Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
09BAGHDAD140
2009-01-20 06:37:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

ERBIL RRT: DOHUK IDPS SPEAK ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0255
PP RUEHBC RUEHDA RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHGB #0140/01 0200637
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 200637Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1289
INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000140 

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ERBIL RRT: DOHUK IDPS SPEAK ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team cable.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000140

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ERBIL RRT: DOHUK IDPS SPEAK ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS

This is an Erbil Regional Reconstruction Team cable.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Christian, Yezidi and Arab IDPs in Dohuk Province
want to participate in the upcoming provincial elections, but have
questions and doubts about the electoral process. Personal
experience of fraud in the 2005 elections makes many skeptical of
the legitimacy of election results. IDPs do not anticipate any
election-related violence in Dohuk Province but believe that
violence in Ninewa Province (from where most of the IDPs hail) could
heavily suppress voter turn-out there. Dohuk contains the largest
concentration of IDPs (relative to its size) in the Kurdistan Region
(KR) and has the highest number of IDP voters registered in the KR
(32,500). The Regional Reconstruction Team (RRT) has encouraged
local IHEC authorities to improve outreach to IDP communities in
Dohuk. End Summary.

MEETINGS WITH IDP GROUPS
--------------


2. (U) RRT Provincial Action Officer (RRTOff) met with
representatives of Arab, Christian and Yezidi IDP communities in
Dohuk on December 22 and 28 to discuss the upcoming provincial
elections. Although the KR will not hold elections in January, IHEC
will provide absentee voting services to IDPs in the KR. According
to the March 2008 UNHCR Working Group on IDPs Report, Dohuk has
approximately 238,000 IDPs, of which 130,000 arrived after December

2005. Dohuk is second only to Sulaimaniyah in number of IDPs in the
KR and has the highest concentration relative to the size of its
population. It also has the largest number of minority (primarily
Christian) IDPs (estimated at 16 percent). According to the Dohuk
GEO, Dohuk has 32,500 registered IDP voters - the largest number of
registered IDP voters in the KR. Eighty-five percent of those
registered IDPs are from Ninewa Province.

REGISTRATION PROBLEMS
--------------


3. (SBU) IDPs interviewed wanted to vote in the upcoming provincial
elections, but still had many questions about the process. Problems
with registration led them to conclude that the government was not
sincere in seeking their participation. RRTOff heard that some IDPs
had visited voter registration centers during the official
registration update period but had not been permitted to add their
names to the roster. (NOTE: RRTOff raised this issue with the
Dohuk GEO, who requested the names of the specific voter

registration. He noted, however, that anyone who had failed to come
to a voting center during the registration period would not be able
to vote on the day of the election. There appears to be some
confusion here as Iraqis registered as IDPs who hold a food ration
card would have been automatically registered to vote at designated
IDP polling centers. END NOTE.) Others complained that the
registration update period was too short to accommodate all of the
IDPs, and that it did not accommodate those IDPs who fled after the
uptick in Mosul violence in October.

QUESTIONS ON PROCESS
--------------

4. (SBU) In addition to problematic registration, it appeared from
the interviews that there are still significant gaps in
understanding of the electoral process. Most had never seen a
representative from the Dohuk Governorate Electoral Office (GEO),
and none had seen a mock-up of the ballot. Participants did not
know off-hand the location of voting centers. (Only the Yezidi IDPs
knew where their assigned voting centers were located, and that was
because the Yezidi cultural center held a special seminar on that
subject.) Logistical difficulties were also cited, such as a lack of
Qsubject.) Logistical difficulties were also cited, such as a lack of
transportation.

DOUBTS ON UTILITY
--------------



5. (SBU) Doubt as to the utility of the elections was a common
theme. Some IDPs questioned whether their votes would even be
counted if they did not cast their ballots in their provinces of
origin. Participants recalled specific instances of fraud (such as
money offered for votes) in the 2005 elections and questioned
whether votes would be counted as they cast them. They placed
little faith in voting center monitors because, "those who want to
commit fraud have already determined how they are going to do it,
long before the day of the election." Some IDPs expressed the view
that both the Government of Iraq (GOI) and the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG) wanted to use the elections to influence any
upcoming referenda on the disputed areas. A participant reported an
attempt by the Ishtar list to offer money in exchange for votes.
Participants had heard that the Kurdish Brotherhood List had done
this as well, but had no first-hand reports.

