KARBALA PILGRIM ATTACK WORSE THAN REPORTED

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000385

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019
TAGS: PTER PINR ASEC IZ
SUBJECT: KARBALA PILGRIM ATTACK WORSE THAN REPORTED

REF: BAGHDAD 275

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Don Cooke for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a PRT Karbala reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary: According to Karbala's police chief, the
blast near the Imam Husayn shrine on February 12 that killed
multiple people on Arba'ayniyah pilgrimage was caused by an
explosive device (IED),not a suicide bomber as reported in
the media. However, witnesses have told the PRT that the
attack was carried out by a female suicide bomber. Personnel
at Karbala's main hospital report casualty figures higher
than those in initial media reports -- at least 12 people
killed and more than 80 wounded, many of them badly burned
and in critical condition. With several million pilgrims
expected this month and limited police personnel available to
search women, Karbala remains vulnerable to female suicide
bombers during pilgrimage season. End Summary.

The Official Version
--------------


2. (U) According to Karbala police director BG Ali Muhammad
al-Gireri, an IED -- probably fueled by a propane tank --
caused the blast that occurred at approximately 1630 local
time on February 12. At a press conference on February 13,
Gireri dismissed as inaccurate media reports quoting unnamed
police officials stating that a suicide bomber was
responsible. However, he confirmed local and international
press figures concerning the casualties: Eight killed and 52
wounded. Gireri went on to enumerate the measures the Iraqi
Security Forces (ISF) have undertaken in Karbala to safeguard
the approximately 6 million pilgrims coming for Arba'ayniyah,
which climaxes on the evening of February 15: 30,000
uniformed police, including 1,500 female officers to search
women; a 5,000-man SWAT team; 400 rooftop snipers; a 175-man
explosive ordinance disposal team; fixed- and rotary-wing air
assets; and an undisclosed number of plainclothes male and
female officers circulating among the visitors.

What Witnesses Say
--------------


3. (C) Witnesses contacted by the PRT dispute Gireri's
assertion that the blast was caused by an IED. Two locally
resident pilgrims -- one male, one female -- told a PRT
member that, just before the blast, they saw a woman run from
an alley into a stream of visitors proceeding on Bab al-Qibla
approximately 200 meters from the Imam Husayn Shrine. The
female insisted that the woman was wearing a belt-bomb.
According to both witnesses, the explosions of propane tanks
used by nearby food vendors burned many people. They said
they escaped injury because they were entering their pension
when the blast occurred.


4. (C) Medical personnel at Karbala's main al-Husayn
Hospital, where virtually all of the victims were treated,
told the PRT that more were killed and injured than
officially reported. A doctor who spoke to a PRT member on
the condition of anonymity said that 12 people were killed
outright in the explosion and more than 80 wounded. The
latter number, he continued, includes many who are severely
burned and in critical condition. He and other hospital
personnel stated they anticipate some of the burn victims
will not survive.

Comment: The Weak Link
--------------


5. (C) With large numbers of widows, the Iraqi population has
many more women than men, a fact PRT officers saw clearly
when observing the provincial elections on January 31
(reftel). 1500 women cannot possibly search more than 3
million visitors effectively, no matter how expert or
well-trained they may be. It would have been relatively easy
for a female suicide bomber to enter the shrines area
undetected, and we regard Gireri's insistence that the blast
was the result of an IED as an attempt to divert attention
from the weak link in the ISF's security regimen. End
Comment.


CROCKER