PM MALIKI ON THE ELECTION LAW, INVESTMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002751

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2019
TAGS: PREL KDEM PHUM PGOV KREF EPET PTER IR SY IZ
SUBJECT: PM MALIKI ON THE ELECTION LAW, INVESTMENT
CONFERENCE AND THE MEK

REF: BAGHDAD 2731

Classified By: Ambassador Christopher H. Hill for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. In an October 9 meeting with the
Ambassador, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki asked the
Ambassador to help stave off efforts in the COR to
remove the Independent High Electoral Commission
(IHEC) Chairman for fear it could dissolve the
entire organization and possibly lead to a delay of
national elections. Maliki stated that he would
appeal to Ayatollah Sistani to issue a statement
supporting an on-time election. The PM also said
his attendance at the upcoming Investment Conference
depends on COR passage in the coming days of an
amendment to the investment law. The PM expressed
optimism that an agreement would be signed with
ExxonMobil for the West Qurna field soon. Maliki
agreed to postpone any effort to relocate the MEK to
allow the USG and UNAMI to put together a plan for
resettlement of eligible camp residents outside
Iraq. The PM urged the Ambassador to support Iraq's
rights to water on his upcoming trip to Basra, which
has been hard hit by a water crisis. Regarding the
reconciliation initiative on the Ninewa Provincial
Council, the PM said he hoped these would be
successful. END SUMMARY.


IHEC and the Election Law
--------------


2. (C) PM Maliki expressed his dismay about some
political parties pressing to remove the IHEC
Chairman Faraj al-Haydari. Maliki warned that
removal of Haydari at this time could lead to
dissolution of the whole commission and possible
delays in the January election timetable. He
cautioned that any election delay could leave Iraq
stuck with a caretaker government, leaving it open
to meddling from malicious groups. Maliki said he
preferred to address IHEC's shortcomings -- or any
disciplinary action against its members -- after the
national elections. Maliki said he has asked UNAMI
to issue a statement to the effect that the removal
of the IHEC Chair would cause a delay the elections.
(Note: The statement was released October 11. End
Note.) Maliki sad he would urge Ayatollah Sistani
to issue a statement calling for national elections
to be held on time.


3. (C) Maliki judged that the Kurds would oppose
any motion against IHEC. He added that members of
ISCI (Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq) were behind
the push for al-Haydari's removal. However,
according to Maliki, ISCI/Badr faction leader Hadi
al-Amiri does not support this effort. (Note: Hadi
al-Amiri is known to have a tense relationship with
new ISCI head Ammar al-Hakim. End Note.) Maliki
related that Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) members
predict that a move against IHEC will lead to its
dissolution. He urged the Ambassador to speak with
IIP and ISCI to ensure they will not force this IHEC
issue and use it to delay the elections.


4. (C) Turning to the mechanics of passing an
election law, Maliki said he discussed with all the
party bloc leaders the need to amend the 2005 law to
allow for open lists. In addition, Maliki expressed
the hope that, when the bill comes up for a vote,
the COR would use its open electronic voting system;
he cautioned that an anonymous vote could tempt
lawmakers to push through a closed list system
(which he added could in turn lead to better job
security for themselves) as well as dissolution of
IHEC.

Investment Conference
QInvestment Conference
--------------


5. (C) The Ambassador informed the PM that over 250
U.S. companies will attend the upcoming U.S.-Iraq
Investment Conference in Washington, including top
oil companies. In this context, Maliki predicted
that an agreement between ExxonMobil and the GOI
could be signed soon. Maliki expressed concern,
however, about the COR's plans to question Minister
of Oil Hussein Shahristani about the oil process.

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Maliki reported that Deputy Speaker Khalid Attiyah
and Speaker Ayad Sammarraie promised a COR vote on
the investment law amendment on October 13. The PM
added that if the amendment passed, he would attend
the conference and said he hoped the President and
Vice President could take part, even if only
symbolically.

MEK -- Action Delayed
--------------


6. (C) Turning to the MEK issue, the Ambassador
pressed Maliki to exercise restraint and to allow
the international community to devise possible
solutions to the problem. Maliki agreed to delay
action for two months to allow the UN and others to
get engaged in finding a solution. The PM
acknowledged that this is the first time in six
years that there has been a concerted effort on the
MEK and thanked the Ambassador for the United
States' attention to this issue and for securing UN
involvement. Maliki cautioned, however, that after
the two months pass, the GOI will proceed with its
plans to dismantle Ashraf and relocate its
residents.

Ninewa Reconciliation Efforts
--------------


7. (C) On Arab-Kurd tensions, PM Maliki said he
supports ongoing efforts at reconciliation but
expressed disappointment that Deputy Prime Minister
Rafi al-Issawi's efforts in Ninewa have yielded very
modest results. Maliki charged that Governor Atheel
al-Nujaifi is "pushing on the north wall of the
Kurds." He said he supports a temporary solution of
Iraqi Army (IA) and Peshmerga under the Ninewa
Operations Command (NOC) with U.S. forces playing an
oversight or monitoring role. (Note: There are no
joint security checkpoints at this time.
Exploratory discussion are ongoing. End Note)
Maliki said it was shortsighted of the Sunnis and
Turkomen to reject the security plans for Mosul and Kirkuk.
He also
reported that he recently saw a delegation of Mosul
sheikhs who were against replacing Peshmerga in
their areas with other forces. Maliki said he is
unclear as to why the relationship between Sheikh
Abdullah and Atheel al-Nujaifi has been so
difficult, but added he believes that Sheikh
Abdullah has "all the power." The PM was
not willing to get between the two. "Let them work
it out amongst themselves," he said. (Comment:
Maliki's downbeat assessment contradicts what we
have heard directly from interlocutors (al-Nujaifi
and Sinjari) about the utility and success to date
of Issawi's mediation efforts (reftel). It is not
clear whether Maliki's information about the status
of the mediation is different, or whether he is
perhaps casting Issawi's efforts in a more negative
light for political purposes. End Comment.)

Kirkuk and "Ninewa Wall"
--------------


8. (C) With respect to Kirkuk and the Sunnis'
demand for the withdrawal of Kurdish intelligence
forces, the Assayesh, Maliki acknowledged that the
Assayesh are a source of tension and that there
should not be two security organizations operating
in the same area. As for the recent law enforcement
sweep in Mosul ("Ninewa Wall"),Maliki insisted that
the operation was very precise and symbolized Iraq's
effort to fight AQI and Ba'ath party elements. He
added, "Syria finds angry Ba'ath parties in Mosul to
exploit." In response to the Ambassador's comment
that many of the detainees netted in the operation
have already been released, the PM said only that
sometimes the evidence does not pan out.
Qsometimes the evidence does not pan out.

Ambassador's Trip to Basra
--------------


9. (C) Maliki said he hoped that the Ambassador
could make public statements in support of Iraq's
rights to water during the Ambassador's upcoming
trip to Basra. The PM said that the Minister of
Municipalities will travel to California to seek
expert technical assistance from U.S. scientists.

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Maliki said he is hopeful that GOI will explore
Sammara and territories near Saudi Arabia for
underground water and added that there may also be
water deposits under Mosul. Maliki blamed the COR
for rejecting an allocation of funds needed to
investigate alternative water sources. He commented
that the current irrigation systems waste water and
Iraq needs foreign expertise on how to use it
wisely.
HILL