Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD1997
2009-07-24 13:25:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

KIRKUK THREATENS TO DERAIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

Tags:  IZ KDEM PGOV 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO5724
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #1997/01 2051325
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 241325Z JUL 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4065
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001997 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2019
TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV
SUBJECT: KIRKUK THREATENS TO DERAIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
LAW

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1921

B. BAGHDAD 1475

C. BAGHDAD 1964

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert Ford for reason 1.4(d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001997

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2019
TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV
SUBJECT: KIRKUK THREATENS TO DERAIL PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
LAW

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1921

B. BAGHDAD 1475

C. BAGHDAD 1964

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Robert Ford for reason 1.4(d).


1. (C) Summary: After three weeks of slow but steady
technical progress, opportunistic politicians have slowed the
momentum of efforts to draft a new national parliamentary
elections law by introducing a fresh debate on the status of
Kirkuk (Ref A). These actors -- members of the former July
22 group that derailed the provincial elections law exactly
one year ago -- seek to link progress on national elections
legislation to solutions for long-standing disputes over
provincial governance in Kirkuk. In an effort to break the
deadlock on Kirkuk and to help ensure adoption of a national
election law before Parliament adjourns at the end of July,
UNAMI conveyed a letter to parliamentary leaders on July 18
outlining options on how to deal with Kirkuk in the national
elections. The linkage of the election bill to the
controversial issue of Kirkuk risks the progress that has
been made to date. Poloffs are pushing both Iraqis and the
UNAMI Electoral Assistance Team to find a formula that will
enable Parliament to pass a law that will ensure that
elections are held on time in January 2010. End Summary.

--------------
Many Proposals, No Solutions
--------------


2. (C) New proposals on how to administer voting in Kirkuk
appeared immediately after vicious arguments over the
disputed province derailed the Parliament subcommittee tasked
with drafting a new elections law. Some politicians are now
using the debate over elections to advance matters that were
not resolved by the now-moribund Article 23 Committee (Ref
B). The effort to link governance of the Kirkuk with the
national elections debate is clear in a petition that MP Omar
Jabouri of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) recently circulated
in the Parliament and which was signed by 51 Arab and
Turcomen MPs. The Arab/Turcomen petition calls for Kirkuk's
provincial elections to be held concurrently with national
parliamentary elections under a special transitional law. It
is centered around the proposal that, on a transitional
basis, Kirkuk should be divided into four constituencies with
seats being distributed equally among Arabs, Kurds, Turcomen,

and others. Apparently this plan would be in place only
until the work of the Article 23 Committee can be resolved.
Another leading member of the petitioning group, Mohammed
Tamim, said that the Speaker had assured him in private
conversation that Parliament would be allowed to vote on
consideration of this petition as early as July 23. The
Kurds do not support the proposal because they prefer a
standard vote in Kirkuk that will, in their assessment,
demonstrate a Kurdish majority in this disputed province.
(Note: The Arab/Turcomen proposal resembles a 2008 provincial
election law that the Kurds opposed and that President
Talabani ultimately vetoed. End Note.)


3. (C) Parliament Speaker Iyad Samarrai seems interested in
finding a solution to Article 23, perhaps through a "special
law" that would allow concurrent provincial and national
elections in Kirkuk (Ref C). In a recent meeting with
Ambassador Hill, Samarrai indicated that a quota-based
solution for Kirkuk might be the best option, though he
expected the Kurds to oppose the proposal and sought U.S.
pressure on the Kurds to support it. On July 20, First
Deputy Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Khalid Attiya told
Poloffs that he was not optimistic that the Kirkuk question
would be quickly solved, and he attributed the cause to the
Qwould be quickly solved, and he attributed the cause to the
lack of progress by the Article 23 Committee. Attiya also
told Poloffs that a group of Arab, Turcomen, and Kurdish
representatives met to discuss the issue of how to allocate
Kirkuk,s 13 parliamentary representatives Attiya complained
that the Arab and Turcomen sides were exaggerating their
claims to gain political points before the national election,
spurring on Kurdish intransigence. Poloffs emphasized to the
Deputy Speaker that the Parliament needs to find solutions
that will keep the elections law moving forward.