FEARS OF ELECTION-RELATED VIOLENCE

BAGHDAD 00000140 002 OF 002


--------------


6. (SBU) Representatives from all three communities believed that
the IDP elections in Dohuk would be peaceful and uneventful.
However, they uniformly expressed concerns about election-related
violence in Ninewa Province. Some estimated that as much as 90
percent of the population would stay away from the polls in Ninewa
province. (Comment: On the contrary, we think voter turn-out in
Ninewa will be robust. End comment.) They expressed fears that the
Iraqi Army and/or Iraqi Police in Ninewa were already infiltrated
with terrorists who would use violence to intimidate potential
voters from going to the polls. If the low-turnout that the IDPs
expected occurred, they would question the legitimacy of the
election's results. Arab IDP representatives said that the presence
of the U.S. military in Ninewa would send a message that the voting
centers were safe.

BEST POSSIBLE OUTCOME STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR MINORITIES
-------------- --------------


7. (SBU) Though discouraged by a problematic registration period and
expectations of an outcome that they already believe will fall short
of their hopes, the IDPs intended to go to the polls. Nonetheless,
Assyrian and Yezidi representatives complained that they had only
been allocated one seat each on the Ninewa Provincial Council.
Meeting participants said that their single representative would not
have the political weight necessary to influence provincial council
decisions, should their respective communities' interests run
counter to the majority. When asked if their communities would run
candidates on other lists, the representatives said that they would.
However, they did not believe those candidates would be in a
position to defend their respective communities' interests either
because the candidates would be beholden to the parties on whose
lists they ran. An informal tally showed that the Assyrian IDPs
would vote en masse for the Assyrian Democratic Movement candidate,
while the Yezidi IDPs seemed likely to support the Ninewa Kurdish
Brotherhood list.


8. (U) IDP groups reported that campaigning was limited to
television spots, with candidates appearing on stations affiliated
with their group. They had not seen any posters or other
"street-level" publicity.

MEETING WITH DOHUK GEO HEAD
--------------


9. (SBU) In a December 28 meeting, Bayar Doski, head of the Dohuk
GEO, reported to RRTOff that there will be 32 voting centers housing
96 voting stations at schools throughout the province. IHEC will
employ 725 people (teachers and lawyers) to supervise the elections.
Doski stated that information will be published through the local
media about the location of the voting centers approximately 10-20
days before the election (so that the information will be fresh in
the minds of the people.) Doski also reported that IHEC has been
encouraging the various media outlets in the KR to come to the IHEC
to apply for their poll-coverage accreditation.


10. (SBU) Mr. Doski explained that each of the GEOs implements an
information campaign designed by UNOPS, in which they engage
specific groups in the community on the electoral process. He has
been conducting those sessions with the Provincial Council, youth,
women and representatives from the religious communities, but
sessions are always poorly attended. He would rather have sessions
that specifically target the IDP community, but has not been given
the budget with which to do this. Doski was frustrated with the
Qthe budget with which to do this. Doski was frustrated with the
one-size-fits-all model that the Baghdad IHEC has created for the
provinces. He reported that he is not even allowed to engage the
local media without IHEC's permission, which he believes has
compromised his office's ability to publicize information about the
elections.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: Since the voter registration period began, both
the GEO and the IDPs the GEO serves have complained that IHEC has
neither the budget nor the flexibility to retool the program to meet
the needs of IDPs. Although Dohuk IDPs have relatively high rates
of registration relative to their population size, it is nonetheless
troubling to hear so many people (in an already small population)
having had negative experiences in the run-up to the election.
While the Dohuk GEO seems to be genuinely committed to following the
rules and hopes to do more outreach in the coming month, the crucial
period has already ended. RRT raised IDP concerns with Dohuk GEO
head, and he indicated that he would try to follow up with them.
RRT has also shared these concerns with United Nations Assistance
Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) contacts in Erbil. RRT will continue to
monitor election preparations and will follow up with IDPs after the
elections to ascertain their on-the-ground experience.

Crocker