RRT ERBIL: NAWSHIRWAN'S PLANNED ELECTORAL LIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000476

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2024
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: NAWSHIRWAN'S PLANNED ELECTORAL LIST
THREATENS KDP-PUK ACCORD

REF: BAGHDAD 430

Classified By: RRT ERBIL Team Leader Lucy Tamlyn for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d).

This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) cable.


1. (C) Summary: Former PUK Deputy Secretary General
Nawshirwan Mustafa's announcement of his intentions to run an
independent list in the upcoming Iraqi Kurdistan
Parliamentary elections has forced another showdown between
President Talabani and PUK Politburo "reformists" who
objected to Talabani's proposed expulsion of Nawshirwan from
the PUK. The prospect of a fractured PUK losing votes to a
new independent list has also shaken up KDP-PUK relations.
The leaders of both parties have profited from the current
power-sharing arrangement, and a weakened PUK could undermine
an alliance that has worked very well for both sides (and
possibly dredge up old inter-party animosities). End
summary.

Nawshirwan Shakes up the Status Quo
--------------


2. (C) Former PUK Deputy Secretary General Nawshirwan Mustafa
let it be known in early February that he intended to run a
separate list in the upcoming election for the Iraqi
Kurdistan Parliament, taking advantage of provisions in the
Iraqi and Kurdistan Region electoral law that would allow him
to run an independent list outside a formal party structure
if he garners the 500 necessary number of signatures.
According to his closest political ally, former PUK Politburo
member Mohammad Tawfiq, Nawshirwan, the leader of the PUK's
unofficial reformist faction (reftel),leaked his plan to the
press in order to take the pulse of the public and the main
political parties before making an official announcement,
However, Tawfiq insists that Nawshirwan currently has no
plans to create a new party.

KDP Threatens to Nix Joint Accord with PUK
--------------


3. (SBU) Nawshirwan's announcement brought a swift reaction
from the KDP. According to press reports, the Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP) threatened to back out of its
agreement with the PUK whereby the two parties run a joint
election list and equally distribute parliamentary seats
between them. Having calculated that Nawshirwan would draw
votes from the PUK, the KDP leadership apparently felt it no
longer made sense for them to award the PUK with an equal
number of seats.

Talabani Provokes Intense Opposition within PUK Politburo
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Confirming press accounts, Tawfiq told us that
Secretary General Talabani moved to expel Nawshirwan from the
PUK shortly after the KDP's warning, presumably to neutralize
the threat he posed to the accord. Multiple contacts in
Sulaimaniyah have confirmed that Talabani's move provoked
impassioned opposition from a group of four reform-minded
Politburo members who are closely associated with Nawshirwan
- Omer Said Ali, Jalal Jawhar, Mustafa Said Qadir, and Osman
Haji Mahmoud. They gained a critical ally when they were
joined (albeit temporarily) by PUK Deputy Secretary General
Kosrat Rasoul Ali. All five Politburo members threatened to
resign if Talabani carried out his plan to expel Nawshirwan.
(Note: Our Talabani contacts claim that Talabani gave
Nawshirwan the same ultimatum as before: work with Talabani
on reform or leave the PUK. End Note) Unhappy with Talabani's
leadership, they also repeated their long-standing demands
for more transparency of PUK finances and truly democratic
decision-making within the party. Press reports and contacts
Qdecision-making within the party. Press reports and contacts
in Sulaimaniyah confirm that nothing final has been resolved,
and the parties continue to hold meetings.

Comments
--------------


5. (C) Our Sulaimaniyah contacts lead us to believe that
Talabani has apparently opted to quell the more immediate and
serious threat --- internal rebellion. By taking off the
table his decision to expel Nawshirwan from the PUK ) at
least for now ) Talibani may have kept the Politburo intact.
Meanwhile, Talabani is continuing to hold a series of
meetings with them over proposed reforms. But these
meetings, too, may be seen as a tactic to buy more time.
Only last October, for instance, the same four reformist
Politburo members submitted a letter to Talibani demanding
party reform, and while their demands received wide press

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coverage, the promised reform has yet to arrive.

6. (C) Kosrat's moves in this latest round are followed
intently due to his political clout (and the presence of Pesh
merga units loyal to him). That Kosrat genuinely supports the
demands for reform is not clear; we believe it more likely
that he joined with the other Politburo members for purely
tactical reasons. It is likely that Talabani will find a way
to continue to split Kosrat off from the other four with
concessions.

7. (C) Nawshirwan's actions are consistent with his
long-standing belief that the two-party KDP-PUK condominium
is undemocratic and that a genuine political opposition is
needed if the Kurdistan Regional Government is to become a
true democracy. Indeed, he argued against the PUK forming a
joint KDP-PUK government back in 1992, after the first
elections in the newly established Kurdistan Regional
Government, for the very same reason.

8. (C) Nawshirwan's list is very much a KDP problem - and
not only because the new list could draw votes away from the
KDP. The leaders of both parties have profited from the
current power-sharing arrangement, and a weakened and divided
PUK undermines an alliance that has worked very well for both
sides. In addition, not far from people's minds is the fear
that ending the agreement between the two major parties could
dredge up old inter-party animosities.
BUTENIS