RRT ERBIL: "CHANGE" IS AFOOT IN DOHUK, BUT ARRIVES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 001706

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2019
TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV IR
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: "CHANGE" IS AFOOT IN DOHUK, BUT ARRIVES
LATE IN THE KRG ELECTION SEASON

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1473

B. BAGHDAD 1170

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Fox for reason 1.4 (d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) In preparation for the Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament
(IKP) elections planned for July 25, Nawshirwan Mustafa's
party -- the Change list -- has finally established a
presence in Dohuk, the northernmost province of the Kurdistan
Region. So far, the Change list has found a lukewarm
reception in the province. Contacts cite late arrival of the
Change message, the Kurdistan Democratic Party's (KDP)
dominant position in the province and the "wall of fear and
silence" that characterizes Dohuk,s political culture, as
factors that undermine opposition parties. There are reports
that local KRG security forces are intimidating Change list
supporters; observers expect this will intensify as the
campaigning continues (see reftels). RRTOff learned that
while Dohuk leaders of the Change list are optimistic about
their prospects, others from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) members (including youth league members) question
whether the Change list will win many seats, if any, in
Dohuk. End Summary.

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"A Peshmerga Sent into Battle with a Broken Gun"
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2. (SBU) Although Dohuk has always been a Kurdistan
Democratic Party (KDP)-dominated province, Hishyar Abid, head
of the Change list in Dohuk, joined the Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan (PUK) shortly after it was established. He served
as a PUK Peshmerga from 1978 until 1985, after which he left
the KRG for the United Kingdom. Abid lived in the UK until
one month ago, when he was asked by former PUK Deputy General
Secretary Nawshirwan Mustafa, the head of the Change List
party in the KRG, to serve as lead organizer for the movement
in Dohuk (Comment: Abid is not running for office in the
IKP election. End Comment). Kamirwan Barwari, Abid,s
"teammate in this effort" is a professor of Political Science
at the University of Dohuk. Barwari is well-known in Dohuk
for his nonconformist views. Most recently, he attracted
unwanted attention from the KDP for commenting to local press
outlet "Sbeiy" that it was "unbelievable that there were not
nine or ten good presidential candidates" for the upcoming
election. Together, the two men are charged with building a
base for the Change party list in Dohuk -- a task that both
believe to be a steep uphill climb.


3. (SBU) Abid acknowledges that the Change list came late
to Dohuk and was not well factored into Nawshirwan,s plan
(Note: the Change list party just established an office in
Dohuk in May. End Note). He says that this was because Dohuk
has a special status as a "private garden" of the KDP, and
that KDP has always been a Stalinist party with a very rigid
hierarchy and no tolerance for internal dissent. Abid says
that no other political parties have ever been able to
develop real support, and that while their existence is
permitted, they have only been able to operate within limits.
As such it is his view that the Change list is entering a
"locked territory," and that they are an unwelcome intrusion.
For the same reasons, Barwari said, the democratic tradition
in Dohuk has always been weak and freedom of self-expression
has always been harshly repressed. He added, "More than any
other province (in the KRG),Dohuk is in the greatest need
for democratic change."


4. (SBU) According to Abid, another reason for the Change
list's late arrival in Dohuk is the fact that Nawshirwan did
Qlist's late arrival in Dohuk is the fact that Nawshirwan did
not have a network of trusted people in Dohuk, which limited
his ability to build a base early in the process. Abid
admits that Change did not take advantage of many early
opportunities to sell their message and so characterizes
himself, the newly-appointed messenger, as "a Peshmerga who
was sent into battle with a broken gun." Nawshirwan did not
choose any Dohuk residents for the top ten positions on the
Change list, sending the message that Change does not really
prioritize having Dohuk included in the among its IKP
representatives. Further, the press coverage of
Nawshirwan,s message is almost exclusively in Sorani
Kurdish. Dohuk is Bahdini Kurdish speaking. He lamented
that the few stories that are translated into Bahdini Kurdish
are not about Dohuk. Nonetheless, Abid believes that this
election will be foundation of a much greater role for Change
in Dohuk and the wider Iraq. "There will be other elections
in Kurdistan. We must also not forget that there are almost
1.5 million Kurds in Baghdad, most of whom do not like the
KDP or PUK." Abid predicts that future parliamentary

elections, in which he says that Change list has definite
plans to participate, will be a "big win for Change."


