Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD1486
2009-06-07 08:45:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

RRT ERBIL: CANDIDATES AND COALITIONS FOR

Tags:  PGOV KDEM IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2458
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHDH RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #1486/01 1580845
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 070845Z JUN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3366
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 001486 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: CANDIDATES AND COALITIONS FOR
KURDISTAN REGION PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1170

This is an Erbil Regional reconstruction Team (RRT) cable.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 001486

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: RRT ERBIL: CANDIDATES AND COALITIONS FOR
KURDISTAN REGION PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS

REF: A. BAGHDAD 1170

This is an Erbil Regional reconstruction Team (RRT) cable.


1. (U) SUMMARY: In the 2005 KRG parliamentary elections,
the KDP/PUK coalition sailed to an easy majority and
effectively controls 80 of 111 seats today. This year, new
opposition groups provide secular and Islamic alternatives
for protest votes. However, the KDP/PUK is using the power
of the incumbency -- and then some -- to get the vote out.
END SUMMARY.

-------------- --------------
42 Entities Coalesce into 20 Lists and Five Coalitions
-------------- --------------


2. (U) There are currently 20 stand-alone entities (aka
lists) and five coalitions that have coalesced from the
original 42 registered political entities. Seven lists have
dropped out since registration: the Kurdistan Conservative
Democratic Party, the Christian Fraternity Gathering, the
Independent Toilers Party, the Bet Nahrain Democrat Party
(Chaldean),Shant Murad Muradian (Armenian),the White
Independent List and the Patriotic Democratic List (PDL)
Party. Some of the drop-outs were due to double registration
(the groups associated with the now-split Kurdistan Toilers
party both registered two names). A representative of the
Bet Nahrain (Chaldean) party informed the press that with
four Chaldean parties competing for five seats that it did
not make sense to have another. According to press reports,
the White Independent List head said that he dropped out
because there were other credible opposition lists.

--------------
The Party Lists
--------------


3. (U) The 20 stand-alone entities include one
Chaldean-Syriac Assyrian list, four Turcomen parties and a
single Armenian candidate. These minority lists will be
competing for the seats set aside for Christians, Armenians
and Turcomen.


4. (U) The most prominent opposition list is the Change
List, established by former PUK Deputy Secretary Nawshirwan
Mustafa. The Change list includes three candidates with name
recognition: Ms. Kwestan Mohammed Abdullah, the former head
of the PUK "Green Bloc" in the Parliament; IKP member Osman
Aula Qadir, Kwestan's predecessor as head of the "Green
Bloc"; and Mohamed Tawfiq Rahim, a former PUK Politburo
member.


5. (SBU) The Hewa list is believed to have members who are
sympathetic to the PKK, according to the Turkish Consul in

Mosul. RRT contacts have confirmed that Hewa is actually a
subgroup of the Kurdistan Democratic Solution Party (PCDK)
which has registered under another name because of the ban on
PCDK participation. The PCDK political party was outlawed by
a memorandum of understanding between the GOI and Turkey, and
the KRG has signed this memorandum as well. The registered
head of the Hewa party is Najiba Omer. This week, however,
the Hewa party was also banned by IHEC Baghdad officials.
The GOI Minister of State for National Security wrote a
letter to IHEC to substantiate the ban. The Hewa party has
countered with an official complaint made to the newly-formed
special court for elections in Kurdistan that will adjudicate
complaints.

--------------
The Coalitions
--------------


6. (U) The five coalitions represent:

-- The Islamic groups: The Service and Reform List comprise
the Kurdistan Islamic Group (KIK),the Kurdistan Islamic
Union (KIU),the Social Democratic Party of Kurdistan and
Future (which is the Qadir Aziz wing of the Kurdistan Toilers
party.) In 2005 the KIU was a member of the KDP/PUK
coalition; the KIK ran independently.

-- The Autonomy list of Chaldean Syriac Assyrians -- which
Q-- The Autonomy list of Chaldean Syriac Assyrians -- which
includes the Chaldean Assyrian Democratic list and the
Assyrian National Party.

-- Mini-parties: The Freedom and Social Justice coalition
includes the Kurdistan Toilers Party (the break-away wing,
considered to be aligned to the KDP),the Democratic Movement
for the People of Kurdistan, the Communist Party of
Kurdistani Iraq, the Democratic Movement of Kurdistan, and
the Kurdistan Independent Labor Party.


