GOI ATTEMPTS TO LINK REFERENDUM ON SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 001520

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: GOI ATTEMPTS TO LINK REFERENDUM ON SECURITY
AGREEMENT TO JANUARY 2010 ELECTIONS

REF: BAGHDAD 1498

Classified By: Classified by Brian Shukan, Deputy Political Counselor f
or reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: While not yet definite, it appears likely
that the Security Agreement (SA) referendum will be delayed
to January 2010, to run concurrently with parliamentary
elections. The Cabinet publically announced its preference
June 9 that the SA referendum be held at the same time as
parliamentary elections, contrary to a previous public
statement by the Speaker of the Council of Representatives
(CoR) Ayad Al-Sammaraie (reftel) that it would be held by
July 30, as envisaged in the SA Law. According to an advisor
to President Talabani, the Prime Minister, President, and
Sammaraie agreed June 8 that the referendum should be delayed
to coincide with or come after parliamentary elections, and
told Chief Justice Medhat to announce a legal justification
for the delay. The CoR Legal Committee is reportedly still
working on a draft law. Another Maliki advisor told poloffs
June 9 that parliamentarians are not enthusiastic about
holding the referendum, but that the law and the language of
the referendum will be crafted to encourage support for the
SA.


2. (C) SUMMARY CONTINUED: While the referendum remains a
political hot potato, at this stage it seems that
negotiations between the CoR, cabinet and Iraqi High Election
Commission (IHEC) could delay final approval of a referendum
law beyond July 30. The CoR is likely to break for summer
recess at the end of July, which could further postpone a
decision on the referendum until September. END SUMMARY.

GOI LINKS REFERENDUM TO NATIONAL ELECTIONS
--------------


3. (C) Talabani advisor Aram Yarwessi told poloff June 10
that Talabani, the PM, CoR Speaker Ayad al-Sammarraei
and Chief Justice Medhat met June 8 to discuss the SA
referendum. Yarwessi said that Talabani, Maliki and
Sammarraie agreed that referendum should be delayed until
after the national elections, and that Talabani asked
Judge Medhat to attend to have an apolitical official to
support this position. According to Yarwessi, Talabani,
Maliki and Sammaraie asked Medhat to announce that it is
legal for the referendum to be delayed, although it is not
clear whether the Chief Justice agreed to do this.


4. (SBU) GOI Spokesman Ali Al-Dabbagh announced June 9 that
the Cabinet (Council of Ministers-CoM) "wishes to organize a
referendum (on the SA) on the same day as parliamentary
elections (in January 2010) to save money and
time." The Cabinet also approved the appropriation of $99
million to implement the referendum, although the CoR would
have to approve this expenditure.

CRAFTING A REFERENDUM THAT WILL BOLSTER THE SA
-------------- -


5. (C) Dr. Hassan Sunayd, a Da'wa MP (Legal and Security and
Defense Committees) and close confidante of PM Maliki,
told poloffs on June 9 that most political leaders, including
Sadr Trend MPs, were unenthusiastic about holding
the referendum. However it would be politically unfeasible to
amend the SA Law to obviate the referendum. He
concluded that the best administrative and political option
for the GOI in the current atmosphere was to postpone the
referendum to coincide with parliamentary elections. Sunayd
speculated that this course of action would allow
Maliki to publically advocate for the SA, because his future
is tied to the agreement. He said that the
referendum law is being drafted in a way that will manage
voter turnout requirements and will support the SA.
Qvoter turnout requirements and will support the SA.


6. (C) (COMMENT: While we commonly refer to the agreement as
the "Security Agreement," its official title in both Arabic
and English is: "Agreement Between the United States of
America and the Republic of Iraq on the Withdrawal of United
States Forces from Iraq and the Organization of their
Activities during their Temporary Presence in Iraq." We note
that if the referendum is portrayed as a vote in favor of the
"withdrawal agreement," it could be politically easier for
Iraqi politicians to urge a yes vote. END COMMENT).

UNAMI: REFERENDUM IS NOT FEASIBLE BEFORE JULY 30
-------------- ---


7. (C) UNAMI Election Advisor Sandra Mitchell told poloffs
that SRSG Staffan De Mistura would meet Speaker Sammarraie on
June 10 to convey UNAMI's technical assessment that there is
not sufficient time to organize a credible
referendum by July 30. (NOTE: As reported reftel, UNAMI

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staff previously told us that IHEC could administer a
referendum concurrently with Kurdish elections on July 25.
UNAMI's optimistic assessment was likely based on the
assumption that USAID-funded International Foundation for
Election Systems (IFES) would assist IHEC with the
referendum, which it will not. END NOTE.)
HILL