ELECTION DATE TO BE FIXED FOR MARCH 6

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003161

SIPDIS

NSC FOR PHEE, VROOMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2029
TAGS: POL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION DATE TO BE FIXED FOR MARCH 6

REF: BAGHDAD 3157

Classified By: Political Counselor Yuri Kim for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Despite assurances early on December 8 from advisors
to the Presidency Council's members that elections would take
place on February 27, Reuters reported late in the day that
the date would instead be fixed for March 6. (Note: Under
Iraqi law, the Presidency Council - President Talabani, VP
Hashimi and VP al-Mehdi - is tasked with determining the
election date after consulting with the Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC). End note.) Nasser al-Ani, Chief
of Staff for the Presidency Council, later confirmed to
Deputy PolCouns that the elections would be held on March 6
and said a decision to that effect would be signed and
announced on December 9, with letters to be sent to IHEC and
the Council of Representatives (COR). When pressed on the
reason for the change, he said February 27, the date proposed
by UNAMI and initially agreed to by members of the Presidency
Council and COR, had only been "a suggested date" and that
more time was needed to "properly prepare" for the elections.


2. (C) Separately, contacts at UNAMI told Poloff that IHEC
met with the Presidency Council on December 8 and advised its
members they were ready to stage elections as early as
February 24. IHEC commissioners told UNAMI that Hashimi
pushed hard for February 27; however, Talabani and al-Mehdi
insisted on March 6. The Presidency Council consulted PM
Maliki, who supported March 6, ostensibly because it would
give him more time to move security forces after the Ashura
holiday. (Note: IHEC's Shi'a commissioners noted for UNAMI
that Ashura would not in fact be over by March 6 and believed
it offered a convenient pretext for moving the date to March

6. End note.) Talabani argued that snow in northern (i.e.,
Kurdish) regions could negatively impact voter turnout; the
delay would help ensure fairer weather. (Comment: A dubious
argument since provincial elections were held in January 2009
and national elections in December 2005. End comment.)
Talabani and al-Mehdi also argued that the additional time
would help facilitate out-of-country voting, a claim IHEC and
UNAMI say is unsubstantiated by any technical reason. IHEC
commissioners told UNAMI contacts it appeared the date of
March 6 had been determined before their briefing to the
Presidency Council.
HILL