BAGHDAD 00001486 002 OF 003


-- The Governing Coalition: The simply named "Kurdistan
List" comprising the PUK and the KDP.

-- The Chaldean United list: Includes the Chaldean
Democratic Union Party and the Chaldean National Council.

--------------
What is New in 2009?
--------------


7. (SBU) In the 2005 elections, a multitude of "mini
parties" also ran, as well as parties associated with
religious and ethnic minorities. Some were aligned with the
KDP/PUK coalition; others ran for the seats designated for
minorities. Those that ran as part of the coalition were
given one or two seats by the ruling coalition. What is
distinctive about this year's race is that the KDP/PUK
coalition does not include any of these parties, and
therefore all of the coalition seats will be dedicated solely
to the PUK and KDP. The mini-parties will have a much harder
time under these circumstances (although most of these were
considered to be KDP or PUK "proxy parties" to begin with).

-------------- --------------
Toilers Toil On In a Bitter Dispute Over Who Owns the Name
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) The Toilers mini-party has been split, with one
group holding on to the name, while the other group, which
includes the Secretary General Qadir Aziz, took the
membership base. According to IHEC regulations, when a party
divides, the group that includes the party leader should be
able to retain the original name. In the case of the
Toilers, the KRG and KR Ministry of Interior intervened, and
decided that the spin-off group would be permitted to retain
the party's name. This oddity is most likely because of KDP
pressure to split the party in an effort to subvert the
Toilers' efforts to join the KIU/KIK coalition.

--------------
The Presidential Parties
--------------


9. (U) There are five candidates registered in the KRG
Presidential Race: Dr. Kamal Mamand Rasul Mirawdaly (a
Kurdish author, from the Raniyah district in Sulaimaniyah);
Halo Ibrahim Ahmed Fatah (brother of Hero Jalal Talabani);
Masood Mustafa Barzany (current Kurdistan President); Hussein
Garmiyani; Ahmed Muhamed Rasul Nabi (a businessman in Erbil,
colloquially called Safeen Sheikh Muhammed). A sixth
candidate, Ahmed Kurda, withdrew his candidacy on May 27.
Another candidate, university professor Kamal Saeed Qader, a
university professor, was disqualified for not having legal
residency in the Kurdistan Region.


10. (SBU) Although the campaign season has not officially
started, writer and educator Dr. Kamal Mirawdaly told RRT
staff that the two-party, two-family system in the KRG had
created a stranglehold on the people, and has caused them to
regress into a tribal mentality. He hopes to counteract this
trend by passing the KRG constitution in his first three
months as President, and creating a stronger parliament with
real legislative powers. Businessman Safeen Sheikh Muhammed,
reportedly an independent candidate not affiliated with any
political entity, stated: "We are a group of businessmen in
Kurdistan. I believe in running for the post of Kurdistan
Region President as an independent candidate."

--------------
Comment
--------------


11. (SBU) In the 2005 elections the KDP/PUK sailed to an
easy majority with 80 seats in the 111-seat body (the
"minority quotas" are nominally independent, but in reality
vote with the coalition.) Due to dissatisfaction with the
KDP/PUK, this year we expect that opposition lists,
coalitions and mini-parties may pick up as many as 30 seats.
In 2005, the Islamic parties were the only alternative to the
QIn 2005, the Islamic parties were the only alternative to the
KDP/PUK. The appearance of a secular alternative may well
draw away votes to the Change party from the Islamic parties
-- whether this will be zero-sum or whether the Change group
will tap into a new well of discontented voters remains to be
seen.


12. (SBU) Meanwhile, reports from the independent media
indicate that the PUK is pulling out all the stops to
counteract popular support for the Change list through the
power of patronage and the party's dominance over local
government in PUK-controlled Sulaimaniyah. These reports are
substantiated by anecdotal reports from RRT contacts in
Sulaimaniyah. In KDP territory, the government is also using

BAGHDAD 00001486 003 OF 003


the power of the incumbency (a contact reported that a visit
to the Ministry of the Interior found MoI employees busily
organizing KDP election material in the building.)


13. (SBU) RRT Team Leader has started a series of press/TV
interviews to emphasize the importance of meeting
internationally-recognized standards for the upcoming
elections, in particular, the ability of candidates and
voters to vote their conscience and campaign free from
intimidation and harassment.
FORD