--------------
UNAMI Weighs the Options
--------------


4. (C) On July 19, UNAMI delivered to Speaker Samarrai a
technical analysis of some of the proposed solutions for the
Kirkuk issue. The UNAMI Electoral Assistance Team prepared
the letter in an attempt to keep the effort toward a national
elections law on track. The letter contained major
recommendations, as well as a proposal. First, UNAMI
recommends against the exclusion of Kirkuk from a national
election in 2010, an idea suggested by some who wanted to

BAGHDAD 00001997 002 OF 002


circumvent arguments by simply delaying national elections in
Kirkuk. UNAMI argued that excluding Kirkuk in a national
parliamentary election would effectively disenfranchise an
entire governorate from the Parliament and violate the spirit
and the intent of the Iraqi Constitution. Next, UNAMI argued
against the idea of dividing Kirkuk into additional districts
for the purposes of the national election -- an action
suggested by the Arab/Turcomen petition. From a technical
standpoint, UNAMI warns that dividing Kirkuk into districts
would require a boundary delimitation exercise and a separate
voter registration process, both of which are too time
consuming to be practical for a January election date. In
its third recommendation, UNAMI advises against a
power-sharing agreement for the distribution of Kirkuk,s
seats in the Parliament, emphasizing that there is not enough
time to prepare separate voters lists to facilitate and
implement such an arrangement. UNAMI adds that implementing
a power sharing scheme for representatives of Kirkuk in the
Parliament would not affect governance in Kirkuk as
immediately as power sharing at the provincial level.


5. (C) In the letter to the Speaker, UNAMI endorses the
inclusion of Kirkuk in the national parliamentary elections
as "the most practical and technically feasible option at
this late date." UNAMI also recommends that one voter
registry be used to conduct the January national
parliamentary elections. However, recognizing the challenges
of the special circumstances in Kirkuk, including a very high
level of mistrust among the players, UNAMI suggests that the
Independent High Electoral Commission, with the support of
UNAMI, could incorporate new confidence-building measures to
increase the transparency of voter registration in Kirkuk.
Such measures might include extending the period during which
challenges and complaints related to voter registration can
be filed by political parties; sharing copies of the voter
lists with certified political entities in Kirkuk;
encouraging representation of all ethnicities at each of
Kirkuk's voter registration centers; and enhancing daily
reporting on the voter registration update by IHEC. In its
overall position, UNAMI does not suggest that voter
registration in Kirkuk be used as a determinant of residency
in Kirkuk.

--------------
Initial Reactions
--------------


6. (C) Sandra Mitchell, chief of UNAMI's Electoral
Assistance Team, shared some initial reactions to the UNAMI
proposal with Poloff. After meeting with Omar Jabouri, she
reported that he seemed uncertain about how, exactly, power
sharing in Kirkuk would be implemented per the Arab/Turcomen
petition he circulated. When she asked him for a map that
would illustrate how to divide Kirkuk into four districts, he
reacted with surprise. When she explained the technical
challenges to implementing a separate voter list in Kirkuk,
only then did he seem to understand that it would not be a
simple undertaking. As the conversation continued, it was
Mitchell's assessment that Jabouri's intention is to reserve
the allotment of seats in Kirkuk evenly among Kurds, Arabs,
and Turcomen with minorities picking up the rest. Mitchell
reports that, from a technical perspective, this proposal can
be implemented -- e.g., by quotas assigned along ethnic
constituencies -- so long as there is no attempt to add to or
change the single, nationwide voter list. Poloffs have
expressed strong support to UNAMI for its practical
solutions, and have encouraged Mitchell to keep engaging with
Qsolutions, and have encouraged Mitchell to keep engaging with
Jabouri and others to address their concerns through options
that will not delay the electoral timeline.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) Parliament's Legal Committee is currently amending
the 2005 law and hopes to submit it before recess.
Parliament will likely adjourn at the end of July for a
probable month-long break; this would leave very little time
for a vote. It is unlikely Parliament will hold an
extraordinary session in August. This reemergence of the
bitter dispute over Kirkuk and the identity of the Iraqi
state is jeopardizing credible and timely national elections
-- elections that Iraqi politicians understand will alter the
balance of power in the parliament and central government.
Poloffs continue to engage with a broad cross-section of MPs
and party bloc leaders to encourage MPs to increase
cooperation with the aim of passing a law that will ensure
January elections.
FORD