NINEWA: NINEWA IIP LEADER TELLS PMIN THEY ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2019
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: NINEWA: NINEWA IIP LEADER TELLS PMIN THEY ARE
THREATENED BY BOTH AL-QAIDA AND THE KURDISH PARTIES

Classified By: A/DCM Robert S. Ford. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message.


1. (C) Summary: The leader of the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP)
in Ninewa Province, Mohammad Shaker, told us January 8 that
both the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Al-Qaida Iraq
(AQI) routinely intimidate and attack members of his party.
The former has largely prevented IIP from campaigning in some
areas in the province, while the later has assassinated IIP
members. To combat the violence and intimidation, Shaker
said he will place observers at each of the province's voting
centers. Shaker also said that the new Provincial Council
(PC) would need to focus on economics to put an end to the
insurgency. Shaker said he would not rule out entering a
coalition with the KDP. IIP could be a sought after
coalition partner after the election, and it is conceivable
Shaker could be the next governor with support either from
the Kurdish parties or Hadba. End Summary.

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KDP AND AQI INTIMIDATION
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2. (C) On January 8, PMIN met with Muhammad Shaker, head of
the IIP in Ninewa. Shaker said that his party is under
threat from both AQI and the KDP. According to Shaker, the
KDP and the security forces under their command (Peshmerga
and the Kurdish secret police, or Assayish) prevent the IIP
from campaigning in Sinjar and Zummar in the west of Ninewa,
Al-Qosh and Sheikhan in the north and Makhmoor and Al-Gwair
in the south. Shaker also said that AQI is behind the
violence directed at the IIP in Mosul, which most recently
included the murder of one of their prominent supporters, who
was a pharmacist. According to Shaker, AQI controls the
Mosul neighborhoods of Zanjili, Bab al-Jadeed, Wahda and
Tahreer. Shaker said that the IIP is unable to protect
itself against the constant AQI threat in Mosul, in part
because his party does not have any connections with the
governor or the IA and therefore cannot obtain carry permits
for firearms.

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IIP TO DEPLOY THOUSANDS OF OBSERVERS
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3. (C) Shaker said, due to the intimidation and violence
that the IIP has suffered, he is concerned for his supporters
on Election Day. Shaker said that international observers
were essential to ensure transparency and protect his party
members from abuse once voting begins. Highlighting his
concern, Shaker said that he would deploy over 4,000
observers on Election Day - one for each voting station. IIP
PC member Yahya Mahjoub, who was also present at the meeting,
complained IIP political party observers are only allowed to
vote at the centers closest to their residences. It is
therefore difficult for IIP to send its observers to voting
stations across the province, Mahjoub said. Mahjoub
suggested that political observers should be treated like
elections workers, who can vote at the center where they
work. (Comment: Of course, treating political party
observers (PPOs) like election workers could also open up a
possible avenue for voter fraud, as PPOs could conceivably
rotate among election stations and cast a vote at each
station. If there are 4000 PPOs per party, this could
produce a statistically significant anomaly. End Comment.)


4. (C) PMIN said he was encouraged to hear that the IIP will
use so many observers. PMIN said that local observers would
be the most important part of discouraging Election Day
Qbe the most important part of discouraging Election Day
malfeasance because they will number in the thousands whereas
there will only be dozens of international observers. PMIN
suggested that the IIP should coordinate observation efforts
with other political parties for maximum effect.

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THE NEW PROVINCIAL COUNCIL
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5. (C) Shaker declined to specifically identify potential
political allies in the new PC, saying only that the IIP
would determine coalition partners based on election results.
Shaker said that his party wants to focus on economic
development, reconstruction, the delivery of essential
services, and unemployment. Shaker said that terrorism in
the province stems directly from its economic problems. If
the new PC could focus on fixing Ninewa's economic problems,
the insurgency would end in six months, Shaker said.


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6. (C) Comment: Without credible opinion polling, it is
difficult to assess IIP's chances in Ninewa. They seem
better organized than the smaller Sunni Arab parties, but
still must compete for Sunni Arab votes with Athiel
al-Nujaifi's Hadba party, which is expected to attract a
significant level of support through its tribal connections
and strong anti-Kurd campaign rhetoric. If IIP ends up as
one of the province's top three parties, along with Hadba and
the Kurdish "Brotherhood list," it could play kingmaker, and
Shaker could end up as governor in a ruling coalition that
includes IIP and either the Kurds or Hadba. Shaker is
keeping his options open. End comment.


CROCKER