NINEWA: VICE GOVERNOR CLAIMS KDP WILL WIN A

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA: VICE GOVERNOR CLAIMS KDP WILL WIN A
PLURALITY DESPITE DISENFRANCHISEMENT OF KURDISH IDPS

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Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Robert S. Ford.
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message.


1. (C) Summary: Vice Governor and KDP leader in Ninewa
Province, Khasro Goran, said the KDP is deeply concerned that
hundreds of thousands of Kurdish IDPs from before and after
2003 will not be able to vote in provincial elections. Goran
said that, despite disenfranchisement of Kurdish IDPs, KDP
will win a plurality of votes in the January 31 provincial
election. Without firmly committing the KDP to any formal
post-election alliance to form a working majority in the new
Provincial Council, Goran said that Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)
leader in Ninewa Mohammad Shaker would not be a "terrible
choice" for governor. End Summary.

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KDP OBSTACLES IN NINEWA
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2. (C) On January 8, PMIN met VGOV Goran at KDP headquarters
in Mosul. Goran began by saying that IDP voting was a major
concern for the KDP and the coalition it is a part of, the
Ninewa Fraternity List (NFL). According to Goran, there are
130,000 displaced Ninewa Kurds in Dohuk and 50,000 in Erbil.
Goran said that many of those IDPs were forced out during the
reign of Saddam Hussein era and still had valid ration cards
for Ninewa. Legally, Goran said, anyone with a valid ration
card for Ninewa had a right to vote in Ninewa. (Note: The
voters roll in each province is compiled from the records of
the PDS, or "ration cards," as administered by the Ministry
of Trade. Voters had the opportunity to confirm their
registration on the IHEC voter's list during a registration
update period in August 2008. If they want to vote at one of
the special IDP polling centers, they must be on the MoDM
list of registered IDPs. End note.)


3. (C) Goran also said the rivals of the KDP/NFL are in
league with foreign intelligence agencies and/or terrorists.
According to Goran, Turkish intelligence is supporting the
Iraqi Turkmen Front (ITF),Syrian intelligence is helping
former Ba'ath party members, and Iranian intelligence is
helping to further Syria's interests in Ninewa. In addition,
Goran said that some of the parties competing in the
elections are partners with the terrorists.


4. (C) Goran also said that Sunni Arab political entity
Al-Hadba, which is led by Atheel al-Najaifi, is responsible
for Article 50 of the Provincial Elections Law, which he said
effectively disenfranchised the minorities of Ninewa.
According to Goran, Al-Hadba was able to work with Sunni Arab
allies in Baghdad to design Article 50 in such a way that
minority representation would be significantly reduced.
Goran pointed to the large number of minorities on the
National Fraternity List to demonstrate the KDP stands for
protecting the rights of all the province's minorities.

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POST-ELECTION ALLIANCES
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5. (C) Goran predicted the NFL would capture the most votes,
but no one party would win an absolute majority in the
elections. For that reason it will be essential for parties
to form post-election partnerships, Goran said. Goran also
said that IIP leader Shaker would be an "okay" governor and
was entirely preferable to Najaifi. Goran said that the NFL
also would most likely partner with the winners of the three
seats specially reserved for minorities; Iyad Allawi's
Iraqiyya list; and other "small parties." Goran said that,
QIraqiyya list; and other "small parties." Goran said that,
after the NFL, Al-Hadba would probably take the second
highest number of votes, adding that Hadba counts 70-80,000
former Ba'athists among its supporters. After Hadba, Goran
said IIP, the Iraqi Supreme Council for Islam and Salih
Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue would also perform
well in elections.

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SECURITY AND ARTICLE 140
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6. (C) Goran said that security is the KDP/NFL's number one
priority in the province and that it can only be stabilized
once the disputed internal boundaries issues are solved.
According to Goran, there were another 116 murders in Mosul
in December. Goran said that thousands of civilians have
been killed since 2003 and tens of thousands have left.

7.(C) PMIN underlined that any type of threats, intimidation,

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or violence was detrimental to the elections. He noted that
we had heard of problems in locales like Sinjar and Zumar.
PMIN said that if the KDP is the target of threats or
violence, it should report these to the IHEC, the police and
the Embassy. PMIN said that he sympathized with the plight
of the Saddam era IDPs but that by law it was too late to
adjust the voters roll.

CROCKER