MUTHANNA: MAJOR SHIA PARTIES LIKELY TO DO WELL IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000146

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: MUTHANNA: MAJOR SHIA PARTIES LIKELY TO DO WELL IN
PROVINCIAL ELECTION; ILLITERACY AND VOTE BUYING REMAIN
CONCERNS

REF: A. 08 BAGHDAD 2089

B. 09 BAGHDAD 102

C. 08 BAGHDAD 3842

D. 08 BAGHDAD 3759

Classified By: PRT Team Leader Brad Lynch for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

(U) This is a PRT Muthanna reporting cable.


1. (C/REL MCFI) Summary: The coming provincial elections in
Muthanna are expected to be marked by high voter turnout and
a low level of violence. The major political parties will
likely do well; the leading candidate for governor is from
the ISCI party. The high rate of illiteracy among the adult
population, allegations of vote buying, and the unwieldy
ballot are major concerns during this election season. In
order to partially alleviate the first concern, the PRT is
funding, via the Quick Response Fund (QRF),a sizeable voter
education program that will help the electorate vote for the
candidates of their choosing. These issues notwithstanding,
the PRT has high confidence that the election in Muthanna
will be viewed as credible. End summary.

Candidate and Voter Registration
--------------


2. (C/REL) As seen across Iraq, Muthanna voters have no
shortage of options in the January 31 provincial elections.
Well over 800 candidates from 50 political party/independent
lists will compete for 26 seats. Since the current
provincial council has 41 members, many current PC members
will not win re-election. Voter registration is reported to
be more than 300,000, which would account for about 90
percent of the adult population, but we have not been able to
verify the accuracy of registration numbers. Voters will
cast their ballots at one of more than 150 voting sites
throughout the province, located mostly at schools or other
government buildings.

Predicting the Race
--------------


3. (C/REL) It is extremely difficult to predict who will win
and lose in the upcoming elections, but some PRT sources in
Muthanna believe that the major parties -- ISCI, Da'wa, and
the Sadrist lists -- will do well. Other trustworthy
local sources tell the PRT that religious parties are not
likely to fare as well in 2009 as they did in 2005. Most
likely is that the leading figures in some religious parties
will depart the scene while their parties retain significant
support. Neither the governor nor the PC chairman is likely
to keep their current positions. Governor Marzook, nominally
independent, has fallen out of favor with ISCI, which
previously backed him. Abdal Al-Hassen Muhammad al-Dhalimi,
the current PC Chairman, is not likely to keep his leadership
position because of internal political issues.


4. (C/REL) The Sadrist "Integrity and Construction" list
comprises a number of well-known and respected leaders in the
community. The PRT's non-partisan sources believe that their
anti-corruption and social welfare platform will resonate
with a large segment of the electorate. In addition, Sadrist
imams have promoted this and one other Sadrist-aligned list
(the "Free Peoples Trend," ref B) during the past several
weekly sermons. The PRT expects these parties to do well
during the election cycle. In addition to the leading
religious parties, some localized lists headlined by a
popular political figure will do well. Chief among these are
the Middle Euphrates Gathering, headed by Sheikh Hakim Khazal
Khashan, and the Iraqi Constitutional Party, headed by Abid
al-Razzaq Hamood Beladey, the current mayor of Khidr.

The Next Governor
--------------


5. (C/REL) Jockeying for position to become the next governor
continues in earnest. The clear frontrunner is Latif Hassan
Qcontinues in earnest. The clear frontrunner is Latif Hassan
al-Hassani (ISCI),the brother of the previous governor who
was assassinated in 2007. According to PRT sources, he and
ISCI may be using cash and other inducements to solidify
support. This has seemingly not sullied his reputation;
indeed, contacts generally continue to view Latif as an
estimable figure. Sheikh Hakim of the Middle Euphrates
Gathering is another candidate for governor, but he probably
will not win because his previous struggles against
corruption have placed him at odds with other politicians
whose support he would need to win. The local Director
General for Health is also sometimes mentioned as a
gubernatorial candidate.

