MOMENTUM BUILDS TO DELAY SECURITY AGREEMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001600

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/19/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV SA
SUBJECT: MOMENTUM BUILDS TO DELAY SECURITY AGREEMENT

REFERENDUM

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1542

B. BAGHDAD 1520

C. BAGHDAD 1498

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor John Fox for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Momentum for a Security Agreement (SA)
referendum in July is diminishing, with Iraqi political
leaders telling us a consensus favors delaying action on a
referendum law. The Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC)
stated that it needs 60 days to organize a referendum
following enactment of a law and budget, which would make it
impossible for the vote to take place by July 31. It is
still difficult for politicians - particularly Sunni Arabs -
to publicly oppose the referendum, but our sense is that
there is little appetite to move forward now with the
required legislation. However, there is still talk of holding
the referendum concurrently with national elections in
January. End Summary.


2. (C) Following the Cabinet's June 9 statement expressing
the desire to postpone the SA referendum, momentum appears to
be building for a delay. Deputy Speaker of Parliament Khalid
al-Attiya told us June 16 that there is a consensus among
Iraqi political blocs to delay action on a referendum law
until after June 30. That would permit the government to
claim that the U.S. withdrawal from cities is going well and
that there is no urgency to press forward with the
referendum. As noted ref A, Vice President Abdul-Mahdi made
similar comments in support of delaying the referendum until
national elections in January. In addition, UNAMI has
confirmed to us that SRSG de Mistura told Parliament Speaker
Ayad al-Samarraie on June 10 that it would not be possible to
organize a credible referendum by July 30.


3. (C) On June 15, the Chairman of IHEC, Faraj al-Haydari,
told us it is technically impossible for IHEC to administer a
referendum by July 31. IHEC, he stated, needs 60 days from
the issuance of a law and budget (Note: A law has not been
passed, and al-Haydari told us that no funds have been
transferred to IHEC's account. End Note). Al-Haydari made
slightly less categorical statements to the press on June 16,
telling al-Hayah newspaper that IHEC had not "received any
official requests, either from the government or the
Parliament, to postpone the referendum until further
notice... We are waiting for Parliament's decision concerning
the parties and referendum law, and want the procedures for
passing the two laws speeded up so that the commission can
complete its preparations, which require a long time, longer
than 60 days."


4. (C) On June 10, Deputy Prime Minister Barhim Salih told
Poloff that there was unanimous agreement within the United
Iraqi Alliance (the Shi'a political alliance) to postpone the
referendum. President Talabani's political advisor told
Poloff that the June 11 Political Council for National
Security (PCNS) meeting, which was attended by the leaders of
all major political blocs (except possibly the Sadrists),
decided to postpone the referendum until after the January 16
national elections. If there is political blowback on that,
they might consider holding the referendum at the same time
as the election. At a June 16 PCNS meeting (which included
the Sadrists),however, participants did not discuss the
referendum.


5. (SBU) On June 16, Aquil Abdul Hussein, a leader of the
Sadrist parliamentary bloc, issued a statement in which the
Sadrists emphasize their rejection of the Security Agreement
and their rejection of the referendum. Abdul Hussein noted
that the Sadrists reject the referendum because "the American
forces will not withdraw from cities and will not implement
Qforces will not withdraw from cities and will not implement
the articles of the agreement." He also criticized the
government's desire to delay the referendum, stating that the
government "fears the Iraqi people would reject the
referendum."


6. (C) Comment: While there are still some rumblings in
Parliament that a new law is required to nullify the
referendum requirement in the SA Approval Law (ref C),we
believe that at this point there is little momentum for a
referendum by the July 31 deadline. IHEC and UNAMI have made
clear that a credible referendum cannot take place by then,
and there appears to be little appetite to press forward with
the necessary legislation. The fact that the referendum was
not discussed at the June 16 PCNS is probably a good sign,
signaling that the issue is not high on leaders' agendas.
Nevertheless, it remains politically difficult for
politicians to publicly oppose the referendum, particularly
Sunni Arabs who included this requirement in the SA approval
law as a condition for supporting the SA. Furthermore,
postponement of the referendum does not preclude its taking

BAGHDAD 00001600 002 OF 002


place in January (as recommended by the Cabinet in its June 9
statement),and there is a possibility that some MPs will
attempt to attach a referendum provision to a national
election law. We will continue to follow this issue
carefully and focus our engagement on senior political
leaders. End Comment.
FORD