DA'WA WHEELING AND DEALING IN KARBALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000364

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2019
TAGS: PGOV SOCI PINR IZ
SUBJECT: DA'WA WHEELING AND DEALING IN KARBALA

REF: A. A) BAGHDAD 315

B. B) BAGHDAD 251

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In an apparent attempt to minimize the
influence the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) will
have in the new Provincial Council (PC),Da'wa leaders in
Karbala are working furiously to form alliances with the
second-place Hope of the Two Rivers and the fourth-place
Independent Free People's Trend lists. A widespread rumor
claims they also are attempting to woo top vote-getter Yousif
al-Haboubi. End Summary.

Shall We Dance?
--------------


2. (C) The Independent High Electoral Commission told the PRT
on February 10 that the new, 27-seat Karbala Provincial
Council (PC) will include ten members from the State of Law
Coalition list, ten from the Hope of the Two Rivers list
(Hope),three from the Sadrist Independent Free People's
Trend list, three from the ISCI-backed Martyr of the Imam Ali
Shrine list, and Yousif Majid al-Haboubi. These figures are
unofficial and the final seat allocation could differ
slightly. According to former governor and current United
Nations Assistance Mission to Iraq (UNAMI) representative Ali
Kamonah, senior Da'wa party figures -- led by Governor Aqeel
Mahmoud al-Khazali -- are working furiously to form alliances
with Hope and the Sadrist list. The Da'wa-funded and led
State Law Coalition list fared poorly in the provincial
elections on January 31, receiving just 8.5 percent of the
vote.


3. (C) Kamonah told PRT officers on January 11 that Aqeel and
others had met the previous day with Hope candidates --
including brothers Mohammed Hamid and Abbas Hamid al-Musawi,
both former Da'wa supporters who split with the party over
Aqeel's ouster of former Karbala ISF commander MG Ra'ad
Shaker Jawdat al-Hasnawi (ref A) -- to "bury the hatchet" and
find common ground to keep ISCI from capitalizing on Da'wa's
relative weakness. Despite the fact that the Hope list --
which placed second at the polls with 8.8 percent of the vote
-- was financed in part by ISCI and features candidates
(including at least one Fadhilah supporter) to whom an
alliance with Da'wa would be anathema, Kamonah told PRT
officers that Hope had sealed a deal with Da'wa.


4. (C) Kamonah further reported, and a knowledgeable contact
within the provincial government confirmed, that Prime
Minister Nouri al-Maliki earlier this week had dispatched a
delegation of judges and lawyers to Karbala. According to
both sources, the delegation's mission was to expedite the
closure of criminal cases pending against followers of
radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. The cases steam from the
deadly clashes during Shabaniyah in 2007 between Sadr's
al-Mahdi Army militia and its rival, the ISCI-backed Badr
Corps. Both sources say that Maliki, with Aqeel's
encouragement, hoped to convince the Sadr-supported list to
join forces with Da'wa in opposing ISCI within the Karbala
PC. We have no word yet on whether this overture was
successful. The delegation's review of Sadrist cases in
concurrence with Da'wa-Sadrist coalition negotiations mirrors
efforts carried out in other provinces, as outlined in ref B.

Odd Man Out -- or In?
--------------


5. (C) Meanwhile, a rumor is sweeping the province that
Yousif Majid al-Haboubi -- who, with 13.3 percent of the
vote, finished first in the balloting -- has agreed to join
forces with Da'wa. That we have heard this rumor from
contacts in Ayn al-Tamr (western),Karbala City (central) and
al-Hindiyah (eastern) portions of the province testifies to
its ubiquity and, perhaps to its plausibility. Karbalans
Qits ubiquity and, perhaps to its plausibility. Karbalans
understandably are apt to regard most politicians as
self-serving opportunists. Al-Haboubi, by contrast, had been
widely regarded as the anti-establishment candidate, and his
support at the polls interpreted as a repudiation of the
religious parties and their failure to deliver on their
promises. Though a former Ba'athist official here, he
nevertheless was esteemed for being a decent person, one who,
moreover, got things done.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Clearly stung by Da'wa's humiliation at the polls, its
leaders are taking no prisoners in their quest to remain
politically dominant. Aqeel and some of his confreres do not
lack for charm (or money),and we anticipate they will
succeed in forming a tactical alliance to repel attempts by

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ISCI to increase its toehold here. The open question is how
faithful Da'wa's newfound friends will prove to be beyond the
short term. ISCI, which came in fourth place with 6.4
percent, also has resources (again, money),and al-Haboubi
may yet emerge as a truly independent voice. In the
landscape of shifting allegiances and strange bedfellows that
is Karbala politics, uncertainty is the only thing for
certain. End comment.
CROCKER