The Problem of Illiteracy

BAGHDAD 00000146 002 OF 003


--------------


6. (C/REL) Arguably, the most pressing concern for the
election is the very high illiteracy rate in the province.
As the PRT previously reported (ref C),more than a third of
the adult population (36 percent) in Muthanna is illiterate,
according to PC documents. The Governorate Electoral Office
(GEO) proposes to alleviate this problem by establishing an
'illiterate room' at each polling location staffed with GEO
staff who will help illiterates cast their ballots. They may
also allow literate relatives to help illiterate ones, but
this is still in discussion. As with all polling locations,
monitors may be present to witness the propriety of the
process.


7. (C/REL) The PRT is providing voter education via a Quick
Response Fund (QRF) project in Muthanna, in part to mitigate
this issue. Through January 20, a set of NGOs trained and
approved by the Iraqi High Electoral Committee (IHEC) has
conducted 288 seminars on the voting process in sites across
the northern part of the province. The PRT is also funding a
variety of IHEC- and GEO-approved written handouts,
brochures, posters, and billboards for distribution in the
major population centers. While these sessions will touch
thousands of voters in the process, it will not be enough to
overcome issues of illiteracy and ballot confusion by
Election Day.

Election Security
--------------


8. (C/REL) Election security is chief on the minds of U.S.
military, PRT, and local leaders. To that end,
representatives from the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry
Division, the three area PRTs (Dhi Qar, Maysan, and
Muthanna),the Iraqi Army, the Iraq Police, and local
election officials are meeting every other week to discuss
security issues and coordinate activities. In brief, Iraqi
Police will guard the more than 150 polling sites across the
province, the Iraqi Army will provide perimeter or outer ring
security. Among the key leaders with whom the PRT has spoken
in the past several weeks, no one believes that the election
will be marked by any appreciable violence (ref D). One
Iraqi politician mused to the PRT that passions might run
high, perhaps resulting in an occasional fistfight, but
nothing sparking deadly violence.

Allegations of Vote Buying
--------------


9. (C/REL) As noted above, the PRT has received reports that
some of the political parties are offering bribes to buy
votes. A recent Friday prayer sermon at a local mosque
aligned with Grand Ayatollah Sistani also addressed the
subject, condemning the practice. According to the
prevailing story, if a voter accepts payment from a party
representative, he or she must swear on the Quran to vote for
that party's candidates. The PRT does not know how
widespread an issue this is or how much vote buying will
influence the election.

Effective Leadership at the GEO
--------------


10. (C/REL) Strong leadership at the GEO has provided added
legitimacy for the election. The young, charismatic GEO
director, Mutamed Nimaa Abid al-Hassan al-Moosawi, is
task-oriented and quick to resolve problems in an even-handed
manner. In one recent episode, a woman working with one of
the PRT-funded NGOs providing voter education out of her home
in the al-Askari subdistrict was detained by Iraqi Security
Forces on January 10. After release later that day, she and
her husband went to discuss the incident with GEO Director
Mutamed, who immediately called the local Iraqi Police
general on speakerphone and resolved the situation by issuing
Qgeneral on speakerphone and resolved the situation by issuing
letters to those individuals and NGOs approved to provide
voter education. While only one example, the PRT has found
this kind of openness and problem-solving is commonplace in
the GEO.

Comment
--------------


11. (C/REL) With the election season in full swing, the PRT
expects an election that can be described as legitimate and
credible, although the allegations of vote buying are
disturbing. The illiterate vote is the most pressing
concern, but the GEO's solution of a separate room to help
the illiterate voter is a step in the right direction.
Ongoing efforts by the PRT and other organizations on voter
education will also help. Finally, during the election

BAGHDAD 00000146 003 OF 003


process, it is hard to understate the value of the GEO
director himself in legitimizing the election thus far. He
has been open and transparent to any and all interested
parties and will undoubtedly be a rising star in the
province. End Comment.
CROCKER