VP MAHDI DISCUSSES SARKOZY VISIT, CONCERNS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000376

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: MARR PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: VP MAHDI DISCUSSES SARKOZY VISIT, CONCERNS ABOUT
MALIKI, AND ELECTION RESULTS IN AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL
MEETING

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On February 10, Ambassador Crocker held a
farewell meeting with Vice President Adil Abd al-Mahdi during
which they discussed the visit of French President Nicholas
Sarkozy, Mahdi's concern that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
is "monopolizing" power, the Islamic Supreme Council of
Iraq's (ISCI) reaction to its poor performance in the recent
provincial elections, and resolving the dispute in parliament
about selecting a new Speaker. End Summary.

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French President Nicholas Sarkozy's Commits to Iraq
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2. (C) Vice President Adil Abd al-Mahdi said he was extremely
pleased with French President Sarkozy's February 10 visit to
Baghdad because Sarkozy expressed his commitment to leading
Europe in stronger engagement with Iraq. Sarkozy promised a
renewed development and business relationship and he
distanced himself from France's past policies toward Iraq,
and had conveyed an invitation to President Talabani for a
state visit in 2009.

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Mahdi's Greatest Worry: Maliki's Accumulation of Power
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3. (C) When asked what worries him most about Iraq' future,
Mahdi said (again) it was Maliki's "monopolization" of power.
Mahdi said Maliki is using whatever means he can -- legal or
illegal -- to control Iraq, and if Iraq continues down this
path "take my word, the entire project will be lost,"
potentially devolving into a strongman state like Egypt.
Ambassador urged that Iraqi leaders focus on developing
Iraq's institutions and put less emphasis on personalities,
and reminded Mahdi that structures are in place through the
Iraqi Constitution to limit the authority of any prime
minister. Mahdi retorted that Iraq's ills are about good/bad
leadership, not just whether proper institutions are in
place. If you have power you can manipulate institutions,
said Mahdi. The Presidency Council has tried to convene
meetings with Maliki, Mahdi said, but it did not work well.


4. (C) Mahdi predicted that Maliki would "put all his weight"
to stop Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) member Ayad Summarie from
becoming the next COR speaker, which would be another example
of him exerting undo influence. Mahdi said the Presidency
Council issued a neutral statement today urging parliament to
quickly resolve the speaker issue. Vice President Tariq
al-Hashimi, Mahdi said, wanted the statement to be more
aggressive (presumably in favor of IIP).

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Mahdi Surprised By Elections, But Quickly Accepted Defeat
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5. (C) Ambassador praised the public acceptance by Mahdi and
the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) of the provincial
election results. Crocker said such immediate and clear
signal of accepting defeat will improve Iraq's democratic
process and has paved the way for incumbents in the
provincial governments to peacefully cede authority to the
newly elected officials. Mahdi acknowledged that he never
thought ISCI would fare so poorly, but, soon after the
results became apparent, he wrote a statement accepting the
elections to prevent others in ISCI from protesting the
results. Mahdi claimed Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim and Ammar
al-Hakim prepared a different post-election statement that
Qal-Hakim prepared a different post-election statement that
was less conciliatory, but they (and other ISCI leaders)
eventually agreed upon Mahdi's statement.


6. (C) Mahdi predicted that the Unified Iraqi Alliance (UIA)
will continue but that Maliki and his loyalists will try to
more aggressively push their own ideas within the Shia
alliance. How Maliki's State of Law forms the new provincial
governments will signal how UIA will cooperate into the
future, Mahdi said.


7. (C) Although ISCI has lost influence in the southern
provinces it will still encourage decentralization as a
matter of principle, said Mahdi, even though doing so will
not directly benefit the party. "We will wait four years,"
said Mahdi, and hope for a better showing. ISCI is a very
organized and large party, Mahdi said, so it will remain
strong.
CROCKER