SADR CITY POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS AMID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000475

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2014
TAGS: IZ PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: SADR CITY POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS AMID
STRONG SUPPORT FOR MALIKI; RESIDENTS (MOSTLY) WANT U.S.
TROOPS TO GO HOME

Classified By: Deputy Polcouns John G. Fox, reasons 1.4 b/d.


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a series of informal conversations with
Poloff, a diverse group of Sadr City residents -- ranging
from day laborers and students to shopkeepers -- voiced
overall confidence in the fairness and credibility of the
January 31, 2009, Provincial Council (PC) elections, in which
candidates associated with PM Maliki's Da'wa party
outperformed others by a sizable margin in Baghdad (winning
28 of 57 seats). Sadr City's District Advisory Council (DAC)
Chairman, Hassan Shama, however, complained about Da'wa's
alleged manipulation of election resources; he openly
questioned the results. Shama said that Sadr residents had
supported Maliki due to his tough stand against Moqtada
Sadr's JAM -- but, he added, Maliki was ironically now on the
verge of forming a key partnership in the capital with
Sadrist leaders. Residents said they welcomed a U.S. troop
drawdown in Sadr City, with many signaling weariness over
U.S. MRAPs and humvees in congested city streets, but several
cautioned against too rapid a reduction. One resident warned
that sectarian "embers" still burned in the capital city.
END SUMMARY.


POST-ELECTION: HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR MALIKI
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2. (U) A sample of about two dozen Sadr City residents the
week of February 16 showed widespread confidence in the
provincial elections results, as they gathered and voiced
opinions adjacent to the Sadr City DAC building. Most of
them (shopkeepers, students, unemployed youth, ex-military)
told Poloff of their open support for PM Maliki and his slate
of candidates. One teacher said that, while some services in
the city had improved, more needed to be done. The PC, he
added, would be "tested" this year following the election.
Since specific candidates had been on the ballot, it would be
easier to hold individual representatives (not just parties)
accountable. One elderly man said Maliki had won support
because "he treated all Iraqis the same, keeping the peace
between Shia and Sunni."


3. (C) Hassan Shama, current DAC chairman and losing
candidate in the PC election, questioned Da'wa's influence in
the election outcome, stating "they controlled the process,
the budget and the staff." He predicted the new marriage of
convenience between Maliki and Sadrists "would be bad for
Sadr City" and added, wryly, that residents had voted for
Maliki because of his military campaign against Shia militias
-- but now "the same Maliki hero embraces the Sadrists!"
When pressed, the chairman did think services for Sadr City
might temporarily improve, but only in order to win votes and
sustain Da'wa momentum in the run-up to parliamentary
elections at the end of the year. Shama said his principal
concern remained any side deals Da'wa might make with
Sadrists and the reemergence of Shia militias as U.S. forces
drawdown. (Note: Shama has echoed this concern often, a
claim rebutted by the IA Brigade commander. Most residents
have not flagged to Poloff similar concerns about a quick
reemergence of JAM forces; that said, U.S. troops only patrol
a quarter of the city and firsthand coalition insights into
Qa quarter of the city and firsthand coalition insights into
the farthest reaches of the vast Baghdad slum area remain
limited. End Note.)


4. (U) One DAC member said that Sadr residents seemed to
understand this election much better than the last PC
election, recognizing individual names and candidates. He
added, however, that he was not optimistic that the new
council would be more effective, stressing "we will watch
them closely." The DAC member believed past abuses and
corruption in the provincial body under ISCI leadership would
continue under any new Da'wa/Sadrist coalition.


ART, AND ARTISTS, IN BAGHDAD: WHO CARES?
--------------


5. (SBU) One prominent Baghdad artist, hired by a local
contractor who is building a park in Sadr City with coalition
funds (CERP),deplored the provincial government's lack of
support for and interest in the entire artist community. He

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said current officials had neglected the capital's once
flourishing artistic scene. Five of the "last, best, most
prominent" artists had recently left Baghdad, with only
approximately ten leading ones remaining. The artist doubted
the new provincial government would invest in artistic
initiatives, which had been a visible priority of Saddam's
government. He said that while security in the capital had
improved, most artists in his circle of friends wanted to see
how conditions would endure once American forces departed --
concluding art was easier to make after war, not during war.


U.S. DRAWDOWN: SOON, AND STEADY
--------------


6. (U) The collection of Sadr residents echoed variations on
a common theme regarding the American military presence: it
was time for U.S. troops to leave the once-volatile city in
line with the Security Agreement. Several voiced pride that
the now famous shoe-thrower (during ex-President Bush's
December 2008 visit) was a native son; one teen said the
shoes spoke "for all us." An older man standing nearby told
Poloff that recent security gains were real, but fragile,
noting "your troops need to leave, but not before you have
made our army stronger." He concluded by warning that the
sectarian "embers" in Baghdad were still present.


COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Residents of Sadr City have benefited from Maliki's
self-promoted "strong, but fair" leadership mantle and the
relative calm in the city following summer 2008's military
campaign against JAM. Da'wa clearly has early momentum in
advance of follow-on parliamentary elections. Sadr residents
appear inclined to give Maliki the benefit of the doubt,
emphasizing his success with security (alongside U.S.
efforts) over still-lagging progress in infrastructure.
Whether a new PC delivers for Sadr City will be the benchmark
to watch across 2009. The likely integration of Sadrist
leaders into Maliki's coalition might reflect the beginning
of an enduring union of Shia leaders who have publicly
highlighted their strong nationalist message and program.


8. (C) On the security front, Sadr City remains a key test
case of the SA as we begin to drawdown U.S. forces in Iraq.
The sprawling neighborhood, home to 40 percent of the
capital's population, has benefited from security
improvements since the influx of U.S. and IA units in summer

2008. ISF (both leaders and grunts) and most local
officials, alongside contractors -- all groups most closely
tied to the U.S. military and its generous CERP project
budgets -- tend to emphasize the need for American troops to
stay, whereas a majority of average residents more
convincingly argue that it is time for a steady U.S. troop
withdrawal to begin.
BUTENIS