's Trend; see reftel. End Note.)


5. (C) The Sadrists' effective political sidelining pales in
comparison to ISCI's isolation and near-irrelevance here.

BAGHDAD 00000477 002 OF 002


ISCI saw its hopes of displacing Da'wa in Karbala decisively
-- and, perhaps, irrevocably -- dashed in the elections.
Widely (if somewhat unfairly) blamed for fueling
militia-generated chaos with Iranian money, ISCI and its Badr
vanguard were fortunate, via their Martyr of the Imam Ali
Shrine list, to have won any Council seats. The molten
animus that continues to characterize relations between the
Sadrists and ISCI/Badr here probably precludes their forming
an alliance, nor would an alliance have any benefit given the
small number of seats each party controls.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) As we previously have noted, in the landscape of
shifting allegiances and strange bedfellows that is Karbala
politics, uncertainty is the only certainty. Nonetheless, a
State Law-Hope Coalition makes sense for both lists; their
differences involve personalities (Hope was formed in
reaction to Governor Aqeel's firing of provincial ISF
commander MG Ra'ad Shaker Jawdat al-Hasnawi),not policies.
Participation in such an alliance also would serve Haboubi's
interests. Though he was the only "list" to garner
double-digit support at the polls, he controls only one
council vote, lacks allies and -- if he does not play ball --
risks marginalization akin to that awaiting his new PC
colleagues from the Independent Free People's Trend and,
especially, the Martyr of the Imam Ali Shrine lists. End
Comment.
BUTENIS