5. (SBU) So far, Abid says, he and other Dohuk Change list
organizers have not been aggressively targeted by local
security. But other Dohuk supporters also report being
harassed, often called to appear at their nearest KDP office
and justify their activities "where the mere implication of
the threat of what could happen next is enough to cause the
person to reconsider their actions." One supporter, who
resigned from his position as a bodyguard member for an
influential member of the KDP, was detained by the Asaish for
20 days due to his activities in support of the Change list.
Abid said that the man's family was reportedly so afraid of
additional persecution that they refused to provide Change
with any information with which to assist an investigation
into their son's case. When asked for an estimation of the
number of Change list supporters in Dohuk, Abid said that
without intimidation, fear and vote rigging, Change would
receive roughly 50,000-60,000 votes (primarily from within
the intellectual community.) But since Abid is certain that
all of this and more will factor into this election, the
number of votes Change will actually receive from Dohuk is
unknown. (Comment: According to IHEC, there are 556,673
registered voters in Dohuk.)


6. (SBU) Abid relayed to RRTOff a conversation he had with
Nawshirwan on his plans to rectify the imbalance in
provincial resource allocation that has disadvantaged Dohuk
(relative to Erbil and Sulaimaniyah) since the end of the
PUK-KDP civil war. Abid said that Nawshirwan agreed that the
KRG should make equal treatment of, and improved service
delivery to all of three provinces a priority, and that
Nawshirwan has a program to facilitate that goal. Abid said
that Nawshirwan further noted that there were many examples
of very well-administered democratic countries comprised of a
plurality of ethnicities and languages (e.g., Switzerland),
and said that there was no reason why Kurdistan could not be
a diverse but well-administered region, as well.

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PUK Establishment on Nawshirwan: Snowball's Chance in Dohuk
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7. (SBU) Salar Doski, Head of the Dohuk Branch of the PUK,
believes that Abid's estimation of the number of Nawshirwan
supporters in Dohuk is unrealistic. Doski estimates that
Nawshirwan will only win 8-10 seats in the IKP, and that no
appreciable percentage of the votes he receives will come
from Dohuk voters. Doski said that people in Dohuk and Erbil
do not like Nawshirwan because they remember when he was a
PUK Peshmerga; he also claimed that people from Dohuk believe
that Nawshirwan does not care to know what they think. Doski
opined that the Change list party would have been better
received if it were launched immediately after the (1991)
Uprising. In his view, many people now have developed a
vested interest in the existing system, so it will be
difficult for Change to convince them to sacrifice their
individual interests for a reformed system.


8. (SBU) The PUK Youth League in Dohuk seemed a bit more
optimistic about Nawshirwan's prospects, but were no more
convinced that he would win many seats from Dohuk. In a
recent meeting, the youth league informed RRTOff that many
university students in Dohuk seem excited about Nawshirwan's
message. The 15 youth league members in attendance also
believed that, even if he did not win a majority of the
Qbelieved that, even if he did not win a majority of the
seats, Nawshirwan's presence in the IKP would push the two
major parties (PUK and KDP) to work harder to improve public
administration. When asked for an estimate of the number of
seats they thought he would win in the IKP (KRG-wide),
numbers ranged from 8 to 20. But when asked whether the
Change list had broad appeal in Dohuk, the youth league
members thought it did not. One extremely skeptical student
said, "He says that he is for change, but he was the number
two in the PUK for many years. If he did not make change
then, why will he make change now?"

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Comment
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9. (C) Contacts in Dohuk identify very real barriers to the
Change list's message in the Province. With a long history
of exclusion from political and economic development, the
people of Dohuk seem even less likely to support a candidate
whose campaign attentions seem limited to Sulaimaniyah.
Conversely, a candidate who truly conveyed an intention to
treat the three provinces equally and to unite the KRG in
more than name only could likely give the political
establishment quite a run for their money. It appears that
Change list is making great efforts to be cast as the latter.

In recent days, Change says that it has made great in-roads
with tribal leaders and with the traditionally
disenfranchised, such as the rural area populations of Dohuk
who live furthest from resources and political empowerment.
The RRT has also received anecdotal reports that ongoing
protests in Iran have emboldened Kurdistanis to view their
own upcoming election more critically.


10. (C) It is still too early to determine whether the
Change message has arrived too late to convince Dohuk,s
voters. The candidate for whom Dohuk votes will not only be
an expression of their ideological sympathies on the day of
the election, but of their fears of what will happen on the
day after, as well. The jobs, socio-economic benefits and
daily quality of life of hundreds of thousands of Kurdistani
voters currently depend an intricate system of patronage that
has been designed and maintained by the same KDP-PUK alliance
and dominance that the Change list seeks to shake up.
Voters, fears of losing access to this social safety net,
combined with very real concerns of intimidation and voter
fraud, complicate any attempt to predict how many Dohuk votes
will be counted for Change on decision day. End Comment.
FORD