RRT ERBIL: LOCAL REACTIONS TO KURDISTAN REGION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001801

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/05/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: LOCAL REACTIONS TO KURDISTAN REGION
CONSTITUTION

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1800

B. BAGHDAD 1799

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Peter Vrooman for reasons 1.4
(b).

This is an RRT Erbil reporting cable.


1. (C) Summary. Public opposition to the newly-passed
Kurdistan Region Constitution is primarily being voiced by
the Change List, although intellectuals inside and outside of
the parties view many articles as problematic. Journalists
and physicians outside the parties have also publicly opposed
the document. However, the majority of voters can be
expected to vote in favor. End Summary.


2. (C) RRT Offs have sought out reactions to the Kurdistan
Region Constitution, with contacts in Sulaimaniyah, Erbil and
Dohuk. Views can be divided into three categories: the views
of the average voter, the views of the intellectuals who
follow political affairs, and the views of the opposition
political parties and figures.

The Average Voter
--------------


3. (C) Kurdistanis understand that the Iraqi Constitution
calls for the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to pass its
own constitution. They are also aware that a regional
constitution has been discussed in the Iraqi Kurdistani
Parliament (IKP) for many years. They are not conversant
with all of the articles of the Iraqi Constitution, and are
not overly concerned that there may be discrepancies between
the two documents. They may associate the passage of the
constitution with political campaign that is in full swing,
and understand that President Barzani will point to the
constitution as a long-overdue confirmation of the region's
rights and responsibilities. They would support the
assertion that the areas falling within the disputed internal
boundaries are historically and geographically part of "Iraqi
Kurdistan" (this is how the KRG is described in the new
constitution) as a statement of fact.

The Intellectuals
--------------


4. (C) The views of the intellectuals who follow political
issues are best expressed by PUK leader Fareed Assard.
Assard is a member of the PUK Leadership Committee and head
of a PUK think tank. As a member of a committee formed by
the KRG to study the constitution, he had recommended against
naming the disputed areas in earlier discussions of the draft
constitution. Assard sees the Constitution as legally
ambiguous and undemocratic. According to him, there is a
conflict between whether the political system is
parliamentarian or presidential, with the President being
given such powers as the authority to dissolve parliament.
Also, unlike the Iraqi Constitution, which places the Iraqi
armed forces under the control of the Prime Minister, the
Kurdistan Region Constitution gives that control over the
Peshmerga to the KRG President.


5. (C) On the article naming disputed areas as "historically
and geographically" part of Iraqi Kurdistan, Assard believes
that this will tie the hands of future negotiators
determining the status of disputed territories. If one of
these areas were not to become part of the Kurdistan Region
through the Article 140 process it could be considered a
"betrayal" of the constitution, thereby raising the level of
tension between the Government of Iraq and the KRG. And
finally, Assard believes that the Parliament's term had
expired when it convened to vote on the constitution, and the
constitution is thus illegal.


6. (C) Dr. Nouri Talabany, an independent member of
Parliament, and responsible for casting the lone "no" vote on
June 24, explained his concern that the constitution places
too much power in the Presidency. Dr. Talabany had resigned
Qtoo much power in the Presidency. Dr. Talabany had resigned
from the IKP drafting committee in late 2008 to protest the
direction that the draft was heading and the interference by
the political parties in the process.

Views of the Opposition and Minority Parties
--------------


7. (C) Islamic opposition parties (part of a four-party
coalition) can be expected to claim victory to their
followers in having achieved last minute changes to the
constitution which bring it in line with the Iraqi
Constitution concerning Islam as the source of law. They
will support a "yes" vote. However, Bazi Saeed, Head of the
Dohuk Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) office confirmed that the

Islamic parties had not, in fact, achieved all of their
desired changes to the constitution. Many of their concerns
are the same as those of the Change List. Of the many
changes that the Islamic parties had proposed to President
Barzani, only two were accepted. Sulaimaniyah Governor Dana
informed IPAO that he understood that President Talabani had
told the four parties to ensure support for a "yes" vote or
risk having their stipends cut. (Comment: All political
parties with members in the IKP receive a stipend from the
KRG. End comment).


8. (C) Christian leaders )) while undoubtedly unhappy over
last minute concessions to the Islamic groups )- will also
support the constitution, given the very positive language in
the Constitution as far as religious freedom and autonomy for
minorities.


9. (C) The Change List, led by Nawshirwan Mustafa, has seized
upon the constitution as a campaign issue, and is asking for
it to be redrafted. According to Dr. Shaho Saeed, the
official spokesman of the Change List, the Change List
considers the IKP to have been an illegal parliament and
passage of the constitution a dangerous precedent. According
to him, the new constitution "illegally" allows the President
to extend his term by two more terms. The authority and the
power given to the President are "absolute." The authority
and power given to the President are "absolute" because of
the President's ability to dissolve the IKP and command the
armed forces. Furthermore, the constitution "lays mines"
between the central government and the KRG. Finally, the
Iraqi Constitution calls for decentralization; the Kurdistan
Region Constitution centralizes authority. (Comment: The new
Kurdistan Region Constitution is silent on the question of
Provincial Councils, although it does discuss local councils.
End comment).

Constitution as a Campaign Issue
--------------


10. (C) There are divergent views within the Change List as
to the campaign strategy. According to Hishyar Abid, Head of
the Change List in Dohuk, campaigning against the
constitution will "set Nawshirwan up to failure" and will not
be well understood by voters. Supporting this view, President
Barzani's Chief of Staff, Dr. Fuad Hussein, told RRT Team
Leader that the Change List's decision to campaign against
the constitution was a gift to the PUK/KDP coalition. He
stated that prior to this strategy shift, he had thought that
the Change List might garner as many as 15 votes. But the
new strategy would not be understood by the average voter:
Dr. Fuad predicted now that the Change List would only
receive enough votes for ten seats.

Groups Outside of Government Oppose the Document
-------------- ---


11. (U) Kurdistani newspaper Rozhnama reports that more than
50 journalists in Erbil expressed opposition to the
constitution. Rozhnama also reported that 174 physicians
issued a joint statement criticizing the parliamentary
process by which the constitution was passed in the IKP
(likely alluding to the extension of the current IKP session
from June 4). Both groups called for further public
consultation before holding a referendum on the constitution.


Comment
--------------


12. (C) The last-minute passage of the constitution has set
off an intense debate among a certain class of Kurdistanis,
but a majority of Kurdistan Region voters can be expected to
respond to the appeal of the President to vote in favor of
the document, if it is put to a referendum. End Comment.
HILL